AA Alcoa Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
BULLISH
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AA Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Basic Materials
Aluminum
Current Price
Live
$62.21
Analyst Target
$56.33
-9.4%
Downside
52W High
$66.95
52W Low
$21.53
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$16.11B
P/E
13.86
ROE
19.2%
Profit margin
8.9%
Debt/Equity
0.4
Dividend yield
0.63%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
Alcoa Corporation exhibits strong financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating robust operational and balance sheet strength. Despite the absence of an Altman Z-Score, the company shows solid profitability metrics, including a 19.16% ROE and improving earnings growth, while trading below its growth-based intrinsic value of $132.46. The stock is currently priced at $62.21, above the conservative Graham Number of $49.75, suggesting valuation is supported by strong fundamentals and cyclical tailwinds in aluminum. Analysts concur with a 'buy' recommendation, and recent price momentum is strongly positive, although technical trend sentiment remains weak.
Key Strengths
Exceptionally high Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, signaling strong financial health and operational efficiency
Impressive year-over-year earnings growth of 131.6% and Q/Q EPS surge of +6400%, reflecting strong recovery and leverage to aluminum pricing
Attractive return metrics: 19.16% ROE and 5.83% ROA, well above sector averages
Low debt/equity ratio of 0.40, indicating conservative capital structure and strong balance sheet resilience
Trading below growth-based intrinsic value of $132.46, offering significant upside potential
Key Risks
Absence of Altman Z-Score limits ability to assess bankruptcy risk with full confidence
Weak technical trend score of 10/100 suggests near-term bearish momentum despite strong fundamentals
Operating margin of 2.77% remains thin, exposing profitability to commodity price volatility
Dividend strength is weak at 25/100 with low yield (0.63%) and limited history, reducing income appeal
Missing key financial data (EV, cash, debt, shares outstanding) raises transparency concerns
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$110.0
+76.8% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
73
Strong
75
88
70
90
40
AI Verdict
Bullish with high confidence due to strong financial health and growth rebound
Key drivers: High Piotroski F-Score, Strong earnings growth acceleration, Valuation discount to intrinsic value, Superior ROE and conservative leverage
Confidence
85%
Value
75/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Current price ($62.21) below intrinsic value ($132.46)
- P/E of 13.86 below sector average (27.10)
- Price/Book of 2.54 justified by strong ROE
Watchpoints
- Price above Graham Number ($49.75), indicating premium to defensive value
- PEG unavailable limits growth-adjusted valuation analysis
Future
88/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Earnings growth (YoY) of 131.6% and Q/Q of 157.8%
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth at +6400%
- Forward P/E of 11.76 suggests earnings expansion priced in
Watchpoints
No urgent risks highlighted.
Past
70/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5Y price return of +236.8% shows strong long-term appreciation
- History of earnings beat frequency (3 of last 4 quarters)
Watchpoints
- Earnings volatility evident in past negative quarters and large surprises
- Mixed quarterly progression with several significant misses
Health
90/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicates strong financial health
- Debt/Equity of 0.40 reflects low leverage
- Current Ratio of 1.56 shows adequate liquidity
Watchpoints
- Quick Ratio of 0.79 indicates potential near-term liquidity pressure
- Altman Z-Score not available, limiting distress risk assessment
Dividend
40/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Low payout ratio of 8.79% provides sustainability and room for growth
Watchpoints
- Dividend yield of 0.63% is very low
- Dividend strength score of 25/100 indicates weak income profile
- No 5-year average yield or ex-dividend date available
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$62.21
Analyst Target
$56.33
Upside/Downside
-9.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AA and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AA
Alcoa Corporation
Primary
|
+236.8% | +22.0% | +68.7% | +103.0% | +16.0% | +3.6% |
|
DD
DuPont de Nemours, Inc.
Peer
|
+33.5% | +46.4% | +36.5% | +37.0% | +5.6% | -2.2% |
|
AGI
Alamos Gold Inc.
Peer
|
+472.0% | +288.1% | +116.2% | +67.8% | +7.6% | +11.6% |
|
DOW
Dow Inc.
Peer
|
-37.1% | -42.6% | -27.5% | +0.1% | +19.5% | +4.7% |
|
AG
First Majestic Silver Corp.
Peer
|
+84.7% | +218.8% | +354.4% | +196.8% | +47.8% | +18.3% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
13.86
Forward P/E
11.76
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.54
P/S Ratio
1.25
EV/Revenue
1.36
EV/EBITDA
8.58
Market Cap
$16.11B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
8.91%
Operating Margin
2.77%
Gross Margin
18.89%
ROE
19.16%
ROA
5.83%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+3.1%
Earnings Growth
+131.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+157.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.4
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.56
Good
Quick Ratio
0.79
Poor
Cash/Share
$5.73
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-04-15
$N/A
2026-01-22
$1.26
+24.7% surprise
2025-10-22
$-0.02
+63.0% surprise
2025-07-16
$0.39
+1.1% surprise
Basic Materials Sector Comparison
Comparing AA against 41 companies in the Basic Materials sector
(1 bullish, 20 neutral, 20 bearish)
P/E Ratio
13.86
This Stock
vs
30.44
Sector Avg
-54.5%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
19.16%
This Stock
vs
-0.24%
Sector Avg
-8065.9%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
8.91%
This Stock
vs
-2.71%
Sector Avg
-429.0%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.4
This Stock
vs
0.61
Sector Avg
-34.4%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
3.1%
This Stock
vs
14.52%
Sector Avg
-78.7%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.56
This Stock
vs
2.29
Sector Avg
-31.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AA
Alcoa Corporation
|
BULLISH | $16.11B | 13.86 | 19.2% | 8.9% | $62.21 | |
|
DD
DuPont de Nemours, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $17.96B | 24.77 | 3.2% | -6.0% | $42.86 | |
|
AGI
Alamos Gold Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $18.23B | 32.89 | 14.3% | 33.5% | $43.42 | |
|
DOW
Dow Inc.
|
BEARISH | $19.6B | - | -5.3% | -2.8% | $27.57 | |
|
AG
First Majestic Silver Corp.
|
BEARISH | $12.47B | 169.6 | 4.2% | 7.1% | $25.44 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
12 analysts
Wells Fargo
2026-01-23
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Wells Fargo
2026-01-13
Overweight
Equal-Weight
JP Morgan
2026-01-08
Neutral
Underweight
Wells Fargo
2025-12-23
Overweight
Overweight
Citigroup
2025-12-19
Buy
Buy
UBS
2025-12-12
Neutral
Neutral
JP Morgan
2025-12-05
Neutral
Neutral
JP Morgan
2025-10-23
Neutral
Neutral
BMO Capital
2025-10-23
Market Perform
Market Perform
HSBC
2025-10-17
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AA from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.