AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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AJG Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Financial Services
Insurance Brokers
Current Price
Live
$253.21
Analyst Target
$293.56
+15.9%
Upside
52W High
$351.23
52W Low
$236.34
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$65.03B
P/E
40.0
ROE
9.1%
Profit margin
13.3%
Debt/Equity
0.59
Dividend yield
1.04%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
AJG's deterministic health score is weak, with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating marginal financial stability and no available Altman Z-Score to confirm safety from distress. Despite strong revenue growth of 20% YoY, earnings are sharply declining (-25.2% YoY, -54% EPS), and the stock trades at a steep valuation (P/E 40.0, Forward P/E 19.06) well above sector averages. Insider selling is aggressive ($17.16M in net sales), and recent earnings misses have become frequent, with 3 out of the last 4 quarters missing estimates. While the balance sheet shows moderate leverage (Debt/Equity 0.59), weak profitability trends, deteriorating earnings momentum, and bearish technicals point to significant near-term risks.
Key Strengths
Strong year-over-year revenue growth of 20.0%, outpacing many peers in the Financial Services sector
Moderate debt levels with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.59, below the sector average of 2.02
High gross margin of 43.60%, reflecting pricing power and efficient cost structure in core brokerage operations
Analyst recommendation consensus is 'buy' with a target price of $293.56, implying 15.9% upside
Operating cash flow and free cash flow are likely stable given consistent dividend payments and low payout ratio
Key Risks
Earnings under severe pressure: YoY earnings growth at -25.2% and Q/Q EPS down -55.4%, indicating rapid deterioration
Very low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, signaling weak financial health—particularly concerning given declining profitability and cash flow metrics
Rich valuation: P/E of 40.0 is more than double the sector average (21.69) and far exceeds Forward P/E of 19.06, demanding perfect execution
Aggressive insider selling: $17.16M in sales over last 6 months with zero buys, including CFO and General Counsel—strong bearish signal
Recent earnings track record has deteriorated: 3 of last 4 quarters missed estimates, with an average surprise of -11.61% over that period
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$113.45
-55.2% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
40
Weak
25
30
55
38
50
AI Verdict
Overvalued with deteriorating fundamentals and weak financial health
Key drivers: High P/E relative to earnings decline, Poor Piotroski F-Score, Negative insider activity, Earnings growth collapse, Rich valuation vs Graham Number
Confidence
80%
Value
25/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 19.06 suggests some de-rating priced in
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 40.0 is extremely high
- Price/Sales of 5.38 is elevated
- Stock trades at more than double the Graham Number ($113.45 vs $253.21)
Future
30/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth remains strong at 20.0% YoY
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth is sharply negative (-25.2% YoY)
- Q/Q EPS down -55.4%
- PEG Ratio unavailable due to unreliable growth trajectory
Past
55/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historically strong earnings beat record prior to 2024
- Long-term price appreciation: +125.8% over 5 years
Watchpoints
- Recent quarters show consistent misses (3 of last 4)
- 1Y and 6M price returns are negative (-11.3%, -19.3%)
Health
38/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 0.59 is conservative
- Current Ratio of 1.05 indicates short-term solvency
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Quick Ratio of 0.17 is dangerously low
- No Altman Z-Score available to confirm financial stability
Dividend
50/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Payout ratio of 40.73% is sustainable
- Dividend yield of 1.04% provides modest income
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength score is only 40/100
- No data on 5-year yield average or growth trend
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$253.21
Analyst Target
$293.56
Upside/Downside
+15.9%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AJG and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Primary
|
+125.8% | +32.2% | -11.3% | -19.3% | -2.9% | -2.0% |
|
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
Peer
|
-26.5% | +345.4% | -14.4% | -42.5% | -1.2% | +0.1% |
|
TFC
Truist Financial Corporation
Peer
|
+21.2% | +24.8% | +16.6% | +15.7% | -0.3% | -1.2% |
|
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.
Peer
|
+107.6% | +54.2% | +13.0% | +2.1% | -7.5% | -4.5% |
|
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.
Peer
|
+127.9% | +66.3% | +30.4% | +13.7% | +7.8% | +2.8% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
40.0
Forward P/E
19.06
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.8
P/S Ratio
5.38
EV/Revenue
6.41
EV/EBITDA
22.48
Market Cap
$65.03B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
13.26%
Operating Margin
17.21%
Gross Margin
43.6%
ROE
9.07%
ROA
2.3%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+20.0%
Earnings Growth
-25.2%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-12.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.59
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.05
Good
Quick Ratio
0.17
Poor
Cash/Share
$5.46
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-01-29
$N/A
2025-10-30
$1.04
-36.8% surprise
2025-07-31
$2.33
-0.6% surprise
2025-05-01
$3.67
+2.5% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing AJG against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(6 bullish, 111 neutral, 91 bearish)
P/E Ratio
40.0
This Stock
vs
30.39
Sector Avg
+31.6%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
9.07%
This Stock
vs
-7.57%
Sector Avg
-219.7%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
13.26%
This Stock
vs
83.86%
Sector Avg
-84.2%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.59
This Stock
vs
1.51
Sector Avg
-61.0%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
20.0%
This Stock
vs
30.29%
Sector Avg
-34.0%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.05
This Stock
vs
3.78
Sector Avg
-72.1%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
|
BEARISH | $65.03B | 40.0 | 9.1% | 13.3% | $253.21 | |
|
COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $65.03B | 20.82 | 26.0% | 43.7% | $241.15 | |
|
TFC
Truist Financial Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $64.46B | 13.4 | 8.0% | 28.6% | $49.99 | |
|
TRV
The Travelers Companies, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $60.66B | 10.61 | 19.8% | 12.1% | $269.42 | |
|
NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $57.94B | 36.06 | 14.1% | 19.9% | $100.98 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | JAIN VISHAL | Officer | Stock Award | 954 | - |
| 2025-12-23 | MEAD CHRISTOPHER E. | Officer | Sale | 4,000 | $1,032,440 |
| 2025-12-23 | MEAD CHRISTOPHER E. | Officer | Gift | 388 | - |
| 2025-12-23 | MEAD CHRISTOPHER E. | Officer | Option Exercise | 4,000 | $318,360 |
| 2025-12-22 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 5,000 | $1,290,242 |
| 2025-12-22 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K | Chief Financial Officer | Gift | 196 | - |
| 2025-12-19 | BAY WALTER D | General Counsel | Sale | 15,850 | $4,041,750 |
| 2025-12-19 | BAY WALTER D | General Counsel | Gift | 1,724 | - |
| 2025-12-19 | BAY WALTER D | General Counsel | Option Exercise | 15,850 | $1,261,502 |
| 2025-12-01 | MISKEL CHRISTOPHER C. | Director | Stock Award | 162 | $40,000 |
| 2025-12-01 | JOHNSON DAVID S | Director | Stock Award | 198 | $48,750 |
| 2025-11-21 | MEAD CHRISTOPHER E. | Officer | Sale | 1,250 | $313,425 |
| 2025-11-18 | CARY RICHARD C | Officer | Sale | 6,000 | $1,566,000 |
| 2025-11-03 | PESCH MICHAEL ROBERT | Officer | Purchase | 4,000 | $988,488 |
| 2025-09-22 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 14,000 | $4,191,935 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
18 analysts
Cantor Fitzgerald
2026-01-14
Overweight
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2026-01-13
Overweight
Overweight
BMO Capital
2026-01-13
Outperform
Market Perform
Barclays
2026-01-08
Underweight
Underweight
Piper Sandler
2026-01-07
Overweight
Neutral
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-01-06
Market Perform
Market Perform
Wells Fargo
2025-12-23
Overweight
Overweight
Wells Fargo
2025-12-22
Overweight
Overweight
Morgan Stanley
2025-12-19
Overweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-12-18
Market Perform
Market Perform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning AJG from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.