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AII American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

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AII Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Financial Services Insurance - Property & Casualty
Current Price Live
$18.5
Analyst Target
$27.0
+45.9% Upside
52W High
$26.36
52W Low
$15.78

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AI Analysis

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Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a mixed picture: the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates borderline financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score limits distress risk assessment. Despite strong profitability and growth metrics—evidenced by 31.63% profit margin and 103% YoY earnings growth—the stock trades below the analyst target of $27.00 but above the Graham Number of $39.6, suggesting overvaluation on a defensive basis. Bearish insider activity, declining technical trend, and weak recent quarterly momentum temper otherwise positive fundamentals. The market appears conflicted, balancing strong operating performance against structural concerns and negative sentiment signals.

Key Strengths

Exceptionally high profit margin (31.63%) and operating margin (30.27%) indicate strong underwriting discipline and cost control
Robust revenue growth of 33.30% YoY outpaces sector average of 31.01%, signaling competitive market positioning
Very low debt/equity ratio of 0.01 reflects conservative capital structure and minimal leverage risk
Earnings growth of 103% YoY and 191.7% Q/Q demonstrates explosive recent profitability expansion
Analyst recommendation consensus is 'buy' with a $27.00 target price, implying ~46% upside

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, potentially signaling instability despite surface-level strength
Altman Z-Score is unavailable, creating a critical blind spot in bankruptcy risk assessment
Insider selling of $63.74M in the last 6 months, including CEO and major shareholders, suggests lack of confidence at the top
Technical trend score of 0/100 and recent price decline (-10.8% over 1M) reflect strong bearish momentum
Most recent Q/Q EPS growth is -58.6%, indicating a sharp reversal in earnings trajectory despite prior strength
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$39.6
+114.1% above current price

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