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AER

NEUTRAL
$144.9 Live
AerCap Holdings N.V. · NYSE
Target $152.33 (+5.1%)
$85.57 52W Range $149.24

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AI Analysis

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Confidence
72%
AER's Advanced Deterministic Scorecard shows a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating stable but not strong financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full distress risk assessment. The stock trades at a significant discount to its growth-based intrinsic value of $621.86, yet well above the conservative Graham Number of $227.61, suggesting high growth expectations are priced in. Exceptional profitability metrics—such as a 61.58% operating margin and 21.71% ROE—contrast with a high debt/equity ratio of 2.43 and weak technical trend. Strong earnings growth and consistent analyst estimate beats support upside potential, but leverage and deteriorating technicals cap bullishness.

Key Strengths

Exceptionally high profitability with operating margin of 61.58% and ROE of 21.71%, well above sector average of 7.90%
Strong earnings growth momentum: YoY EPS growth of 106.2% and Q/Q EPS growth of 75.6%
Consistently beats earnings estimates—3 out of last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 32.82% over the past four
Low payout ratio of 5.06% provides substantial dividend sustainability and room for future increases
Attractive valuation multiples relative to sector: P/E of 6.87 vs. sector average of 52.49

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates only stable financial health, limiting confidence in operational strength
High debt/equity ratio of 2.43, significantly above sector average of 1.56, increasing financial risk
Missing Altman Z-Score prevents assessment of bankruptcy risk; high leverage raises caution
Technical trend score of 10/100 signals strong bearish momentum near term
Insider sentiment is weak at 40/100, suggesting lack of conviction among company insiders
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$320.0
+120.8% above current price

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