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AA

BULLISH
$62.21 Live
Alcoa Corporation · NYSE
Target $56.33 (-9.4%)
$21.53 52W Range $66.95

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AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
Alcoa Corporation exhibits strong financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating robust operational and balance sheet strength. Despite the absence of an Altman Z-Score, the company shows solid profitability metrics, including a 19.16% ROE and improving earnings growth, while trading below its growth-based intrinsic value of $132.46. The stock is currently priced at $62.21, above the conservative Graham Number of $49.75, suggesting valuation is supported by strong fundamentals and cyclical tailwinds in aluminum. Analysts concur with a 'buy' recommendation, and recent price momentum is strongly positive, although technical trend sentiment remains weak.

Key Strengths

Exceptionally high Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, signaling strong financial health and operational efficiency
Impressive year-over-year earnings growth of 131.6% and Q/Q EPS surge of +6400%, reflecting strong recovery and leverage to aluminum pricing
Attractive return metrics: 19.16% ROE and 5.83% ROA, well above sector averages
Low debt/equity ratio of 0.40, indicating conservative capital structure and strong balance sheet resilience
Trading below growth-based intrinsic value of $132.46, offering significant upside potential

Key Risks

Absence of Altman Z-Score limits ability to assess bankruptcy risk with full confidence
Weak technical trend score of 10/100 suggests near-term bearish momentum despite strong fundamentals
Operating margin of 2.77% remains thin, exposing profitability to commodity price volatility
Dividend strength is weak at 25/100 with low yield (0.63%) and limited history, reducing income appeal
Missing key financial data (EV, cash, debt, shares outstanding) raises transparency concerns
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$110.0
+76.8% above current price

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