XEL Xcel Energy Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
XEL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NASDAQ
•
Utilities
•
Utilities - Regulated Electric
Current Price
$80.58
Analyst Target
$88.35
+9.6% Upside
52W High
$83.01
52W Low
$62.58
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$47.67B
P/E
24.57
ROE
9.4%
Profit margin
13.5%
Debt/Equity
1.68
Dividend yield
2.83%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Xcel Energy (XEL) trades near its 52-week high at $80.58, supported by solid long-term price performance (3Y +32.5%, 1Y +20.8%) and a 2.83% dividend yield, but faces near-term headwinds with declining earnings (YoY EPS -29.6%) and inconsistent earnings surprises, including a -33.5% miss in Q3 2025. Valuation appears stretched relative to peers, with a P/E of 24.57 above the sector average of 21.85, despite weaker earnings growth than most comparables. The company maintains strong operating margins (26.62%) and regulatory visibility, but elevated leverage (Debt/Equity 1.68 vs peer avg 1.53) and weak liquidity (Current Ratio 0.80) constrain financial flexibility. Analysts are constructive with a $88.35 target implying 9.6% upside, though insider activity is neutral and recent earnings volatility raises execution concerns.
Key Strengths
Operating margin of 26.62% exceeds sector average and all key peers, reflecting disciplined cost management and regulated pricing power
Revenue growth of 7.40% YoY is supported by rate base expansion and clean energy investments, in line with sector tailwinds
Dividend yield of 2.83% is attractive within the utilities sector and backed by a sustainable 68.83% payout ratio
Strong historical total returns: +32.5% over 3 years and +20.8% over 1 year, outperforming broader market and peer median
Profitability metrics remain robust with gross margin at 45.03% and ROE of 9.45%, close to sector average of 9.93%
Key Risks
Earnings contraction of -27.20% YoY and -29.6% EPS decline raise concerns about margin pressure and regulatory lag
Valuation premium: P/E of 24.57 is 12.4% above sector average (21.85) despite below-average earnings growth and weaker momentum than peers like AEP (+33.9% 1Y)
Weak liquidity profile with Current Ratio of 0.80 and Quick Ratio of 0.48, indicating potential working capital strain
High leverage at Debt/Equity of 1.68, above both sector average (1.53) and credit-sensitive peers like SRE (0.81), increasing refinancing risk
Earnings volatility and declining trend in recent quarters: 3 of last 4 beats missed, with average surprise of -8.62%, signaling deteriorating forecasting accuracy
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$82.5
+2.4% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
65
Strong
58
62
70
56
80
AI Verdict
XEL presents a mixed profile: premium valuation and weakening earnings momentum offset by strong operating margins, dividend appeal, and solid long-term returns; it trades above sector averages on P/E yet lags faster-growing peers like AEP and SRE on growth and ROE, suggesting limited rerating potential near-term
Key drivers: Premium valuation relative to growth trajectory, Resilient operating performance and regulated cash flows, Dividend yield and capital allocation discipline
Confidence
75%
Value
58/100
XEL trades at a valuation premium to the sector despite below-average earnings growth and ROE, making it less compelling on a risk-adjusted basis compared to higher-quality names like AEP (P/E 17.76, ROE 12.92%)
Positives
- Forward P/E of 21.04 offers some de-rating from current 24.57, implying earnings recovery is priced in
- Price/Book of 2.25 is in line with sector dynamics and reflects asset-heavy utility model
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 24.57 is significantly above sector average of 21.85 and higher than higher-growth peers like SRE (28.31) despite inferior revenue growth
- Lack of EV/EBITDA and cash flow data limits full valuation triangulation, increasing uncertainty
Future
62/100
Despite solid revenue momentum, earnings trajectory has deteriorated sharply, with price appreciation (+20.8% 1Y) outpacing fundamentals, creating potential for multiple compression if recovery delays
Positives
- Revenue growth of 7.40% YoY indicates continued rate base expansion and customer demand growth
- Forward P/E of 21.04 suggests market expects earnings recovery, supported by clean energy investment cycle
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth of -27.20% YoY and -23.20% Q/Q indicate near-term profitability headwinds, possibly from O&M inflation or regulatory lag
- Recent earnings misses, including a -33.5% surprise in Q3 2025, undermine confidence in near-term guidance
Past
70/100
XEL has delivered consistent margin performance and solid long-term returns, but recent earnings volatility and declining EPS growth break a historically stable pattern, increasing uncertainty
Positives
- Consistent profitability with stable gross and operating margins over time, indicating pricing power and cost control
- Long-term share price performance is strong: +32.5% over 3 years and +26.3% over 5 years, reflecting reliable capital appreciation
Watchpoints
- Earnings surprise trend is deteriorating: only 1 of last 4 quarters beat estimates, with an average miss of -8.62%
- YoY EPS growth of -29.6% marks a sharp reversal from prior stability, raising sustainability questions
Health
56/100
XEL’s financial health is constrained by above-average leverage and weak liquidity ratios compared to peers, increasing vulnerability to rate hikes or capex overruns
Positives
- Debt levels are typical for a regulated utility with capital-intensive infrastructure investment needs
- Operating cash flow is likely stable given regulated model, though exact figures are unavailable
Watchpoints
- Debt/Equity of 1.68 is above sector average (1.53) and peers like SRE (0.81), increasing interest rate sensitivity
- Current Ratio of 0.80 and Quick Ratio of 0.48 indicate tight liquidity, potentially limiting operational flexibility
Dividend
80/100
The dividend remains a key strength with a healthy yield and reasonable payout ratio, though earnings weakness could constrain future increases relative to peers like AEP
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.83% is attractive in the current rate environment and exceeds the sector average implied yield (~2.5%)
- Payout ratio of 68.83% is sustainable for a regulated utility and within historical norms for the sector
Watchpoints
- Earnings decline (-27.20%) increases pressure on payout coverage, potentially limiting near-term dividend growth
- No data on dividend growth streak or historical increases, reducing visibility into policy consistency
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$80.58
Analyst Target
$88.35
Upside/Downside
+9.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for XEL and closest competitors.
Updated 2025-11-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
XEL
Xcel Energy Inc.
Primary
|
+26.3% | +32.5% | +20.8% | +13.1% | -1.5% | -0.4% |
|
EXC
Exelon Corporation
Peer
|
+77.4% | +34.4% | +24.9% | +6.0% | -3.1% | +0.3% |
|
D
Dominion Energy, Inc.
Peer
|
-12.6% | +19.5% | +12.9% | +11.2% | -1.8% | -1.7% |
|
SRE
Sempra
Peer
|
+59.5% | +30.4% | +5.0% | +20.4% | -0.3% | -1.8% |
|
AEP
American Electric Power Company, Inc.
Peer
|
+63.3% | +52.4% | +33.9% | +19.6% | +3.1% | +0.7% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
24.57
Forward P/E
21.04
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.25
P/S Ratio
3.35
EV/Revenue
5.78
EV/EBITDA
14.43
Market Cap
$47.67B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
13.46%
Operating Margin
26.62%
Gross Margin
45.03%
ROE
9.45%
ROA
2.24%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+7.4%
Earnings Growth
-27.2%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-23.2%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.68
High debt
Current Ratio
0.8
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.48
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.79
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-05
$N/A
2025-10-30
$0.88
-33.5% surprise
2025-07-31
$0.75
+16.3% surprise
2025-04-24
$0.84
-8.6% surprise
Utilities Sector Comparison
Comparing XEL against 8 companies in the Utilities sector
(3 bullish, 5 neutral, 0 bearish)
P/E Ratio
24.57
This Stock
vs
21.93
Sector Avg
+12.0%
(Premium)
Return on Equity (ROE)
9.45%
This Stock
vs
9.78%
Sector Avg
-3.4%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
13.46%
This Stock
vs
16.37%
Sector Avg
-17.8%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.68
This Stock
vs
1.55
Sector Avg
+8.3%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
7.4%
This Stock
vs
9.16%
Sector Avg
-19.2%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.8
This Stock
vs
0.85
Sector Avg
-6.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
XEL
Xcel Energy Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $47.67B | 24.57 | 9.4% | 13.5% | $80.58 | |
|
EXC
Exelon Corporation
|
BULLISH | $46.32B | 16.47 | 10.3% | 11.6% | $45.94 | |
|
D
Dominion Energy, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $51.98B | 19.79 | 9.2% | 16.8% | $60.56 | |
|
SRE
Sempra
|
NEUTRAL | $60.19B | 28.31 | 6.8% | 15.8% | $92.0 | |
|
AEP
American Electric Power...
|
BULLISH | $64.88B | 17.76 | 12.9% | 17.2% | $121.3 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | CASEY LYNN | Director | Stock Award | 510 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | PARDEE CHARLES G | Director | Stock Award | 586 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | BURKHART MEGAN D | Director | Stock Award | 605 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | WELSH TIMOTHY A | Director | Stock Award | 473 | - |
| 2025-09-26 | KAMPLING PATRICIA L | Director | Stock Award | 363 | - |
| 2025-09-04 | LAMB MICHAEL G. | Officer | Gift | 24,508 | - |
| 2025-06-27 | PARDEE CHARLES G | Director | Stock Award | 686 | - |
| 2025-06-27 | BURKHART MEGAN D | Director | Stock Award | 647 | - |
| 2025-06-27 | WELSH TIMOTHY A | Director | Stock Award | 577 | - |
| 2025-06-27 | CASEY LYNN | Director | Stock Award | 573 | - |
| 2025-06-27 | KAMPLING PATRICIA L | Director | Stock Award | 388 | - |
| 2025-06-18 | LONG RYAN J | Officer | Stock Award | 3,395 | - |
| 2025-06-18 | CASEY LYNN | Director | Gift | 1,000 | - |
| 2025-05-22 | CASEY LYNN | Director | Stock Award | 2,431 | - |
| 2025-05-22 | KEHL GEORGE J | Director | Stock Award | 2,431 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
17 analysts
Barclays
2025-11-05
Overweight
Overweight
Citigroup
2025-11-03
Buy
Buy
UBS
2025-10-31
Neutral
Neutral
Mizuho
2025-10-27
Outperform
Outperform
Jefferies
2025-10-16
Buy
Buy
Keybanc
2025-10-15
Overweight
Overweight
BMO Capital
2025-10-15
Outperform
Outperform
UBS
2025-10-10
Neutral
Neutral
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-07
Outperform
Barclays
2025-09-29
Overweight
Overweight