ABEV Ambev S.A. - Fundamental Analysis
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ABEV Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Consumer Defensive
Beverages - Brewers
Current Price
Live
$2.78
Analyst Target
$2.93
+5.3%
Upside
52W High
$2.81
52W Low
$1.8
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$43.65B
P/E
13.9
ROE
17.2%
Profit margin
17.7%
Debt/Equity
0.03
Dividend yield
11.34%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
ABEV's deterministic health score is weak with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating marginal financial stability. The stock trades above the Graham Number of $2.24 at a current price of $2.78, suggesting modest overvaluation for a defensive stock, though below the growth-based intrinsic value of $5.9. Strong profitability metrics like a 17.73% profit margin and 26.01% operating margin are offset by declining revenue growth of -5.70% YoY and a concerning 104.3% dividend payout ratio. Analysts rate it a 'hold' with a $2.93 target, implying limited upside.
Key Strengths
High dividend yield of 11.34% offers strong income appeal
Exceptional profitability with gross margin of 51.77% and ROE of 17.21%
Very low debt/equity ratio of 0.03 indicates minimal leverage risk
Recent earnings growth is robust, with YoY EPS growth at 38.40%
Trading below analyst target price of $2.93, implying 5.4% upside
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4 suggests weak financial health and inconsistent performance
Revenue declining YoY by -5.70%, indicating top-line pressure
Dividend payout ratio of 104.3% is unsustainable long-term
Poor technical trend score of 10/100 signals bearish momentum
Earnings surprise trend deteriorating, with 3 of last 4 quarters missing or barely meeting estimates
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$2.5
-10.1% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
54
Moderate
62
54
56
48
50
AI Verdict
Neutral with caution due to mixed profitability and growth signals
Key drivers: High dividend yield, Strong margins but declining revenue, Low financial leverage, Unsustainable payout ratio, Weak technical and insider signals
Confidence
65%
Value
62/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 13.90 is below sector average of 34.42
- Price/Sales of 0.48 indicates low revenue multiple
Watchpoints
- Current price of $2.78 exceeds Graham Number of $2.24
- No PEG ratio due to inconsistent growth
Future
54/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Earnings growth of 38.40% YoY is strong
- Q/Q earnings growth of 37.10% shows recent acceleration
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth is negative at -5.70% YoY
- No forward PEG to assess growth-adjusted valuation
Past
56/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- History of strong earnings surprises in prior years (e.g., +73% in 2021)
- 1Y price return of +57.3% outperforms peers
Watchpoints
- Recent earnings misses: only 1 of last 4 quarters beat estimates
- Average surprise over last 4 quarters is negative (-0.81%)
Health
48/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 0.03 is extremely low, reducing solvency risk
- ROE of 17.21% indicates efficient equity use
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Quick ratio of 0.79 suggests potential liquidity strain
Dividend
50/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 11.34% is highly attractive
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 104.3% exceeds earnings, raising sustainability concerns
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$2.78
Analyst Target
$2.93
Upside/Downside
+5.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ABEV and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ABEV
Ambev S.A.
Primary
|
+22.3% | +20.9% | +57.3% | +17.5% | +17.3% | +7.3% |
|
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Peer
|
-2.4% | -16.6% | -9.6% | -16.9% | -1.5% | -1.4% |
|
TGT
Target Corporation
Peer
|
-32.0% | -23.8% | -12.8% | +10.1% | +12.9% | +5.5% |
|
HSY
The Hershey Company
Peer
|
+29.8% | -10.8% | +3.5% | +13.9% | -6.5% | +5.0% |
|
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
Peer
|
-12.5% | -9.4% | -18.0% | -23.8% | -13.3% | +0.2% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
13.9
Forward P/E
14.55
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.49
P/S Ratio
0.48
EV/Revenue
0.3
EV/EBITDA
1.01
Market Cap
$43.65B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
17.73%
Operating Margin
26.01%
Gross Margin
51.77%
ROE
17.21%
ROA
9.98%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-5.7%
Earnings Growth
+38.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+37.1%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.03
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.15
Good
Quick Ratio
0.79
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.27
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-12
$N/A
2025-10-30
$0.04
+9.6% surprise
2025-07-31
$0.03
-11.7% surprise
2025-05-08
$0.04
-0.3% surprise
Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison
Comparing ABEV against 48 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector
(3 bullish, 26 neutral, 19 bearish)
P/E Ratio
13.9
This Stock
vs
30.02
Sector Avg
-53.7%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
17.21%
This Stock
vs
4.7%
Sector Avg
+266.2%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
17.73%
This Stock
vs
-1.11%
Sector Avg
-1690.5%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.03
This Stock
vs
1.71
Sector Avg
-98.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-5.7%
This Stock
vs
9.45%
Sector Avg
-160.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.15
This Stock
vs
1.97
Sector Avg
-41.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ABEV
Ambev S.A.
|
NEUTRAL | $43.65B | 13.9 | 17.2% | 17.7% | $2.78 | |
|
KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
|
BEARISH | $37.24B | 23.63 | 6.3% | 9.8% | $27.41 | |
|
TGT
Target Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $50.57B | 13.49 | 25.1% | 3.6% | $111.28 | |
|
HSY
The Hershey Company
|
NEUTRAL | $36.12B | 26.83 | 31.0% | 11.8% | $179.2 | |
|
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $34.66B | 17.6 | 136.9% | 10.0% | $104.02 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
10 analysts
Bernstein
2025-11-26
Outperform
Market Perform
UBS
2025-08-20
Neutral
Neutral
HSBC
2025-08-01
Buy
Hold
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ABEV from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.