ABR Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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ABR Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Real Estate
REIT - Mortgage
Current Price
Live
$7.74
Analyst Target
$8.88
+14.7%
Upside
52W High
$14.33
52W Low
$7.58
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$1.64B
P/E
10.05
ROE
6.6%
Profit margin
35.1%
Debt/Equity
3.36
Dividend yield
15.08%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
ABR exhibits weak financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating borderline stability, and lacks an Altman Z-Score for definitive distress assessment. Despite a deep value appearance via a Price/Book of 0.64 and a Graham Number of $14.47—nearly double the current price of $7.74—the stock faces severe headwinds from declining revenue and earnings, high leverage, and an unsustainable dividend. Profitability margins are strong, but negative growth trends, a 184.81% payout ratio, and deteriorating fundamentals outweigh valuation appeal. Technical trend at 0/100 confirms strong bearish momentum.
Key Strengths
High gross and operating margins indicating pricing power or cost control
Price/Book ratio of 0.64 suggests potential undervaluation relative to book value
Graham Number ($14.47) implies significant upside if fundamentals stabilize
Recent quarterly EPS surprise of +48.9% shows potential for short-term beats
Current and quick ratios above 4.5 indicate strong short-term liquidity
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals weak financial health and operational instability
Debt/Equity ratio of 3.36 is high, increasing financial risk, especially in rising rate environments
Revenue and earnings declining YoY by 30% and 35.7%, respectively, indicating fundamental deterioration
Dividend payout ratio of 184.81% is unsustainable and poses cut risk
Technical trend score of 0/100 reflects strong downward price momentum
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$10.5
+35.7% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
38
Weak
65
25
50
30
20
AI Verdict
Overvalued relative to deteriorating fundamentals and high risk
Key drivers: Low Piotroski score, High debt burden, Negative growth, Unsustainable dividend, Bearish technicals
Confidence
80%
Value
65/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Price/Book of 0.64 is below 1, suggesting asset coverage
- Graham Number ($14.47) implies 87% upside
Watchpoints
- P/E of 10.05 is not low given negative earnings growth
- Intrinsic value ($5.39) is below current price
Future
25/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth of +40.0% offers a glimmer of rebound
Watchpoints
- Revenue Growth (YoY): -30.00%
- Earnings Growth (YoY): -35.70%
- Q/Q Earnings Growth: -28.80%
Past
50/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- History of beating earnings estimates, especially in 2020–2023
- Average surprise of 12.15% over last 4 quarters
Watchpoints
- Recent trend shows declining actual EPS from $0.62 to $0.25
- Only 1 of last 4 quarters beat estimates
Health
30/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current Ratio: 4.81 and Quick Ratio: 4.63 indicate strong liquidity
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score: 4/9 (Weak)
- Debt/Equity: 3.36 is elevated
- No Altman Z-Score available for distress modeling
Dividend
20/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- High dividend yield of 15.08% attractive in absolute terms
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 184.81% is unsustainable
- Dividend Strength score of 40/100 indicates high risk
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$7.74
Analyst Target
$8.88
Upside/Downside
+14.7%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ABR and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ABR
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Primary
|
-7.8% | -22.3% | -34.2% | -32.0% | -2.4% | -6.4% |
|
ALEX
Alexander & Baldwin, Inc.
Peer
|
+58.2% | +26.3% | +25.3% | +16.0% | +0.5% | -0.5% |
|
AAT
American Assets Trust, Inc.
Peer
|
-18.7% | -20.1% | -20.4% | -8.6% | -4.6% | 0.0% |
|
ARI
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Peer
|
+49.1% | +20.2% | +23.8% | +5.8% | +2.0% | -2.3% |
|
ALX
Alexander's, Inc.
Peer
|
+28.6% | +33.4% | +37.1% | -2.2% | +11.4% | +0.9% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
10.05
Forward P/E
9.24
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.64
P/S Ratio
2.97
EV/Revenue
22.25
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$1.64B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
35.1%
Operating Margin
13.54%
Gross Margin
85.55%
ROE
6.59%
ROA
1.49%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-30.0%
Earnings Growth
-35.7%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-28.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
3.36
High debt
Current Ratio
4.81
Strong
Quick Ratio
4.63
Excellent
Cash/Share
$2.17
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-20
$N/A
2025-10-31
$0.35
+48.9% surprise
2025-08-01
$0.25
-7.4% surprise
2025-05-02
$0.28
-5.1% surprise
Real Estate Sector Comparison
Comparing ABR against 56 companies in the Real Estate sector
(1 bullish, 9 neutral, 46 bearish)
P/E Ratio
10.05
This Stock
vs
49.55
Sector Avg
-79.7%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
6.59%
This Stock
vs
-75.18%
Sector Avg
-108.8%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
35.1%
This Stock
vs
26.43%
Sector Avg
+32.8%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
3.36
This Stock
vs
3.27
Sector Avg
+2.5%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
-30.0%
This Stock
vs
1431.44%
Sector Avg
-102.1%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
4.81
This Stock
vs
3449.18
Sector Avg
-99.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ABR
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.64B | 10.05 | 6.6% | 35.1% | $7.74 | |
|
ALEX
Alexander & Baldwin, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.51B | 20.54 | 7.3% | 32.4% | $20.75 | |
|
AAT
American Assets Trust, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.39B | 17.8 | 7.0% | 14.1% | $17.98 | |
|
ARI
Apollo Commercial Real...
|
BEARISH | $1.38B | 11.4 | 7.4% | 51.3% | $9.92 | |
|
ALX
Alexander's, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.24B | 34.38 | 23.0% | 17.0% | $243.04 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | GREEN WILLIAM C | Director | Purchase | 12,800 | $115,456 |
| 2025-11-17 | FRIEDMAN DAVID ERWIN | Officer | Purchase | 2,508 | $20,816 |
| 2025-11-17 | LAZAR MELVIN F | Director | Purchase | 5,000 | $41,400 |
| 2025-11-17 | KAUFMAN IVAN | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 54,000 | $469,360 |
| 2025-09-15 | WACHTER KEVIN | Officer and Treasurer | Stock Award | 46,517 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
4 analysts
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-01-08
Underperform
Underperform
Piper Sandler
2025-12-22
Underweight
Underweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-12-15
Market Perform
Underperform
JP Morgan
2025-12-04
Underweight
Underweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-11-03
Market Perform
Market Perform
JP Morgan
2025-11-03
Underweight
Underweight
JP Morgan
2025-10-20
Underweight
Underweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-10-09
Market Perform
Market Perform
Piper Sandler
2025-10-08
Underweight
Underweight
JMP Securities
2025-08-19
Market Outperform
Market Outperform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ABR from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.