AER AerCap Holdings N.V. - Fundamental Analysis
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AER Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Industrials
Rental & Leasing Services
Current Price
Live
$144.9
Analyst Target
$152.33
+5.1%
Upside
52W High
$149.24
52W Low
$85.57
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$25.84B
P/E
6.87
ROE
21.7%
Profit margin
45.4%
Debt/Equity
2.43
Dividend yield
0.75%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
AER's Advanced Deterministic Scorecard shows a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating stable but not strong financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full distress risk assessment. The stock trades at a significant discount to its growth-based intrinsic value of $621.86, yet well above the conservative Graham Number of $227.61, suggesting high growth expectations are priced in. Exceptional profitability metrics—such as a 61.58% operating margin and 21.71% ROE—contrast with a high debt/equity ratio of 2.43 and weak technical trend. Strong earnings growth and consistent analyst estimate beats support upside potential, but leverage and deteriorating technicals cap bullishness.
Key Strengths
Exceptionally high profitability with operating margin of 61.58% and ROE of 21.71%, well above sector average of 7.90%
Strong earnings growth momentum: YoY EPS growth of 106.2% and Q/Q EPS growth of 75.6%
Consistently beats earnings estimates—3 out of last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 32.82% over the past four
Low payout ratio of 5.06% provides substantial dividend sustainability and room for future increases
Attractive valuation multiples relative to sector: P/E of 6.87 vs. sector average of 52.49
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates only stable financial health, limiting confidence in operational strength
High debt/equity ratio of 2.43, significantly above sector average of 1.56, increasing financial risk
Missing Altman Z-Score prevents assessment of bankruptcy risk; high leverage raises caution
Technical trend score of 10/100 signals strong bearish momentum near term
Insider sentiment is weak at 40/100, suggesting lack of conviction among company insiders
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$320.0
+120.8% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
69
Strong
80
85
70
50
60
AI Verdict
Moderately positive with caution due to leverage and technical weakness
Key drivers: Low P/E relative to sector, High ROE and operating margin, Strong earnings growth and beat rate, Elevated debt levels, Bearish technical trend
Confidence
75%
Value
80/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 6.87 is deeply discounted vs. sector average of 52.49
- Price/Book of 1.33 is reasonable for a high-ROE business
- Current price ($144.90) is far below growth-based intrinsic value ($621.86)
Watchpoints
- Stock trades above Graham Number ($227.61), implying speculative premium
- EV/EBITDA and other key EV multiples unavailable, limiting full valuation view
Future
85/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 18.50% YoY exceeds sector average of 17.08%
- Earnings growth of 257.90% YoY is exceptional
- Q/Q earnings growth of 224.20% shows sustained acceleration
Watchpoints
- PEG Ratio unavailable, limiting growth-adjusted valuation
Past
70/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Long history of earnings beat streak: 3 out of last 4 quarters
- Average earnings surprise of 32.82% over last 4 quarters
- 5-year price return of +256.7% shows strong long-term appreciation
Watchpoints
- One significant earnings miss in Q1 2022 (-35.6%)
- Mixed performance prior to 2021 with volatility in estimate accuracy
Health
50/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.27 indicates short-term liquidity adequacy
- ROA of 4.01% shows modest asset efficiency
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests only stable financial condition
- Debt/Equity of 2.43 is high and above sector average
- Quick ratio of 0.95 is below 1, indicating potential near-term liquidity pressure
- Altman Z-Score not available, creating analytical gap in distress risk
Dividend
60/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Payout ratio of 5.06% is very low, indicating high sustainability
- Dividend strength score of 25/100 is low, but not due to risk of cut
Watchpoints
- Dividend yield of 0.75% is minimal for income investors
- Limited dividend history data (5-year avg yield unavailable)
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$144.9
Analyst Target
$152.33
Upside/Downside
+5.1%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AER and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AER
AerCap Holdings N.V.
Primary
|
+256.7% | +131.1% | +53.2% | +29.5% | -0.2% | +1.5% |
|
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
Peer
|
+31.3% | -15.5% | -40.4% | -22.5% | -2.0% | -5.4% |
|
LUV
Southwest Airlines Co.
Peer
|
-1.2% | +24.5% | +37.0% | +19.3% | +5.7% | -3.1% |
|
VRSK
Verisk Analytics, Inc.
Peer
|
+18.9% | +23.7% | -20.3% | -26.7% | +0.6% | -2.0% |
|
APG
APi Group Corporation
Peer
|
+236.6% | +201.7% | +64.5% | +19.0% | +6.2% | -2.3% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
6.87
Forward P/E
9.79
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.33
P/S Ratio
3.1
EV/Revenue
7.96
EV/EBITDA
14.1
Market Cap
$25.84B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
45.41%
Operating Margin
61.58%
Gross Margin
62.45%
ROE
21.71%
ROA
4.01%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+18.5%
Earnings Growth
+257.9%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+224.2%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.43
High debt
Current Ratio
1.27
Good
Quick Ratio
0.95
Poor
Cash/Share
$11.04
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-06
$N/A
2025-10-29
$4.97
+61.3% surprise
2025-07-30
$2.83
+5.6% surprise
2025-04-30
$3.68
+31.6% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing AER against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(5 bullish, 61 neutral, 56 bearish)
P/E Ratio
6.87
This Stock
vs
74.17
Sector Avg
-90.7%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
21.71%
This Stock
vs
7.57%
Sector Avg
+186.7%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
45.41%
This Stock
vs
58.43%
Sector Avg
-22.3%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.43
This Stock
vs
5.2
Sector Avg
-53.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
18.5%
This Stock
vs
24.48%
Sector Avg
-24.4%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.27
This Stock
vs
2.66
Sector Avg
-52.4%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AER
AerCap Holdings N.V.
|
NEUTRAL | $25.84B | 6.87 | 21.7% | 45.4% | $144.9 | |
|
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $28.32B | 26.62 | 25.1% | 19.0% | $132.29 | |
|
LUV
Southwest Airlines Co.
|
BEARISH | $22.65B | 68.44 | 4.2% | 1.4% | $43.12 | |
|
VRSK
Verisk Analytics, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $30.79B | 33.86 | 268.1% | 30.4% | $220.41 | |
|
APG
APi Group Corporation
|
BEARISH | $18.03B | 116.19 | 8.7% | 3.6% | $41.83 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
9 analysts
Barclays
2026-01-06
Overweight
Overweight
Truist Securities
2025-12-09
Buy
Susquehanna
2025-11-11
Positive
Positive
Morgan Stanley
2025-11-11
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
B of A Securities
2025-11-04
Buy
Buy
TD Cowen
2025-10-30
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2025-10-30
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2025-10-21
Overweight
Overweight
Susquehanna
2025-08-13
Positive
Positive
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AER from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.