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ABM

BEARISH
$38.77 Live
ABM Industries Incorporated · NYSE
Target $51.43 (+32.7%)
$38.27 52W Range $52.94

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AI Analysis

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Confidence
85%
ABM's Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates a stable but not strong financial health, with no Altman Z-Score available to assess bankruptcy risk. The stock trades at $38.77, significantly above its Graham Number of $41.41 and well below its intrinsic value estimate of $18.13, suggesting overvaluation relative to conservative metrics. Despite a 6.1% YoY revenue growth, earnings have declined by 7.2% YoY, and recent quarters have consistently missed estimates with an average surprise of -12.45%. Insider selling totaling $1.81M in the last six months further undermines confidence, while technical trends remain bearish.

Key Strengths

Piotroski F-Score of 5 indicates stable financials despite not being strong
Positive 6.1% YoY revenue growth in a challenging environment
Dividend yield of 2.99% with a sustainable 40.93% payout ratio
Relatively low debt/equity ratio of 1.01 compared to sector average of 5.46
Strong historical earnings growth (20.3% YoY EPS growth) and past outperformance

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 5 is below the 7-9 threshold for strong financial health
Consistent earnings misses in the last four quarters with an average -12.45% surprise
Insider selling activity (2 transactions, $1.81M) signals potential lack of confidence
Technical trend is bearish (0/100), with 1-year return down 15.7% and 6-month down 14.3%
Current price ($38.77) is above Graham Number ($41.41) and intrinsic value ($18.13), indicating overvaluation
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$18.13
-53.2% below current price

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