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AFL Aflac Incorporated - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL
AFL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Financial Services Insurance - Life
Current Price
$114.34
Analyst Target
$111.0
-2.9% Downside
52W High
$115.84
52W Low
$96.95

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 15, 2025
Market cap
$60.28B
P/E
15.01
ROE
15.6%
Profit margin
23.6%
Debt/Equity
0.5
Dividend yield
2.13%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
Aflac Incorporated trades near its 52-week high at $114.34 with a P/E of 15.01, slightly below the sector average of 22.13, reflecting relative valuation discipline. The company exhibits strong profitability, including a 43.27% operating margin and 23.55% net margin, both above peer averages, while maintaining a conservative 0.50 debt/equity ratio. However, recent insider selling worth $4.32M and a lack of earnings growth data—coupled with four consecutive earnings misses—raise execution concerns. Analysts concur with a 'hold' rating and a modest $111 target, implying limited near-term upside despite solid dividend coverage and historical price strength.

Key Strengths

Operating margin of 43.27% significantly exceeds sector average of 26.51%
Profit margin of 23.55% is above peer average of 27.23%, indicating pricing power and cost control
Conservative capital structure with debt/equity of 0.50 vs sector average of 0.76
Attractive dividend yield of 2.13% with a sustainable 29.43% payout ratio
Strong 5-year total return of +197.5%, outperforming most peers

Key Risks

Insider selling of $4.32M in last 6 months signals lack of confidence from executives
Four consecutive quarters of earnings misses with 0% average surprise, indicating weak execution
Revenue growth of 60.70% YoY is strong but lacks earnings growth confirmation due to missing data
Valuation appears full with stock trading at 98.7% of 52-week high and above analyst target
Liquidity metrics are tight: current ratio of 1.09 and quick ratio of 0.99 limit operational flexibility
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$111.0
-2.9% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
69
Strong
Value
70
Future
55
Past
68
Health
72
Dividend
80
AI Verdict
Aflac presents a mixed profile: attractively valued and profitable relative to peers like MET and PYPL, but constrained by weak earnings delivery, insider selling, and limited analyst upside, with current price already above the $111 target.
Key drivers: High profitability margins relative to sector, Disciplined capital structure and dividend sustainability, Erosion in earnings credibility and insider sentiment
Confidence
65%
Value
70/100

Aflac is cheaper than the Financial Services sector average on both P/E and P/B, but not undervalued given its growth and earnings track record, especially when compared to higher-growth peers like PYPL despite lower margins.

Positives
  • P/E of 15.01 is below sector average of 22.13, suggesting relative value
  • Price/Book of 2.10 is reasonable for a life insurer with stable ROE
Watchpoints
  • Current price of $114.34 exceeds analyst target of $111.00
  • Forward P/E of 15.95 implies no compression benefit
Future
55/100

While revenue growth is robust, the absence of earnings growth confirmation and flat price momentum near the 52-week high suggest limited near-term catalysts, especially with 1-month and 1-week returns showing deceleration.

Positives
  • 60.70% YoY revenue growth indicates strong top-line momentum
  • Dividend policy provides income stability in uncertain markets
Watchpoints
  • No earnings growth data available to confirm profit conversion
  • Analyst target implies only -2.9% downside, limiting upside potential
Past
68/100

Aflac has delivered strong historical profitability and exceptional 5-year price performance, but the complete lack of earnings beats over 25 quarters raises concerns about forecast reliability and execution consistency.

Positives
  • Consistent profitability with ROE of 15.58% and stable margins over time
  • Five-year return of +197.5% demonstrates strong long-term compounding
Watchpoints
  • Four straight earnings misses erode credibility of guidance
  • No positive earnings surprises in last 25 quarters
Health
72/100

Aflac’s low leverage enhances financial resilience relative to peers like MET (1.64 D/E), but marginal liquidity ratios suggest limited buffer for adverse shocks, especially in a rising rate environment.

Positives
  • Debt/equity of 0.50 is below sector average of 0.76, reducing leverage risk
  • Operating margins support strong cash generation potential
Watchpoints
  • Current ratio of 1.09 and quick ratio of 0.99 indicate tight liquidity
  • Missing total cash and debt figures limit full solvency assessment
Dividend
80/100

The dividend appears well-covered and attractive in the current yield environment, with a low payout ratio supporting longevity, though lack of historical data limits full policy assessment.

Positives
  • Dividend yield of 2.13% is above S&P 500 average and sector median
  • Payout ratio of 29.43% indicates strong earnings coverage and room for growth
Watchpoints
  • No data on dividend growth history or consistency of increases
  • Insider selling may signal caution around future payout sustainability

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$114.34
Analyst Target
$111.0
Upside/Downside
-2.9%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AFL and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
AFL
Aflac Incorporated
Primary
+197.5% +73.0% +6.5% +8.2% +4.1% +0.2%
PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Peer
-67.3% -30.1% -26.8% -13.0% -7.6% -5.2%
TFC
Truist Financial Corporation
Peer
+16.8% +14.0% +1.8% +11.0% +4.9% +1.4%
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.
Peer
+133.6% +69.6% +13.8% +5.8% +6.6% +2.7%
ALL
The Allstate Corporation
Peer
+147.3% +74.4% +11.6% +3.5% +6.9% +5.9%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
15.01
Forward P/E
15.95
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.1
P/S Ratio
3.41
EV/Revenue
3.68
EV/EBITDA
12.16
Market Cap
$60.28B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 23.55%
Operating Margin 43.27%
Gross Margin 48.17%
ROE 15.58%
ROA 2.65%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +60.7%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.5
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.09
Good
Quick Ratio
0.99
Poor
Cash/Share
$17.42

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-02-04
$N/A
2025-11-04
$3.08
+73.4% surprise
2025-08-05
$1.11
-34.4% surprise
2025-04-30
$0.05
-97.0% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing AFL against 32 companies in the Financial Services sector (19 bullish, 12 neutral, 1 bearish)
P/E Ratio
15.01
This Stock
vs
22.34
Sector Avg
-32.8% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
15.58%
This Stock
vs
26.06%
Sector Avg
-40.2% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
23.55%
This Stock
vs
25.09%
Sector Avg
-6.1% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.5
This Stock
vs
0.75
Sector Avg
-33.6% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
60.7%
This Stock
vs
20.1%
Sector Avg
+202.0% (Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
1.09
This Stock
vs
1.41
Sector Avg
-22.8% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
AFL
Aflac Incorporated
NEUTRAL $60.28B 15.01 15.6% 23.6% $114.34
PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
BULLISH $58.77B 12.61 24.4% 15.0% $62.81
TFC
Truist Financial Corporation
BULLISH $57.99B 12.03 8.0% 28.6% $44.86
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.
NEUTRAL $64.11B 11.31 19.8% 12.1% $287.29
ALL
The Allstate Corporation
BULLISH $56.08B 6.95 34.5% 12.5% $214.3

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-11-10 BRODEN MAX Chief Financial Officer Option Exercise 4,668 $180,908
2025-11-07 MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L Director Sale 1,000 $114,000
2025-11-07 TILLMAN AUDREY BOONE Officer Gift 26,970 -
2025-11-06 SIMARD FREDERIC JEAN GUY Officer Sale 1,722 $193,725
2025-08-18 MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L Director Gift 500 -
2025-08-12 DYSLIN BRADLEY EUGENE Officer Stock Award 9,658 -
2025-08-08 MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L Director Sale 1,000 $102,570
2025-05-20 KOIDE MASATOSHI Officer Sale 37,000 $3,906,941
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
HOLD
13 analysts
Wells Fargo
2025-11-07
main
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Evercore ISI Group
2025-11-07
main
Underperform Underperform
JP Morgan
2025-11-05
main
Neutral Neutral
Barclays
2025-11-05
main
Underweight Underweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-10-09
main
Market Perform Market Perform
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-09
main
Underperform Underperform
Barclays
2025-10-08
main
Underweight Underweight
Morgan Stanley
2025-08-18
main
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Evercore ISI Group
2025-08-15
main
Underperform Underperform
Wells Fargo
2025-08-11
main
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight