ODFL
NEUTRAL
$132.29
Live
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $156.96
(+18.6%)
$131.46
52W Range
$228.72
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$28.32B
P/E
26.62
ROE
25.1%
Profit margin
19.0%
Debt/Equity
0.02
Dividend yield
0.85%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
72%
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) trades at $132.29, down 40.4% over the past year amid declining revenue and earnings growth, despite maintaining industry-leading profitability with an 18.97% profit margin and 25.66% operating margin. The stock appears reasonably valued relative to peers, with a P/E of 26.62 below the sector average of 31.89, though forward P/E of 22.42 suggests some earnings recovery is priced in. While the company’s balance sheet is exceptionally strong (Debt/Equity: 0.02), recent negative growth trends and lackluster price momentum contrast with a robust historical earnings track record and consistent analyst target of $156.95 implying 18.6% upside. Neutral stance reflects balancing of high-quality fundamentals against cyclical headwinds in trucking and near-term growth challenges.
Key Strengths
Exceptional profitability: 18.97% net margin and 25.66% operating margin significantly above sector averages of 13.67% and 20.48% respectively
Superior return metrics: ROE of 25.06% outperforms peer average ROE of 31.90% despite lower leverage, indicating efficient capital use
Extremely conservative capital structure: Debt/Equity ratio of 0.02 provides substantial financial flexibility and resilience in downturns
Consistent earnings beat history: 21 out of 25 quarters beat or met estimates over last 6+ years, demonstrating operational predictability
Attractive valuation relative to quality: P/E of 26.62 below sector average of 31.89 while maintaining higher margins and lower leverage
Key Risks
Negative growth trajectory: Revenue down 4.3% YoY and earnings down 10.5% YoY indicate cyclical or structural demand weakness
Deteriorating price momentum: 1-year return of -40.4% and 6-month return of -22.5% reflect investor skepticism on near-term outlook
Forward earnings deceleration: Q/Q EPS growth of -12.2% most recent period raises concerns about margin sustainability
Valuation premium risk: Despite being below sector P/E, high absolute multiples (P/E 26.6x, Price/Sales 5.08x) increase sensitivity to growth misses
Limited analyst conviction: 22 analysts cover but no formal recommendation provided, suggesting lack of consensus on catalyst
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$156.95
+18.6% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
74
Strong
74
58
82
90
65
AI Verdict
ODFL presents a high-quality operator in the trucking sector with best-in-class margins and financial health, yet trades at a discount to its historical levels and peer group due to near-term growth headwinds; the $156.95 analyst target implies meaningful upside, but weak recent momentum and negative earnings growth constrain bullish conviction.
Key drivers: Profitability leadership (25.66% operating margin), Balance sheet strength (0.02 Debt/Equity), Valuation gap vs peers despite superior fundamentals
Confidence
75%
Value
74/100
ODFL trades at a discount to the industrials sector on P/E despite superior margins and lower leverage, suggesting relative value, though absolute multiples remain elevated for a company with negative growth
Positives
- P/E of 26.62 below sector average of 31.89 despite higher profitability
- Forward P/E of 22.42 suggests pricing in of earnings recovery
Watchpoints
- High absolute valuation: P/E 26.6x and Price/Sales 5.08x leave little margin for error
- Lack of EV/EBITDA and ROIC data limits full capital efficiency assessment
Future
58/100
Near-term growth metrics are negative and price momentum remains weak across 1Y to 1W horizons, though forward multiples and analyst targets suggest anticipation of a cyclical rebound in freight demand
Positives
- Analyst target price of $156.95 implies 18.6% upside, signaling confidence in recovery
- Forward P/E of 22.42 reflects expectation of earnings rebound
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth of -4.3% YoY and Q/Q earnings decline of -12.2% point to ongoing softness
- No visible inflection in price trends: 50-day and 200-day moving averages unavailable but 1Y return of -40.4% shows deep underperformance
Past
82/100
ODFL has demonstrated exceptional earnings execution over the past six years with consistent beats and margin expansion, but recent quarters show weakening trends amid a sharp 40.4% share price decline over the past year
Positives
- Long-term earnings consistency: 21 of last 25 quarters beat or met estimates
- High average earnings surprise of +5.9% over last 4 quarters and +6.2% over last 10
Watchpoints
- Recent earnings misses: 2 of last 4 quarters missed or barely met expectations
- 1-year share price return of -40.4% underperforms both sector and broader market
Health
90/100
ODFL’s financial health is best-in-class with negligible leverage and solid liquidity, significantly outperforming peers like NSC (1.16 D/E) and CARR (0.83 D/E), providing a strong buffer during economic downturns
Positives
- Near-zero leverage with Debt/Equity of 0.02, among the lowest in the sector
- Strong liquidity: Current ratio of 1.20 and quick ratio of 1.06 indicate solid short-term financial stability
Watchpoints
- Missing total cash and debt figures limit full liquidity runway assessment
- No free cash flow or operating cash flow data available for trend analysis
Dividend
65/100
ODFL maintains a conservative and sustainable dividend policy with a low payout ratio, though the 0.85% yield offers limited appeal in a sector where income generation is often a key consideration
Positives
- Low payout ratio of 22.13% ensures high sustainability and room for future increases
- Dividend yield of 0.85% provides modest income with strong coverage
Watchpoints
- Yield is below peer average and may not attract income-focused investors
- Lack of 5-year yield history limits assessment of dividend growth policy
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$132.29
Analyst Target
$156.96
Upside/Downside
+18.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ODFL and closest competitors.
Updated 2025-11-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
Primary
|
+31.3% | -15.5% | -40.4% | -22.5% | -2.0% | -5.4% |
|
HEI-A
HEICO Corporation
Peer
|
+61.4% | +53.7% | +4.0% | -16.6% | -1.1% | -7.1% |
|
HUBB
Hubbell Incorporated
Peer
|
+214.4% | +114.6% | +57.1% | +28.7% | +15.5% | +1.7% |
|
CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
Peer
|
+480.6% | +319.4% | +114.2% | +25.8% | +2.2% | -2.5% |
|
DOV
Dover Corporation
Peer
|
+63.5% | +60.1% | +33.9% | +27.3% | +4.5% | +2.6% |
ODF
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+31.3%
3Y
-15.5%
1Y
-40.4%
6M
-22.5%
1M
-2.0%
1W
-5.4%
HEI
HEICO Corporation
Peer
5Y
+61.4%
3Y
+53.7%
1Y
+4.0%
6M
-16.6%
1M
-1.1%
1W
-7.1%
HUB
Hubbell Incorporated
Peer
5Y
+214.4%
3Y
+114.6%
1Y
+57.1%
6M
+28.7%
1M
+15.5%
1W
+1.7%
CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
Peer
5Y
+480.6%
3Y
+319.4%
1Y
+114.2%
6M
+25.8%
1M
+2.2%
1W
-2.5%
DOV
Dover Corporation
Peer
5Y
+63.5%
3Y
+60.1%
1Y
+33.9%
6M
+27.3%
1M
+4.5%
1W
+2.6%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
26.62
Forward P/E
22.42
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
6.5
P/S Ratio
5.08
EV/Revenue
4.97
EV/EBITDA
15.81
Market Cap
$28.32B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
18.97%
Operating Margin
25.66%
Gross Margin
39.3%
ROE
25.06%
ROA
15.89%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-4.3%
Earnings Growth
-10.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-12.2%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.02
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.2
Good
Quick Ratio
1.06
Good
Cash/Share
$0.22
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-04
$N/A
2025-10-29
$1.28
+5.2% surprise
2025-07-30
$1.27
-1.2% surprise
2025-04-23
$1.19
+4.0% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing ODFL against 469 companies in the Industrials sector
(39 bullish, 174 neutral, 256 bearish)
P/E Ratio
26.62
This Stock
vs
98.24
Sector Avg
-72.9%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
25.06%
This Stock
vs
-19.38%
Sector Avg
-229.3%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
18.97%
This Stock
vs
6.65%
Sector Avg
+185.1%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.02
This Stock
vs
2.63
Sector Avg
-99.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-4.3%
This Stock
vs
71.29%
Sector Avg
-106.0%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.2
This Stock
vs
3.09
Sector Avg
-61.0%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $28.32B | 26.62 | 25.1% | 19.0% | $132.29 | |
|
HEI-A
HEICO Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $28.67B | 40.62 | 16.6% | 15.4% | $205.52 | Compare |
|
HUBB
Hubbell Incorporated
|
NEUTRAL | $29.52B | 33.56 | 24.5% | 15.2% | $555.34 | Compare |
|
CW
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $26.48B | 55.88 | 19.4% | 13.8% | $717.53 | Compare |
|
DOV
Dover Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $30.27B | 28.1 | 15.0% | 13.3% | $224.78 | Compare |
ODFL
Old Dominion...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$28.3B
P/E
26.6
ROE
25.1%
Price
$132.29
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 1,538 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 1,538 | - |
| 2025-08-29 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 1,538 | - |
| 2025-08-25 | CONGDON EARL E | Officer | Gift | 22,350 | - |
| 2025-08-21 | CONGDON EARL E | Officer | Gift | 4,840 | - |
| 2025-08-01 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 1,538 | - |
| 2025-07-01 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 1,538 | - |
| 2025-05-30 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 5,103 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | KASARDA JOHN D | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | GANTT GREG C | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | CONGDON JOHN R JR | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | MILLER CHERYL S | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | AAHOLM SHERRY A. | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | GABOSCH BRADLEY R | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
| 2025-05-21 | STALLINGS WENDY T | Director | Stock Award | 1,029 | - |
GANTT GREG C
Director
2025-10-31
1,538 shares
GANTT GREG C
Director
2025-10-01
1,538 shares
GANTT GREG C
Director
2025-08-29
1,538 shares
CONGDON EARL E
Officer
2025-08-25
22,350 shares
CONGDON EARL E
Officer
2025-08-21
4,840 shares
GANTT GREG C
Director
2025-08-01
1,538 shares
GANTT GREG C
Director
2025-07-01
1,538 shares
GANTT GREG C
Director
2025-05-30
5,103 shares
KASARDA JOHN D
Director
2025-05-21
1,029 shares
GANTT GREG C
Director
2025-05-21
1,029 shares
CONGDON JOHN R JR
Director
2025-05-21
1,029 shares
MILLER CHERYL S
Director
2025-05-21
1,029 shares
AAHOLM SHERRY A.
Director
2025-05-21
1,029 shares
GABOSCH BRADLEY R
Director
2025-05-21
1,029 shares
STALLINGS WENDY T
Director
2025-05-21
1,029 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
22 analysts
JP Morgan
2025-10-30
Neutral
Neutral
Citigroup
2025-10-30
Buy
Buy
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-30
In-Line
In-Line
Raymond James
2025-10-30
Outperform
Outperform
Wells Fargo
2025-10-30
Underweight
Underweight
Stephens & Co.
2025-10-30
Overweight
Overweight
Stifel
2025-10-28
Buy
Buy
Raymond James
2025-10-14
Outperform
Outperform
JP Morgan
2025-10-08
Neutral
Neutral
UBS
2025-10-03
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ODFL from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.