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WMG

NEUTRAL
$28.99 Live
Warner Music Group Corp. · NASDAQ
Target $36.18 (+24.8%)
$23.34 52W Range $34.63
Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 24, 2026
Market cap
$15.14B
P/E
50.86
ROE
39.8%
Profit margin
4.4%
Debt/Equity
5.56
Dividend yield
2.62%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
WMG exhibits a significant divergence between its fundamental value and market pricing. With a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 (Stable) and a Graham Number of $4.21, the stock is trading at a massive premium to its defensive fair value. While strong ROE and a low PEG ratio suggest growth potential, the company's financial health is strained by a high Debt/Equity ratio of 5.56 and an unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 129.82%.

Key Strengths

Strong Return on Equity (ROE) of 39.84%
Positive revenue growth of 10.40% YoY
Attractive PEG ratio of 0.77, suggesting growth is undervalued relative to price
Significant expected earnings recovery indicated by Forward P/E (16.40) vs Current P/E (50.86)
Strong analyst consensus with a target price of $36.18

Key Risks

Extreme leverage with a Debt/Equity ratio of 5.56
Liquidity risk indicated by a Current Ratio of 0.70
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 129.82%
Negative earnings growth (-25.90% YoY)
Severe overvaluation relative to Graham Number ($4.21) and Intrinsic Value ($3.99)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$14.79
-49.0% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
33
Weak
Value
20
Future
65
Past
40
Health
30
Dividend
10
AI Verdict
Speculative Growth
Key drivers: High leverage, Valuation gap, Revenue growth, Forward P/E compression
Confidence
90%
Value
20/100

Ref P/E 50.86, PEG 0.77, Graham Number $4.21

Positives
  • Low PEG ratio
Watchpoints
  • P/E of 50.86 is high
  • Price is ~7x the Graham Number
Future
65/100

Ref Growth rates and Forward P/E

Positives
  • 10.4% Revenue growth
  • Forward P/E suggests earnings recovery
Watchpoints
  • Recent negative earnings growth
Past
40/100

Ref Historical price trends

Positives
  • Consistent revenue beats in several quarters
Watchpoints
  • 5-Year price change of -16.1%
Health
30/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score 4/9, Debt/Equity 5.56

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score is stable (4/9)
Watchpoints
  • Debt/Equity 5.56
  • Current Ratio 0.70
Dividend
10/100

Ref Yield 2.62%, Payout 129.82%

Positives
  • Yield of 2.62%
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio of 129.82% is unsustainable

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$28.99
Analyst Target
$36.18
Upside/Downside
+24.8%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for WMG and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-23
WMG
Warner Music Group Corp.
Primary
5Y
-16.1%
3Y
-0.9%
1Y
+4.0%
6M
-11.9%
1M
+22.6%
1W
-2.2%
NWS
News Corporation
Peer
5Y
-0.8%
3Y
+49.8%
1Y
-3.2%
6M
-4.3%
1M
+4.7%
1W
+1.8%
NWS
News Corporation
Peer
5Y
+22.2%
3Y
+70.4%
1Y
-3.8%
6M
-2.2%
1M
+6.5%
1W
+1.6%
TIG
Millicom International Cellular S.A.
Peer
5Y
+166.5%
3Y
+395.8%
1Y
+187.8%
6M
+84.1%
1M
+18.8%
1W
+0.4%
ROK
Roku, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-71.5%
3Y
+43.8%
1Y
+34.3%
6M
-5.5%
1M
-3.5%
1W
-1.0%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
50.86
Forward P/E
16.4
PEG Ratio
0.77
P/B Ratio
20.99
P/S Ratio
2.2
EV/Revenue
2.78
EV/EBITDA
12.9
Market Cap
$15.14B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 4.43%
Operating Margin 17.77%
Gross Margin 45.87%
ROE 39.84%
ROA 7.12%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +10.4%
Earnings Growth -25.9%
Q/Q Revenue Growth +10.44%
Q/Q Earnings Growth -25.4%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
5.56
High debt
Current Ratio
0.7
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.49
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.44

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$1.8B
Gross Margin
46.4%
Op. Margin
17.8%
Net Margin
9.6%
Total Assets
$10.0B
Liabilities
$9.2B
Equity
$0.7B
Debt/Equity
12.75x
Operating CF
$0.4B
CapEx
$-0.1B
Free Cash Flow
$0.4B
FCF Yield
89%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-07
$N/A
2026-02-05
$0.43
+6.9% surprise
2025-11-20
$0.51
+54.5% surprise
2025-08-07
$0.25
-16.5% surprise

Communication Services Sector Comparison

Comparing WMG against 173 companies in the Communication Services sector (13 bullish, 50 neutral, 110 bearish)
P/E Ratio
50.86
This Stock
vs
61.24
Sector Avg
-16.9% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
39.84%
This Stock
vs
-47.96%
Sector Avg
-183.1% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
4.43%
This Stock
vs
-8.31%
Sector Avg
-153.3% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
5.56
This Stock
vs
1.44
Sector Avg
+286.0% (Higher)
Revenue Growth
10.4%
This Stock
vs
602.37%
Sector Avg
-98.3% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.7
This Stock
vs
2.24
Sector Avg
-68.7% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

WMG Warner Music Group Corp.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$15.1B
P/E
50.9
ROE
39.8%
Price
$28.99
NWSA News Corporation
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$14.6B
P/E
32.5
ROE
6.3%
Price
$25.33
 Compare with WMG
NWS News Corporation
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$16.0B
P/E
37.4
ROE
6.3%
Price
$29.15
 Compare with WMG
TIGO Millicom...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$14.0B
P/E
10.4
ROE
37.9%
Price
$83.43
 Compare with WMG
ROKU Roku, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$13.9B
P/E
160.4
ROE
3.4%
Price
$94.62
 Compare with WMG

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

DUBUC-KIZILBASH NANCY
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-04
6,186 shares
LYNTON MICHAEL M
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-04
9,014 shares
DOPFNER MATHIAS
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-04
6,186 shares
KURZMAN CECELIA
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-04
6,186 shares
KREIZ YNON
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-04
6,186 shares
HERTZ NOREENA
Director
Stock Award
2026-03-04
6,186 shares
KARP HANNAH JASMINE
Officer
Stock Award
2026-02-12
19,225 shares
KYNCL ROBERT
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-02
339,635 shares
HIGGINSON CARLETTA
Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-02
116,949 shares
ROBINSON PAUL M. J.D.
General Counsel
Stock Award
2026-01-02
48,062 shares
MARSHALL CARIANNE
Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-02
112,144 shares
MOOT GUY
Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-02
112,144 shares
OSHEROVA MARIA
Officer
Stock Award
2026-01-02
59,276 shares
ZERZA ARMIN
Chief Financial Officer
Buy
2025-12-11
35,778 shares · $1,006,077
BLAVATNIK VALENTIN
Director
Buy
2025-12-02
35,810 shares · $998,383
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

8-K
8-K
2026-03-11
8-K
8-K
2026-03-06

Warner Music Group filed an 8-K on March 6, 2026, likely to announce its quarterly or annual financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-03

Warner Music Group (WMG) filed an 8-K on March 3, 2026, likely to announce its quarterly or annual financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2026-02-09

Warner Music Group (WMG) filed its 10-Q on February 9, 2026. While specific financial metrics were not provided in the excerpt, the filing includes a dedicated section for risk factors under Item 1A.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-05

Warner Music Group filed an 8-K on February 5, 2026, likely to announce its quarterly or annual financial results.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-05

Warner Music Group filed an 8-K on February 5, 2026, likely to announce its quarterly or annual financial results.

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2026-01-20

Warner Music Group (WMG) filed a definitive proxy statement on January 20, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information and voting materials for an upcoming meeting.

8-K
8-K
2025-12-01
10-K
10-K
2025-11-20

Warner Music Group (WMG) filed its 10-K on November 20, 2025, detailing its business operations, financial condition, and risk factors. The provided excerpts do not contain specific financial metrics or risk descriptions, only references to the relevant sections of the filing.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-20
8-K
8-K
2025-11-07
8-K
8-K
2025-08-07
10-Q
10-Q
2025-08-07
8-K
8-K
2025-07-01
8-K
8-K
2025-05-16
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
17 analysts
Morgan Stanley
2026-04-21
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Guggenheim
2026-03-31
Maintains
Buy Buy
Scotiabank
2026-02-13
up
Sector Perform Sector Outperform
Citigroup
2026-01-21
Maintains
Buy Buy
Morgan Stanley
2025-12-18
up
Equal-Weight Overweight
Jefferies
2025-12-11
Maintains
Buy Buy
B of A Securities
2025-11-21
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Bernstein
2025-10-30
Maintains
Outperform Outperform

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning WMG from our newsroom.

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