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AGM

NEUTRAL
$171.22 Live
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation · NYSE
Target $226.67 (+32.4%)
$155.0 52W Range $212.24

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AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
68%
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a mixed financial profile: the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates borderline stability, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a clear distress risk assessment. Despite strong profitability metrics—such as a 70.23% operating margin and 57.15% profit margin—the extremely high debt/equity ratio of 18.56 raises significant leverage concerns. The stock trades below the growth-based intrinsic value of $504.15 but above the defensive Graham Number of $203.62, suggesting overvaluation for conservative investors. Earnings growth and a solid dividend yield provide support, but weak technical trend and negative insider sentiment counterbalance these positives.

Key Strengths

High profitability with 70.23% operating margin and 57.15% profit margin
Strong year-over-year earnings growth of 15.00% and revenue growth of 11.10%
Attractive dividend yield of 3.41% with a sustainable 33.62% payout ratio
Trading below growth-based intrinsic value estimate of $504.15
Low P/E of 10.02 and forward P/E of 8.90, well below sector average of 22.56

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health and limited resilience
Extremely high debt/equity ratio of 18.56, far above sector average of 1.64
Bearish technical trend (0/100) and declining price performance over 1Y (-9.9%)
Negative insider sentiment with $1.18M in recent officer sales and no buys
Inconsistent earnings surprise record: only 2 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$203.62
+18.9% above current price

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