AGRO Adecoagro S.A. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AGRO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Consumer Defensive
Farm Products
Current Price
Live
$8.93
Analyst Target
$10.25
+14.8%
Upside
52W High
$11.79
52W Low
$6.89
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$1.26B
P/E
38.83
ROE
1.7%
Profit margin
1.7%
Debt/Equity
1.12
Dividend yield
3.92%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
The deterministic health scores paint a concerning picture, with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating marginal financial stability and no available Altman Z-Score to confirm safety from distress. Despite trading above the Graham Number of $8.42 at $8.93, the company faces severe profitability and growth headwinds, including a -35.5% YoY revenue decline and -65.6% earnings drop. Margins are thin, ROE and ROA are below sector averages, and the dividend is unsustainable with a 149% payout ratio. While the technical trend shows a short-term bounce, fundamental deterioration dominates the outlook.
Key Strengths
Current ratio of 2.80 indicates strong short-term liquidity
Stock trades close to Graham Number ($8.42) suggesting limited downside in defensive valuation terms
Recent 1-month price appreciation of +12.5% shows potential short-term momentum
Dividend yield of 3.92% is attractive relative to sector peers
Price/Book of 0.65 suggests shares trade below book value, implying possible asset-based margin of safety
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals weak financial health with risk of further deterioration
Severe revenue and earnings contraction: -35.5% YoY revenue growth and -65.6% YoY earnings growth
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 149.15%, threatening future distributions
High debt/equity ratio of 1.12, above peer average of 0.63, increasing financial risk
Extreme earnings volatility and negative surprises in recent quarters, including -168% miss in Aug 2025
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$7.5
-16.0% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
37
Weak
62
25
35
30
33
AI Verdict
Fundamentally weak with high risk and limited margin of safety
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score, Negative growth trends, Unsustainable dividend, High earnings volatility, Leveraged balance sheet
Confidence
88%
Value
62/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Price near Graham Number ($8.42 vs $8.93)
- P/B of 0.65 indicates asset discount
Watchpoints
- P/E of 38.83 is high for a shrinking business
- Forward P/E of 6.55 not credible given earnings instability
Future
25/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Forward P/E suggests potential earnings recovery
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth YoY: -35.50%
- Earnings growth YoY: -65.60%
- Q/Q EPS growth: -200.0%
- No PEG ratio due to unreliable growth trajectory
Past
35/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-year price return of +28.7% outperforms sector average
Watchpoints
- Consistent earnings misses: only 1 beat in last 4 quarters
- High historical earnings volatility and negative surprises
- Long-term profit margin of just 1.69%
Health
30/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 2.80 supports short-term solvency
- Quick ratio of 1.17 is acceptable
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- No Altman Z-Score available raises red flag
- Debt/Equity of 1.12 is elevated for sector
- ROE of 1.69% well below sector average of 4.20%
Dividend
33/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 3.92% is above market average
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 149.15% is unsustainable
- Dividend strength score of 20/100 indicates high risk of cut
- No 5-year average yield data, suggesting inconsistency
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$8.93
Analyst Target
$10.25
Upside/Downside
+14.8%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AGRO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGRO
Adecoagro S.A.
Primary
|
+28.7% | +16.0% | -4.0% | -5.6% | +12.5% | +9.2% |
|
AFYA
Afya Limited
Peer
|
-39.7% | +5.1% | -17.9% | -6.6% | -3.4% | -8.8% |
|
AVO
Mission Produce, Inc.
Peer
|
-17.1% | +10.2% | +11.6% | +11.7% | +14.5% | +8.2% |
|
APEI
American Public Education, Inc.
Peer
|
+44.9% | +234.8% | +104.3% | +50.5% | +13.9% | +7.4% |
|
BGS
B&G Foods, Inc.
Peer
|
-79.7% | -56.7% | -21.4% | +6.6% | +1.4% | +0.5% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
38.83
Forward P/E
6.55
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.65
P/S Ratio
0.91
EV/Revenue
1.59
EV/EBITDA
7.69
Market Cap
$1.26B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
1.69%
Operating Margin
4.1%
Gross Margin
18.63%
ROE
1.69%
ROA
1.57%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-35.5%
Earnings Growth
-65.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-65.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.12
Moderate
Current Ratio
2.8
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.17
Good
Cash/Share
$3.65
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-12
$N/A
2025-08-18
$-0.18
-168.1% surprise
2025-05-12
$0.18
+305.0% surprise
2025-03-13
$0.16
-64.2% surprise
Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison
Comparing AGRO against 48 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector
(3 bullish, 26 neutral, 19 bearish)
P/E Ratio
38.83
This Stock
vs
28.82
Sector Avg
+34.7%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
1.69%
This Stock
vs
4.7%
Sector Avg
-64.0%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
1.69%
This Stock
vs
-1.11%
Sector Avg
-251.5%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.12
This Stock
vs
1.71
Sector Avg
-34.8%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-35.5%
This Stock
vs
9.45%
Sector Avg
-475.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
2.8
This Stock
vs
1.97
Sector Avg
+41.9%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AGRO
Adecoagro S.A.
|
BEARISH | $1.26B | 38.83 | 1.7% | 1.7% | $8.93 | |
|
AFYA
Afya Limited
|
NEUTRAL | $1.28B | 9.44 | 16.7% | 20.1% | $14.07 | |
|
AVO
Mission Produce, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $953.5M | 25.4 | 6.8% | 2.7% | $13.46 | |
|
APEI
American Public Education, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $811.84M | 34.27 | 11.2% | 4.9% | $44.89 | |
|
BGS
B&G Foods, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $352.82M | - | -40.9% | -13.6% | $4.41 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
6 analysts
UBS
2025-12-02
Neutral
Neutral
UBS
2025-09-03
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AGRO from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.