ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Key Strengths
Key Risks
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
ODFL trades at a discount to the industrials sector on P/E despite superior margins and lower leverage, suggesting relative value, though absolute multiples remain elevated for a company with negative growth
- P/E of 26.62 below sector average of 31.89 despite higher profitability
- Forward P/E of 22.42 suggests pricing in of earnings recovery
- High absolute valuation: P/E 26.6x and Price/Sales 5.08x leave little margin for error
- Lack of EV/EBITDA and ROIC data limits full capital efficiency assessment
Near-term growth metrics are negative and price momentum remains weak across 1Y to 1W horizons, though forward multiples and analyst targets suggest anticipation of a cyclical rebound in freight demand
- Analyst target price of $156.95 implies 18.6% upside, signaling confidence in recovery
- Forward P/E of 22.42 reflects expectation of earnings rebound
- Revenue growth of -4.3% YoY and Q/Q earnings decline of -12.2% point to ongoing softness
- No visible inflection in price trends: 50-day and 200-day moving averages unavailable but 1Y return of -40.4% shows deep underperformance
ODFL has demonstrated exceptional earnings execution over the past six years with consistent beats and margin expansion, but recent quarters show weakening trends amid a sharp 40.4% share price decline over the past year
- Long-term earnings consistency: 21 of last 25 quarters beat or met estimates
- High average earnings surprise of +5.9% over last 4 quarters and +6.2% over last 10
- Recent earnings misses: 2 of last 4 quarters missed or barely met expectations
- 1-year share price return of -40.4% underperforms both sector and broader market
ODFL’s financial health is best-in-class with negligible leverage and solid liquidity, significantly outperforming peers like NSC (1.16 D/E) and CARR (0.83 D/E), providing a strong buffer during economic downturns
- Near-zero leverage with Debt/Equity of 0.02, among the lowest in the sector
- Strong liquidity: Current ratio of 1.20 and quick ratio of 1.06 indicate solid short-term financial stability
- Missing total cash and debt figures limit full liquidity runway assessment
- No free cash flow or operating cash flow data available for trend analysis
ODFL maintains a conservative and sustainable dividend policy with a low payout ratio, though the 0.85% yield offers limited appeal in a sector where income generation is often a key consideration
- Low payout ratio of 22.13% ensures high sustainability and room for future increases
- Dividend yield of 0.85% provides modest income with strong coverage
- Yield is below peer average and may not attract income-focused investors
- Lack of 5-year yield history limits assessment of dividend growth policy
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ODFL and closest competitors.
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
Primary
|
+31.3% | -15.5% | -40.4% | -22.5% | -2.0% | -5.4% |
|
CPRT
Copart, Inc.
Peer
|
+41.6% | +32.4% | -28.4% | -35.6% | -7.8% | +1.4% |
|
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
Peer
|
+136.1% | +63.6% | -20.5% | -15.5% | -3.1% | -2.8% |
|
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
Peer
|
+43.0% | +27.2% | -26.9% | -28.0% | -5.1% | -5.9% |
|
FAST
Fastenal Company
Peer
|
+89.3% | +68.9% | +0.6% | -1.6% | -3.7% | -1.0% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
Industrials Sector Comparison
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $28.32B | 26.62 | 25.1% | 19.0% | $132.29 | |
|
CPRT
Copart, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $40.28B | 25.84 | 18.5% | 33.4% | $41.08 | |
|
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $44.46B | 25.97 | 46.7% | 9.7% | $926.21 | |
|
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $46.46B | 33.81 | 10.0% | 18.1% | $54.1 | |
|
FAST
Fastenal Company
|
NEUTRAL | $46.78B | 38.16 | 32.7% | 15.3% | $40.45 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 1,538 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 1,538 | - |
| 2025-08-29 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 1,538 | - |
| 2025-08-25 | CONGDON EARL E | Officer | Gift | 22,350 | - |
| 2025-08-21 | CONGDON EARL E | Officer | Gift | 4,840 | - |
| 2025-08-01 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 1,538 | - |
| 2025-07-01 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 1,538 | - |
| 2025-05-30 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 5,103 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | KASARDA JOHN D | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | CONGDON JOHN R JR | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | MILLER CHERYL S | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | AAHOLM SHERRY A. | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | GABOSCH BRADLEY R | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | STALLINGS WENDY T | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets