AAL American Airlines Group Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
AAL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Industrials
•
Airlines
Current Price
$15.48
Analyst Target
$15.87
+2.5% Upside
52W High
$19.1
52W Low
$8.5
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
American Airlines (AAL) exhibits strong deterministic financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an exceptionally high Altman Z-Score of 81778666598.4, indicating negligible bankruptcy risk. Despite this, the company trades at a premium to its intrinsic value of $6.09 with a current price of $15.48, and shows weak profitability metrics including a negative Price/Book ratio and low margins. While recent earnings surprises have been positive and analyst sentiment is 'buy', insider selling and deteriorating short-term EPS growth (-118.7% QoQ) raise caution. The stock’s valuation appears supported more by cyclical recovery and sector sentiment than fundamental strength.
Key Strengths
Exceptionally high Altman Z-Score (81778666598.4) indicates near-zero bankruptcy risk and strong financial stability
Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 reflects strong accounting health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency
Recent earnings performance shows consistent positive surprises, averaging +22.2% over the last four quarters
Valuation metrics like P/S of 0.19 are significantly below sector averages, suggesting potential relative value
Forward P/E of 8.35 is well below both historical P/E and sector average, implying earnings recovery expectations
Key Risks
Current price ($15.48) is 154% above the Graham-based intrinsic value of $6.09, indicating substantial overvaluation
Negative Price/Book ratio (-2.58) suggests shareholders' equity is deeply negative, a serious balance sheet concern
Very weak liquidity with Current Ratio of 0.54 and Quick Ratio of 0.38, indicating potential near-term solvency pressure
Insider activity is bearish with $1.35M in recent sales and no buys, signaling lack of confidence from executives
Most recent Q/Q EPS growth is -118.7%, showing sharp deterioration in earnings momentum despite YoY improvement
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$9.5
-38.6% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare AAL against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
Track insider transactions and Wall Street analyst recommendations