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TWFG

NEUTRAL
$19.75 Live
TWFG, Inc. · NASDAQ
Target $25.71 (+30.2%)
$16.56 52W Range $36.85

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 21, 2026
Market cap
$296.82M
P/E
37.26
ROE
13.9%
Profit margin
3.2%
Debt/Equity
0.05
Dividend yield
N/A

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
TWFG presents a dichotomy between a pristine balance sheet and a significant valuation premium. The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable financial health, supported by an exceptionally low Debt/Equity ratio (0.05) and high liquidity (Current Ratio 5.12). However, the stock trades at $19.75, which is substantially higher than both the Graham Number ($8.13) and the Intrinsic Value ($3.71). While strong revenue growth (35.8% YoY) and consistent earnings beats support a bullish analyst outlook, the bearish technical trend and valuation gap warrant a neutral stance.

Key Strengths

Extremely low leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.05
Strong liquidity position with a Current Ratio of 5.12
Robust top-line growth with 35.8% YoY revenue increase
Consistent earnings performance, beating estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters
High gross margins (84.86%) typical of efficient insurance brokerage models

Key Risks

Severe overvaluation relative to deterministic fair value models (Graham/Intrinsic)
Strongly bearish technical trend (0/100) and significant 1Y price decline (-38.2%)
High volatility in YoY earnings growth (-50.00%)
Lack of insider buying activity to signal confidence at current levels
Small market cap ($0.30B) increases susceptibility to price volatility
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$13.5
-31.6% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
39
Weak
Value
20
Future
75
Past
30
Health
70
Dividend
0
AI Verdict
Speculative Growth
Key drivers: Revenue Growth, Balance Sheet Strength, Valuation Gap
Confidence
80%
Value
20/100

Ref P/E 37.26, Graham Number $8.13

Positives
  • Forward P/E (18.66) is significantly lower than current P/E
Watchpoints
  • Price is 2.4x the Graham Number
  • Price is 5.3x the Intrinsic Value
Future
75/100

Ref Growth rates and Analyst Targets

Positives
  • 35.8% YoY Revenue Growth
  • Strong Q/Q Earnings Growth (85.2%)
  • Positive analyst target price of $25.71
Watchpoints
  • Inconsistent YoY earnings growth
Past
30/100

Ref Historical price performance

Positives
  • Consistent earnings surprises
Watchpoints
  • 1Y Change of -38.2%
  • 6M Change of -22.0%
Health
70/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score and Debt/Equity

Positives
  • Debt/Equity 0.05
  • Current Ratio 5.12
  • ROE 13.91%
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score is only 4/9 (Stable, not Strong)
Dividend
0/100

Ref Dividend Yield N/A

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • No dividend yield
  • 0% payout ratio

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$19.75
Analyst Target
$25.71
Upside/Downside
+30.2%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for TWFG and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-20
TWF
TWFG, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-10.3%
3Y
-10.3%
1Y
-38.2%
6M
-22.0%
1M
+7.1%
1W
+7.8%
JMS
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+30.4%
3Y
+1.1%
1Y
+45.7%
6M
+12.0%
1M
+4.5%
1W
+1.8%
BRW
Saba Capital Income & Opportunities Fund
Peer
5Y
+38.3%
3Y
+27.7%
1Y
+1.2%
6M
-12.8%
1M
+0.2%
1W
+0.1%
FUN
Sprott Focus Trust, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+76.1%
3Y
+49.8%
1Y
+51.6%
6M
+22.1%
1M
+2.6%
1W
+1.9%
GPA
General Purpose Acquisition Corp.
Peer
5Y
+0.3%
3Y
+0.3%
1Y
+0.3%
6M
+0.3%
1M
+0.2%
1W
0.0%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
37.26
Forward P/E
18.66
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
3.56
P/S Ratio
1.19
EV/Revenue
1.57
EV/EBITDA
7.13
Market Cap
$296.82M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 3.2%
Operating Margin 21.15%
Gross Margin 84.86%
ROE 13.91%
ROA 6.64%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +35.8%
Earnings Growth -50.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +34.6%
Q/Q Earnings Growth +85.2%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.05
Low debt
Current Ratio
5.12
Strong
Quick Ratio
4.55
Excellent
Cash/Share
$10.38

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.1B
Gross Margin
31.3%
Op. Margin
12.1%
Net Margin
4.7%
Total Assets
$0.4B
Liabilities
$0.1B
Equity
$0.1B
Debt/Equity
0.67x
Operating CF
$0.0B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$0.0B
FCF Yield
41%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-07
$N/A
2026-02-25
$0.3
+58.3% surprise
2025-11-12
$0.23
+24.2% surprise
2025-08-12
$0.2
+16.2% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing TWFG against 579 companies in the Financial Services sector (106 bullish, 239 neutral, 234 bearish)
P/E Ratio
37.26
This Stock
vs
41.68
Sector Avg
-10.6% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
13.91%
This Stock
vs
-0.24%
Sector Avg
-5824.8% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
3.2%
This Stock
vs
47.47%
Sector Avg
-93.3% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.05
This Stock
vs
1.36
Sector Avg
-96.4% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
35.8%
This Stock
vs
39.3%
Sector Avg
-8.9% (Slower)
Current Ratio
5.12
This Stock
vs
3.65
Sector Avg
+40.2% (Stronger)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

NOLAN KATHERINE C
Chief Operating Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-31
12,500 shares
FERRACONE ROBIN A
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-31
4,000 shares
DOAK J MICHAEL
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-31
4,000 shares
WONG JANET S
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-31
4,000 shares
PADGETT EUGENE
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-31
3,250 shares
ZWINGGI JANICE E.
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-31
12,500 shares
BENES JULIE E.
General Counsel
Stock Award
2026-03-31
5,000 shares
BUNCH CHARLES ALEXANDER
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-31
5,000 shares
BUNCH RICHARD F. III
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-31
31,500 shares
ANDERSON JONATHAN JAMES
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-31
4,000 shares
BUNCH MICHELLE CAROLINE
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-31
31,500 shares
VIJAYA GOPAL MOHAN BABU
Chief Technology Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-31
3,250 shares
MCGUIRE ANDREW VINCENT
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-31
4,000 shares
VIJAYA GOPAL MOHAN BABU
Chief Technology Officer
Stock Award
2025-12-01
427 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2026-04-10

TWFG filed a Definitive Proxy Statement on April 10, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information to vote on corporate matters at the upcoming annual meeting.

10-K
10-K
2026-03-10

TWFG filed its annual 10-K report on March 10, 2026. Specific financial highlights and risk factors were not provided in the available excerpts, though they are detailed within the filing's MD&A and Risk Factors sections.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-25

TWFG filed an 8-K on February 25, 2026, likely to announce its annual financial results for the preceding fiscal year.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-12

TWFG is classified as an emerging growth company under the JOBS Act, allowing it to utilize reduced public company reporting requirements and delayed adoption of certain accounting standards. A primary risk associated with this status is the company's current exemption from requiring an independent audit of its internal control over financial reporting.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-12

TWFG filed an 8-K on November 12, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-08-13

TWFG is classified as an emerging growth company, allowing it to utilize JOBS Act exemptions to reduce public reporting requirements and delay the adoption of certain accounting standards. A notable risk associated with this status is the company's exemption from requiring an independent audit of its internal controls over financial reporting. No specific financial performance metrics were provided in the available excerpts.

8-K
8-K
2025-08-12

TWFG filed an 8-K on August 12, 2025, likely to announce its second-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-05-28
10-Q
10-Q
2025-05-13

TWFG is classified as an emerging growth company under the JOBS Act, allowing it to utilize exemptions from certain public company reporting requirements and delay the adoption of specific accounting standards. A primary risk associated with this status is the company's exemption from requiring an independent audit of its internal control over financial reporting.

8-K
8-K
2025-05-13

TWFG filed an 8-K on May 13, 2025, likely to announce its first-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-05-02
DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2025-04-11
8-K
8-K
2025-04-08
10-K
10-K
2025-03-27
8-K
8-K
2025-03-19
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
7 analysts
JP Morgan
2026-04-09
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
UBS
2026-04-08
Maintains
Buy Buy
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-04-07
Maintains
Market Perform Market Perform
Morgan Stanley
2026-04-06
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
UBS
2026-03-09
Maintains
Buy Buy
Morgan Stanley
2026-03-05
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Piper Sandler
2026-02-27
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Piper Sandler
2026-02-23
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
JP Morgan
2025-11-17
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Morgan Stanley
2025-11-17
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning TWFG from our newsroom.

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