AJG
BEARISH
$253.21
Live
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. · NYSE
Target $293.56
(+15.9%)
$236.34
52W Range
$351.23
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
78%
AJG's deterministic health score is weak, with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating marginal financial stability and no available Altman Z-Score to confirm safety from distress. Despite strong revenue growth of 20% YoY, earnings are sharply declining (-25.2% YoY, -54% EPS), and the stock trades at a steep valuation (P/E 40.0, Forward P/E 19.06) well above sector averages. Insider selling is aggressive ($17.16M in net sales), and recent earnings misses have become frequent, with 3 out of the last 4 quarters missing estimates. While the balance sheet shows moderate leverage (Debt/Equity 0.59), weak profitability trends, deteriorating earnings momentum, and bearish technicals point to significant near-term risks.
Key Strengths
Strong year-over-year revenue growth of 20.0%, outpacing many peers in the Financial Services sector
Moderate debt levels with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.59, below the sector average of 2.02
High gross margin of 43.60%, reflecting pricing power and efficient cost structure in core brokerage operations
Analyst recommendation consensus is 'buy' with a target price of $293.56, implying 15.9% upside
Operating cash flow and free cash flow are likely stable given consistent dividend payments and low payout ratio
Key Risks
Earnings under severe pressure: YoY earnings growth at -25.2% and Q/Q EPS down -55.4%, indicating rapid deterioration
Very low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, signaling weak financial health—particularly concerning given declining profitability and cash flow metrics
Rich valuation: P/E of 40.0 is more than double the sector average (21.69) and far exceeds Forward P/E of 19.06, demanding perfect execution
Aggressive insider selling: $17.16M in sales over last 6 months with zero buys, including CFO and General Counsel—strong bearish signal
Recent earnings track record has deteriorated: 3 of last 4 quarters missed estimates, with an average surprise of -11.61% over that period
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$113.45
-55.2% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare AJG against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
Track insider transactions and Wall Street analyst recommendations
Past News Coverage
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