AFL Aflac Incorporated - Fundamental Analysis
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AFL Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Financial Services
Insurance - Life
Current Price
Live
$107.09
Analyst Target
$110.85
+3.5%
Upside
52W High
$115.84
52W Low
$96.95
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$57.28B
P/E
14.22
ROE
15.6%
Profit margin
23.6%
Debt/Equity
0.5
Dividend yield
2.25%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
AFL's Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, indicating significant operational or balance sheet concerns. Despite this, profitability metrics are strong, with high margins and solid ROE, while valuation appears reasonable relative to sector peers. The stock trades above the Graham Number of $96.15 but near the analyst target of $110.85, supported by robust revenue growth and a sustainable dividend. However, bearish insider activity and technical trend signals temper optimism, warranting caution despite attractive yield and earnings momentum.
Key Strengths
High profitability with operating margin of 43.27% and ROE of 15.58%, well above sector average
Strong revenue growth of 60.70% YoY, significantly outpacing peer average of 43.64%
Attractive dividend yield of 2.25% with low payout ratio of 29.43%, indicating sustainability
Valuation is favorable versus sector, with P/E of 14.22 vs. sector average of 22.11
Debt/Equity of 0.50 is below sector average of 1.70, reflecting conservative leverage
Key Risks
Weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signals potential financial instability or deteriorating fundamentals
No Altman Z-Score available, creating uncertainty around bankruptcy risk assessment
Bearish insider sentiment with $3.65M in net officer/director selling over last 6 months
Technical trend score of 0/100 indicates strong short-term bearish momentum
Current and quick ratios near 1.0 suggest tight liquidity position
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$96.15
-10.2% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
64
Strong
70
75
60
35
78
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside risks due to valuation and growth, offset by weak financial health and insider selling
Key drivers: High profitability and revenue growth, Low Piotroski F-Score, Bearish insider activity, Attractive dividend profile, Valuation discount to sector
Confidence
75%
Value
70/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 14.22 below sector average of 22.11
- Price/Book of 1.96 is reasonable for life insurance firm
- Graham Number suggests $96.15 fair value, implying modest downside
Watchpoints
- Current price of $107.09 trades above Graham Number by 11.4%
- No PEG ratio due to inconsistent earnings growth data
Future
75/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 60.70% YoY revenue growth is exceptional
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth of +39.9% and YoY EPS growth of +15.3% show strong earnings momentum
- Analyst target price of $110.85 implies 3.5% upside
Watchpoints
- Forward P/E of 14.63 suggests limited multiple expansion
- No Q/Q earnings growth data available for trend confirmation
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 21 out of 25 quarters beat EPS estimates, showing consistent earnings outperformance
- Average surprise of 14.56% over last 4 quarters indicates strong forecasting accuracy
Watchpoints
- Recent quarters show declining trend in beats: only 2 of last 4 quarters beat estimates
- Missed estimates in early 2025 and 2024 suggest possible weakening momentum
Health
35/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 0.50 is conservative
- ROE of 15.58% indicates efficient use of equity
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates weak financial health
- No Altman Z-Score available for distress risk analysis
- Current ratio of 1.09 and quick ratio of 0.99 suggest tight liquidity
Dividend
78/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.25% is attractive in current rate environment
- Payout ratio of 29.43% is low, indicating high sustainability
- Dividend Strength score of 35/100 appears conservative given payout safety
Watchpoints
- No 5-year average yield provided, limiting trend analysis
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$107.09
Analyst Target
$110.85
Upside/Downside
+3.5%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AFL and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AFL
Aflac Incorporated
Primary
|
+158.3% | +57.2% | +4.8% | +4.7% | -3.2% | -2.2% |
|
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.
Peer
|
+127.9% | +66.3% | +30.4% | +13.7% | +7.8% | +2.8% |
|
PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
-76.9% | -28.9% | -35.9% | -23.1% | -5.5% | -1.3% |
|
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.
Peer
|
+107.6% | +54.2% | +13.0% | +2.1% | -7.5% | -4.5% |
|
BSBR
Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A.
Peer
|
+32.0% | +44.7% | +66.4% | +42.2% | +10.6% | +10.4% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
14.22
Forward P/E
14.63
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.96
P/S Ratio
3.24
EV/Revenue
3.46
EV/EBITDA
11.45
Market Cap
$57.28B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
23.55%
Operating Margin
43.27%
Gross Margin
48.17%
ROE
15.58%
ROA
2.65%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+60.7%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.5
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.09
Good
Quick Ratio
0.99
Poor
Cash/Share
$17.42
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-04
$N/A
2025-11-04
$2.49
+40.2% surprise
2025-08-05
$1.78
+4.3% surprise
2025-04-30
$1.66
-0.8% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing AFL against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(6 bullish, 111 neutral, 91 bearish)
P/E Ratio
14.22
This Stock
vs
30.39
Sector Avg
-53.2%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
15.58%
This Stock
vs
-7.57%
Sector Avg
-305.7%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
23.55%
This Stock
vs
83.86%
Sector Avg
-71.9%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.5
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
-66.9%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
60.7%
This Stock
vs
30.29%
Sector Avg
+100.4%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
1.09
This Stock
vs
3.78
Sector Avg
-71.2%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AFL
Aflac Incorporated
|
NEUTRAL | $57.28B | 14.22 | 15.6% | 23.6% | $107.09 | |
|
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $57.94B | 36.06 | 14.1% | 19.9% | $100.98 | |
|
PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $54.35B | 11.42 | 24.4% | 15.0% | $56.89 | |
|
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $60.66B | 10.61 | 19.8% | 12.1% | $269.42 | |
|
BSBR
Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A.
|
BEARISH | $51.52B | 24.18 | 9.9% | 26.9% | $6.77 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | AMOS DANIEL P | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 161,175 | - |
| 2025-12-12 | BEAVER STEVEN KENT | Officer | Sale | 5,492 | $601,520 |
| 2025-12-12 | AMOS DANIEL P | Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 1,044 | - |
| 2025-12-05 | BEAVER STEVEN KENT | Officer | Sale | 3,452 | $377,166 |
| 2025-12-05 | TILLMAN AUDREY BOONE | Officer | Gift | 1,038 | - |
| 2025-12-05 | BEAVER STEVEN KENT | Officer | Option Exercise | 3,452 | $99,987 |
| 2025-11-18 | TILLMAN AUDREY BOONE | Officer | Sale | 15,862 | $1,776,544 |
| 2025-11-18 | TILLMAN AUDREY BOONE | Officer | Option Exercise | 15,862 | $459,443 |
| 2025-11-17 | MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L | Director | Sale | 786 | $89,404 |
| 2025-11-17 | MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L | Director | Option Exercise | 2,000 | $89,180 |
| 2025-11-14 | TILLMAN AUDREY BOONE | Officer | Sale | 3,452 | $397,325 |
| 2025-11-14 | TILLMAN AUDREY BOONE | Officer | Option Exercise | 3,452 | $99,987 |
| 2025-11-10 | BRODEN MAX | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 4,668 | $180,908 |
| 2025-11-07 | MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L | Director | Sale | 1,000 | $114,000 |
| 2025-11-07 | TILLMAN AUDREY BOONE | Officer | Gift | 26,970 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
13 analysts
Barclays
2026-01-08
Underweight
Underweight
JP Morgan
2026-01-05
Neutral
Neutral
Raymond James
2025-12-30
Outperform
Outperform
TD Cowen
2025-12-22
Hold
Hold
Mizuho
2025-12-16
Underperform
Morgan Stanley
2025-11-17
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Wells Fargo
2025-11-07
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Evercore ISI Group
2025-11-07
Underperform
Underperform
JP Morgan
2025-11-05
Neutral
Neutral
Barclays
2025-11-05
Underweight
Underweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AFL from our newsroom.
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