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AIG American International Group, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL
AIG Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Financial Services Insurance - Diversified
Current Price
$77.75
Analyst Target
$88.44
+13.8% Upside
52W High
$88.07
52W Low
$69.24

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 15, 2025
Market cap
$42.28B
P/E
13.98
ROE
7.7%
Profit margin
12.0%
Debt/Equity
0.22
Dividend yield
2.32%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
American International Group (AIG) trades at a significant valuation discount to the broader Financial Services sector, supported by a solid balance sheet and attractive dividend yield. However, tepid revenue growth, inconsistent earnings delivery, and recent insider selling temper enthusiasm despite strong long-term price appreciation. The stock is priced for modest improvement, with a forward P/E of 11.59 well below the sector average of 24.97, but lackluster margins and operational execution raise concerns about sustained outperformance. Analysts are collectively bullish with a $88.44 target implying ~14% upside, yet the absence of recent earnings beats and weakening near-term momentum (-6.8% over 6M) suggest limited near-term catalysts.

Key Strengths

Attractive valuation: Forward P/E of 11.59 vs sector average of 24.97, offering significant relative discount
Low leverage: Debt/Equity of 0.22, well below sector average of 0.73, providing financial flexibility
Healthy dividend yield of 2.32% with sustainable 30.58% payout ratio
Strong operating margin of 15.24%, indicating pricing power and cost discipline
Analyst consensus target of $88.44 implies 13.7% upside from current levels

Key Risks

Revenue declining YoY by 4.10%, signaling underlying business weakness in core insurance operations
Poor earnings surprise record: 0 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates, indicating persistent execution issues
Weak liquidity profile: Current ratio of 0.62 and quick ratio of 0.21 suggest potential near-term cash flow constraints
ROE of 7.69% lags far behind sector average of 31.58%, reflecting inefficient capital use
Recent insider selling: $2.53M in officer sales with no offsetting buys, signaling lack of confidence
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$88.44
+13.7% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
66
Strong
Value
85
Future
50
Past
58
Health
64
Dividend
72
AI Verdict
AIG presents a mixed profile: attractively valued and well-leveraged relative to peers like PYPL and PNC, but hampered by weak revenue growth, poor earnings delivery, and deteriorating insider sentiment. While the stock offers value and income appeal, its operational underperformance and low profitability metrics relative to the sector limit its upside potential absent a meaningful turnaround.
Key drivers: Valuation discount to sector (P/E 11.59 vs 24.97), Declining revenue and stagnant earnings momentum, Dividend yield and low debt providing floor to downside
Confidence
68%
Value
85/100

AIG is significantly cheaper than the Financial Services sector on earnings and book value, but its lower profitability and growth justify only part of the discount, suggesting some value trap risk.

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 11.59 at a steep discount to sector average of 24.97
  • Price/Book of 1.03 suggests shares trade near tangible book value, typical of insurance peers
Watchpoints
  • EV/EBITDA and other enterprise metrics unavailable, limiting full valuation picture
  • Low ROE (7.69%) questions the quality of earnings despite low P/B
Future
50/100

Despite strong YoY earnings growth, the persistent revenue decline and lack of earnings beats undermine confidence in future momentum, especially as 6-month price performance is negative (-6.8%).

Positives
  • Earnings growth of 32.30% YoY indicates some profitability improvement
  • Q/Q earnings growth of 13.10% shows recent acceleration in bottom-line performance
Watchpoints
  • Revenue declining by 4.10% YoY raises concerns about top-line sustainability
  • No recent earnings beats, suggesting growth is not translating into upside surprises
Past
58/100

While AIG has delivered strong long-term returns, recent price action and a complete lack of earnings beats over the last year highlight deteriorating operational consistency and investor sentiment.

Positives
  • 5-year stock return of +127.0% reflects strong long-term capital appreciation
  • Consistent profitability with 12.02% net margin and positive operating leverage
Watchpoints
  • Last 4 quarters missed or matched estimates with 0% average surprise, indicating poor execution
  • 1-year return of only +4.9% and 6-month decline of -6.8% show recent underperformance
Health
64/100

AIG’s balance sheet is conservatively leveraged, but its weak liquidity ratios suggest potential operational cash flow challenges, especially for an insurance firm requiring strong short-term asset coverage.

Positives
  • Very low Debt/Equity ratio of 0.22, well below sector average of 0.73
  • No immediate refinancing risk given conservative leverage
Watchpoints
  • Current ratio of 0.62 and quick ratio of 0.21 indicate severe liquidity constraints
  • Total cash and debt figures unavailable, raising transparency concerns
Dividend
72/100

The dividend appears sustainable given the low payout ratio and stable earnings, but absence of long-term yield and growth data limits confidence in its strategic importance to capital allocation.

Positives
  • Dividend yield of 2.32% is attractive in current rate environment
  • Payout ratio of 30.58% is well-covered by earnings, indicating sustainability
Watchpoints
  • No data on dividend growth history or policy consistency
  • Lack of long-term yield average limits visibility into income reliability

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$77.75
Analyst Target
$88.44
Upside/Downside
+13.8%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AIG and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
AIG
American International Group, Inc.
Primary
+127.0% +37.3% +4.9% -6.8% -4.3% +1.1%
AMP
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
Peer
+165.9% +47.8% -17.4% -12.0% -4.5% -0.4%
MSCI
MSCI Inc.
Peer
+49.6% +16.3% -5.3% -0.6% +3.2% -2.7%
PRU
Prudential Financial, Inc.
Peer
+80.8% +15.1% -10.6% +2.4% +3.9% +0.8%
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Peer
+175.6% +73.1% -2.8% -2.2% +3.3% +3.3%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
13.98
Forward P/E
11.59
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.03
P/S Ratio
1.56
EV/Revenue
1.48
EV/EBITDA
4.84
Market Cap
$42.28B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 12.02%
Operating Margin 15.24%
Gross Margin 34.01%
ROE 7.69%
ROA 1.78%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -4.1%
Earnings Growth +32.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth +13.1%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.22
Low debt
Current Ratio
0.62
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.21
Poor
Cash/Share
$20.39

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-02-10
$N/A
2025-11-04
$2.2
+28.5% surprise
2025-08-06
$1.98
+17.2% surprise
2025-05-01
$1.16
+20.2% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing AIG against 32 companies in the Financial Services sector (19 bullish, 12 neutral, 1 bearish)
P/E Ratio
13.98
This Stock
vs
22.34
Sector Avg
-37.4% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
7.69%
This Stock
vs
26.06%
Sector Avg
-70.5% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
12.02%
This Stock
vs
25.09%
Sector Avg
-52.1% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.22
This Stock
vs
0.75
Sector Avg
-70.2% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-4.1%
This Stock
vs
20.1%
Sector Avg
-120.4% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.62
This Stock
vs
1.41
Sector Avg
-56.3% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
AIG
American International Group, Inc.
NEUTRAL $42.28B 13.98 7.7% 12.0% $77.75
AMP
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
BULLISH $42.68B 12.59 59.6% 19.6% $458.0
MSCI
MSCI Inc.
BULLISH $43.08B 35.84 -% 40.0% $565.15
PRU
Prudential Financial, Inc.
NEUTRAL $37.74B 14.68 8.5% 4.5% $107.16
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
BULLISH $33.64B 8.67 17.8% 21.0% $92.52

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-10-16 DANDRIDGE EDWARD LEE Officer Stock Award 2,811 -
2025-09-30 INGLIS JOHN C Director Purchase 15 $1,193
2025-08-18 ZAFFINO PETER Chief Executive Officer Gift 31,760 -
2025-08-08 INGLIS JOHN C Director Purchase 653 $50,307
2025-06-27 INGLIS JOHN C Director Purchase 10 $895
2025-06-16 FRY CHARLES ANTHONY Officer Stock Award 4,531 -
2025-05-20 CARBONE KATHLEEN Officer Option Exercise 25,809 $1,477,916
2025-05-20 CARBONE KATHLEEN Officer Sale 30,073 $2,527,891
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
18 analysts
Wells Fargo
2025-11-12
main
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Barclays
2025-11-05
main
Overweight Overweight
JP Morgan
2025-10-09
main
Neutral Neutral
UBS
2025-10-08
main
Buy Buy
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-07
main
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Piper Sandler
2025-10-02
main
Overweight Overweight
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-01
main
In-Line In-Line
Wolfe Research
2025-09-16
init
Peer Perform
Citigroup
2025-08-13
init
Neutral
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-08-12
main
Outperform Outperform