AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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AGM Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Financial Services
Credit Services
Current Price
Live
$171.22
Analyst Target
$226.67
+32.4%
Upside
52W High
$212.24
52W Low
$155.0
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$1.87B
P/E
10.02
ROE
13.7%
Profit margin
57.2%
Debt/Equity
18.56
Dividend yield
3.41%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
68%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a mixed financial profile: the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates borderline stability, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a clear distress risk assessment. Despite strong profitability metrics—such as a 70.23% operating margin and 57.15% profit margin—the extremely high debt/equity ratio of 18.56 raises significant leverage concerns. The stock trades below the growth-based intrinsic value of $504.15 but above the defensive Graham Number of $203.62, suggesting overvaluation for conservative investors. Earnings growth and a solid dividend yield provide support, but weak technical trend and negative insider sentiment counterbalance these positives.
Key Strengths
High profitability with 70.23% operating margin and 57.15% profit margin
Strong year-over-year earnings growth of 15.00% and revenue growth of 11.10%
Attractive dividend yield of 3.41% with a sustainable 33.62% payout ratio
Trading below growth-based intrinsic value estimate of $504.15
Low P/E of 10.02 and forward P/E of 8.90, well below sector average of 22.56
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health and limited resilience
Extremely high debt/equity ratio of 18.56, far above sector average of 1.64
Bearish technical trend (0/100) and declining price performance over 1Y (-9.9%)
Negative insider sentiment with $1.18M in recent officer sales and no buys
Inconsistent earnings surprise record: only 2 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$203.62
+18.9% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
59
Moderate
72
64
50
38
70
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside potential if leverage is addressed
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score limiting health score, Strong earnings growth and valuation discount to peers, High debt levels offsetting profitability strengths, Dividend sustainability supporting income appeal, Bearish technical and insider signals creating near-term headwinds
Confidence
70%
Value
72/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 10.02 below sector average of 22.56
- Forward P/E of 8.90 suggests earnings expansion
- Price below Graham Number ($171.22 vs $203.62)
Watchpoints
- Price/Sales of 4.94 is high relative to sector average
- No PEG ratio to assess growth-adjusted valuation
Future
64/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 15.00% YoY earnings growth
- 11.10% YoY revenue growth
- Q/Q earnings growth of 10.40%
Watchpoints
- Inconsistent quarterly earnings surprises
- Limited analyst coverage (only 3 analysts)
Past
50/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5Y price return of +153.5% shows long-term appreciation
- History of positive earnings surprises in earlier quarters
Watchpoints
- 1Y return of -9.9% underperforms sector
- Recent quarters show declining earnings beat frequency
Health
38/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.60 and quick ratio of 1.58 indicate short-term liquidity
- ROE of 13.72% above sector average despite negative peer mean
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Debt/Equity of 18.56 is extremely high and atypical for financials
- No Altman Z-Score available for distress risk modeling
Dividend
70/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 3.41% is attractive in current rate environment
- Payout ratio of 33.62% is sustainable
- Dividend strength score of 50/100 allows room for improvement
Watchpoints
- No 5-year average yield to assess consistency
- Ex-dividend date not disclosed
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$171.22
Analyst Target
$226.67
Upside/Downside
+32.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AGM and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGM
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
Primary
|
+153.5% | +48.7% | -9.9% | -0.9% | -3.9% | -0.9% |
|
AGM-A
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
Peer
|
+116.9% | +37.7% | -10.3% | +1.4% | -2.7% | +1.0% |
|
AAMI
Acadian Asset Management Inc.
Peer
|
+169.4% | +146.4% | +115.3% | +38.3% | +14.0% | +1.4% |
|
BLX
Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S. A.
Peer
|
+299.4% | +227.1% | +29.8% | +12.0% | +5.6% | +3.8% |
|
BDJ
BlackRock Enhanced Equity Dividend Trust
Peer
|
+74.8% | +37.0% | +19.0% | +12.5% | +2.6% | +0.9% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
10.02
Forward P/E
8.9
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.59
P/S Ratio
4.94
EV/Revenue
86.71
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$1.87B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
57.15%
Operating Margin
70.23%
Gross Margin
100.0%
ROE
13.72%
ROA
0.68%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+11.1%
Earnings Growth
+15.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+10.4%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
18.56
High debt
Current Ratio
1.6
Good
Quick Ratio
1.58
Excellent
Cash/Share
$84.14
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-20
$N/A
2025-11-03
$4.44
-3.1% surprise
2025-08-07
$4.32
+0.7% surprise
2025-05-09
$4.19
+3.2% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing AGM against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(6 bullish, 111 neutral, 91 bearish)
P/E Ratio
10.02
This Stock
vs
30.39
Sector Avg
-67.0%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
13.72%
This Stock
vs
-7.57%
Sector Avg
-281.1%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
57.15%
This Stock
vs
83.86%
Sector Avg
-31.8%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
18.56
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
+1128.1%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
11.1%
This Stock
vs
30.29%
Sector Avg
-63.3%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.6
This Stock
vs
3.78
Sector Avg
-57.8%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGM
Federal Agricultural...
|
NEUTRAL | $1.87B | 10.02 | 13.7% | 57.2% | $171.22 | |
|
AGM-A
Federal Agricultural...
|
NEUTRAL | $1.79B | 7.35 | 13.7% | 57.2% | $129.0 | |
|
AAMI
Acadian Asset Management Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $1.98B | 23.49 | 205.6% | 15.7% | $55.19 | |
|
BLX
Banco Latinoamericano de...
|
NEUTRAL | $1.72B | 7.9 | 15.0% | 72.1% | $46.76 | |
|
BDJ
BlackRock Enhanced Equity...
|
NEUTRAL | $1.68B | 9.79 | 10.3% | 384.9% | $9.5 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | JUNKINS LOWELL L | Director | Stock Award | 8 | $1,405 |
| 2025-12-31 | WARE TODD P. | Director | Stock Award | 23 | $4,038 |
| 2025-12-31 | GALES AMY H | Director | Stock Award | 112 | $19,664 |
| 2025-12-31 | MCKISSACK ERIC T | Director | Stock Award | 11 | $1,931 |
| 2025-12-31 | PLAGGE JEFFREY L | Director | Stock Award | 47 | $8,252 |
| 2025-12-31 | SEXTON ROBERT G | Director | Stock Award | 47 | $8,252 |
| 2025-12-31 | ENGEBRETSEN JAMES R | Director | Stock Award | 96 | $16,855 |
| 2025-12-11 | PULLINS MATTHEW M. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 1,491 | - |
| 2025-09-30 | JUNKINS LOWELL L | Director | Stock Award | 8 | $1,344 |
| 2025-09-30 | GALES AMY H | Director | Stock Award | 117 | $19,654 |
| 2025-09-30 | MCKISSACK ERIC T | Director | Stock Award | 12 | $2,016 |
| 2025-09-30 | PLAGGE JEFFREY L | Director | Stock Award | 49 | $8,231 |
| 2025-09-30 | CULVER CHESTER J | Director | Stock Award | 23 | $3,864 |
| 2025-09-30 | SEXTON ROBERT G | Director | Stock Award | 49 | $8,231 |
| 2025-09-30 | WARE TODD P. | Director | Stock Award | 24 | $4,032 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
3 analysts
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-11-05
Market Perform
Outperform
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-08-08
Market Perform
Market Perform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AGM from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.