MRNA Moderna, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
MRNA Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
•
Healthcare
•
Biotechnology
Current Price
$30.86
Analyst Target
$36.75
+19.1% Upside
52W High
$48.92
52W Low
$22.28
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 04, 2026
Market cap
$12.06B
P/E
N/A
ROE
-29.3%
Profit margin
-139.6%
Debt/Equity
0.08
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a deeply concerning financial profile: a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 indicates severe weakness in fundamental health, while the Altman Z-Score, though astronomically high at 5960148172.8, appears distorted—likely due to negative earnings and equity anomalies—rendering it unreliable despite being above the 3.0 safety threshold. Profitability metrics are sharply negative, with a -139.61% profit margin and -25.59% operating margin, reflecting ongoing operational distress. Revenue has collapsed by 45.4% year-over-year, and while recent quarters show improved earnings surprises, the long-term trend remains downward, with a 5-year total return of -72.4%. Insider selling and a 'hold' analyst consensus further reinforce caution.
Key Strengths
Exceptionally high Altman Z-Score suggests no immediate bankruptcy risk, though likely inflated by negative earnings and balance sheet distortions
Strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 3.92 and quick ratio of 3.51, indicating robust short-term financial flexibility
Low debt burden with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.08, providing strategic flexibility despite profitability challenges
Recent earnings surprises have been positive, with 3 out of the last 4 quarters beating estimates and an average surprise of 41.2%
Significant short-term price rebound: +22.6% over the past month, suggesting potential speculative or sentiment-driven recovery
Key Risks
Critically low Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 signals severe deterioration in core financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency
Deeply negative profitability: gross margin of -107.62%, profit margin of -139.61%, and ROE of -29.32% indicate fundamental business model distress
Revenue has plummeted by 45.4% year-over-year, reflecting loss of market demand, competitive erosion, or post-pandemic vaccine demand normalization
Forward P/E of -4.42 confirms lack of near-term earnings expectations, undermining traditional valuation approaches
Insider selling activity in the last 6 months, totaling $0.72M, signals lack of confidence among corporate insiders
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
19
Weak
20
35
25
15
0
AI Verdict
High-risk speculative position with deteriorating fundamentals and unreliable valuation signals
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, Negative profitability across all margins, Collapse in revenue growth, Distorted Altman Z-Score due to negative earnings, Insider selling and bearish technical trend
Confidence
88%
Value
20/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Price/Book of 1.29 suggests shares trade near book value
Watchpoints
- P/E and Forward P/E are negative or N/A, making valuation unreliable
- Graham Number is 'None' due to lack of earnings
- Price/Sales of 5.40 is high given negative earnings and declining revenue
Future
35/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Recent Q/Q EPS growth of +76.1% shows some earnings improvement
- Analyst target price of $36.75 implies 19.1% upside
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth is -45.40% YoY
- Forward P/E of -4.42 indicates no earnings recovery in near-term forecasts
- No reliable earnings growth estimates available
Past
25/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Some recent earnings beats (3 of last 4 quarters)
Watchpoints
- Historical earnings volatility with large misses (e.g., -364.4% surprise in Nov 2023)
- 5-year price return of -72.4% reflects sustained underperformance
- Profitability has been negative since at least 2023
Health
15/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current and quick ratios are strong (3.92 and 3.51)
- Debt/Equity ratio is very low at 0.08
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 indicates critical financial weakness
- ROE of -29.32% and ROA of -15.49% show capital inefficiency
- Gross and net margins are deeply negative
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend paid (Dividend Yield: N/A)
- Dividend Strength score of 0/100
- Payout ratio is 0.00% due to lack of dividends
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$30.86
Analyst Target
$36.75
Upside/Downside
+19.1%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MRNA and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-02
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MRNA
Moderna, Inc.
Primary
|
-72.4% | -82.8% | -26.5% | +1.2% | +22.6% | -1.1% |
|
BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.
Peer
|
-31.1% | -40.9% | -10.6% | +3.4% | +9.5% | -0.8% |
|
NBIX
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.
Peer
|
+46.7% | +17.1% | +2.0% | +8.9% | -7.5% | -3.2% |
|
BAX
Baxter International Inc.
Peer
|
-72.9% | -58.8% | -32.1% | -36.6% | +3.2% | +0.6% |
|
MOH
Molina Healthcare, Inc.
Peer
|
-17.4% | -44.0% | -37.9% | -25.5% | +19.7% | +8.3% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
-4.42
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.29
P/S Ratio
5.4
EV/Revenue
3.71
EV/EBITDA
-2.55
Market Cap
$12.06B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-139.61%
Operating Margin
-25.59%
Gross Margin
-107.62%
ROE
-29.32%
ROA
-15.49%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-45.4%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.08
Low debt
Current Ratio
3.92
Strong
Quick Ratio
3.51
Excellent
Cash/Share
$11.53
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-12
$N/A
2025-11-06
$-0.51
+76.4% surprise
2025-08-01
$-2.13
+28.3% surprise
2025-05-01
$-2.52
+18.9% surprise
Healthcare Sector Comparison
Comparing MRNA against 42 companies in the Healthcare sector
(5 bullish, 31 neutral, 6 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-29.32%
This Stock
vs
25.54%
Sector Avg
-214.8%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-139.61%
This Stock
vs
9.99%
Sector Avg
-1497.7%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.08
This Stock
vs
0.92
Sector Avg
-91.4%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-45.4%
This Stock
vs
9.8%
Sector Avg
-563.0%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
3.92
This Stock
vs
2.27
Sector Avg
+72.7%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MRNA
Moderna, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $12.06B | - | -29.3% | -139.6% | $30.86 | |
|
BMRN
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $11.42B | 22.1 | 9.1% | 16.8% | $59.45 | |
|
NBIX
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $14.02B | 33.56 | 15.0% | 16.0% | $140.6 | |
|
BAX
Baxter International Inc.
|
BEARISH | $10.02B | - | -4.7% | -3.1% | $19.5 | |
|
MOH
Molina Healthcare, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $9.67B | 10.99 | 19.7% | 2.1% | $178.46 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS | Director | Sale | 23,853 | $703,306 |
| 2025-12-11 | AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS | Director | Option Exercise | 23,853 | $259,998 |
| 2025-12-11 | BANCEL STEPHANE J | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 688,073 | $7,499,996 |
| 2025-12-09 | HUSSAIN SHAH ABBAS | Director | Sale | 504 | $13,910 |
| 2025-12-05 | KLINGER SHANNON THYME | Officer | Stock Award | 47,190 | - |
| 2025-12-05 | MOCK JAMES M | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 47,190 | - |
| 2025-12-01 | HOGE STEPHEN | President | Stock Award | 652 | - |
| 2025-12-01 | KLINGER SHANNON THYME | Officer | Stock Award | 233 | - |
| 2025-11-28 | HOGE STEPHEN | President | Stock Award | 2,047 | - |
| 2025-11-28 | KLINGER SHANNON THYME | Officer | Stock Award | 1,102 | - |
| 2025-11-28 | MOCK JAMES M | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 1,102 | - |
| 2025-10-03 | MOCK JAMES M | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 1,453 | - |
| 2025-10-02 | HUSSAIN SHAH ABBAS | Director | Stock Award | 1,439 | - |
| 2025-08-29 | HOGE STEPHEN | President | Stock Award | 651 | - |
| 2025-08-29 | KLINGER SHANNON THYME | Officer | Stock Award | 232 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
20 analysts
Morgan Stanley
2025-12-12
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Jefferies
2025-12-12
Hold
Piper Sandler
2025-11-21
Overweight
Overweight
RBC Capital
2025-11-21
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
Leerink Partners
2025-11-21
Underperform
Underperform
B of A Securities
2025-11-10
Underperform
Underperform
Barclays
2025-11-07
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
UBS
2025-10-23
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2025-10-23
Underweight
Underweight
Citigroup
2025-10-23
Neutral
Neutral