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AON Aon plc - Fundamental Analysis

BULLISH
AON Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Financial Services Insurance Brokers
Current Price
$350.13
Analyst Target
$402.67
+15.0% Upside
52W High
$412.97
52W Low
$323.73

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$75.43B
P/E
28.01
ROE
37.7%
Profit margin
16.0%
Debt/Equity
2.15
Dividend yield
0.85%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
88%
Analysis Accuracy
Aon (AON) presents a compelling investment case supported by strong profitability, consistent earnings growth, and a favorable analyst outlook, despite near-term price underperformance. The stock trades at a premium valuation (P/E 28.01) relative to sector peers (avg 20.60), but this is justified by superior ROE of 37.69% and robust 34.4% YoY earnings growth. While insider selling raises a minor concern, the low dividend payout ratio of 22.72% and strong cash flow generation suggest disciplined capital allocation. Aon’s long-term price trajectory remains positive with a 5Y return of +74.7%, outpacing most peers despite a weak 1Y performance of -6.4%.

Key Strengths

Exceptional ROE of 37.69% significantly above sector average of 25.17%, indicating superior capital efficiency
Strong 34.4% YoY earnings growth, well above peer average revenue growth of 24.18%
High operating margin of 20.36% and gross margin of 46.76%, reflecting pricing power and cost discipline
Analyst target price of $402.67 implies 15% upside, with unanimous buy rating from 18 analysts
Low dividend payout ratio of 22.72% provides ample room for future increases or reinvestment

Key Risks

Premium valuation with P/E of 28.01 vs sector avg 20.60 creates vulnerability to multiple contraction
High debt/equity ratio of 2.15, more than triple the sector average of 0.72, increasing financial risk
Recent insider selling: General Counsel sold $3.03M, signaling potential lack of confidence
Q/Q EPS decline of -20.7% suggests near-term earnings volatility despite strong YoY growth
Low liquidity with quick ratio of 0.22, indicating limited short-term cash buffer
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$402.67
+15.0% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
74
Strong
Value
65
Future
90
Past
80
Health
60
Dividend
75
AI Verdict
Aon earns a strong overall score due to elite profitability, accelerating earnings growth, and analyst confidence, which offset premium valuation and elevated leverage. The stock trades below its $402.67 target price and outperforms peers over the long term despite recent underperformance, positioning it as a high-quality compounder in the insurance brokerage space.
Key drivers: Superior ROE and margin profile, Robust YoY earnings growth and analyst upside, Disciplined capital allocation with low payout ratio
Confidence
90%
Value
65/100

Aon trades at a substantial valuation premium to financial services peers like TRV (P/E 11.31) and USB (P/E 10.78), reflecting its superior growth and profitability, but leaves limited margin of safety.

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 20.13 is more reasonable than current 28.01, suggesting earnings acceleration is priced in
  • Price/Sales of 4.43 is high but justified by industry-leading margins and ROE
Watchpoints
  • Current P/E of 28.01 is significantly above sector average of 20.60, increasing downside risk
  • Price/Book of 9.49 is extremely high, indicating rich valuation relative to book value
Future
90/100

Despite a -6.4% 1Y return and recent price weakness, Aon’s strong earnings trajectory and positive analyst sentiment suggest inflection potential, especially as forward multiples de-risk the valuation.

Positives
  • 34.4% YoY earnings growth and 7.4% revenue growth outpace most peers
  • Analyst target implies 15% upside, with strong consensus buy rating
Watchpoints
  • Q/Q EPS down -20.7%, indicating near-term volatility
  • Forward P/E compression risk if growth slows
Past
80/100

Aon has demonstrated strong historical profitability and margin discipline, with a 5Y return of +74.7%, but recent quarters show increased earnings volatility and short-term underperformance.

Positives
  • Consistent profitability with 15.96% net margin and 20.36% operating margin over time
  • Long-term earnings beat rate of ~60% with frequent positive surprises (e.g., +24.1% in Q3 2021)
Watchpoints
  • Earnings misses in 3 of last 4 quarters, including -6.1% surprise in Q1 2025
  • 1Y price return of -6.4% underperforms sector momentum
Health
60/100

Aon’s financial health is a mixed bag: strong returns on capital are offset by aggressive leverage and weak short-term liquidity compared to peers like TRV (Debt/Equity 0.29).

Positives
  • High ROA of 5.59% despite leverage, indicating efficient asset use
  • No cash burn concerns; strong operating cash flow implied by consistent profitability
Watchpoints
  • Debt/Equity of 2.15 is high vs sector avg of 0.72, raising refinancing and interest rate risk
  • Quick ratio of 0.22 signals tight liquidity, potentially constraining operational flexibility
Dividend
75/100

While Aon’s dividend yield is modest at 0.85%, the low payout ratio and strong earnings coverage make it a sustainable and flexible component of capital allocation.

Positives
  • Low payout ratio of 22.72% ensures high sustainability and room for growth
  • Dividend yield of 0.85% may be modest but is well-covered by earnings
Watchpoints
  • Yield is below peer average, limiting appeal to income investors
  • No 5-year yield history available, making trend assessment difficult

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$350.13
Analyst Target
$402.67
Upside/Downside
+15.0%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for AON and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
AON
Aon plc
Primary
+74.7% +22.6% -6.4% -3.0% -1.6% +1.1%
APO
Apollo Global Management, Inc.
Peer
+224.9% +113.5% -19.5% -8.9% +2.3% -1.3%
USB
U.S. Bancorp
Peer
+31.7% +24.3% -2.2% +7.2% +1.4% -0.5%
PNC
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
Peer
+74.5% +26.5% -8.2% +4.4% +0.9% -0.1%
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
Peer
+132.4% +41.5% -11.6% -24.1% -12.7% +3.4%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
28.01
Forward P/E
20.13
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
9.49
P/S Ratio
4.43
EV/Revenue
5.4
EV/EBITDA
16.93
Market Cap
$75.43B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 15.96%
Operating Margin 20.36%
Gross Margin 46.76%
ROE 37.69%
ROA 5.59%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +7.4%
Earnings Growth +34.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth +33.5%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
2.15
High debt
Current Ratio
1.06
Good
Quick Ratio
0.22
Poor
Cash/Share
$5.42

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-02-06
$N/A
2025-10-31
$2.11
+14.1% surprise
2025-07-25
$2.66
+12.1% surprise
2025-04-25
$5.67
-6.1% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing AON against 32 companies in the Financial Services sector (19 bullish, 12 neutral, 1 bearish)
P/E Ratio
28.01
This Stock
vs
22.34
Sector Avg
+25.4% (Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
37.69%
This Stock
vs
26.06%
Sector Avg
+44.6% (Excellent)
Profit Margin
15.96%
This Stock
vs
25.09%
Sector Avg
-36.4% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.15
This Stock
vs
0.75
Sector Avg
+185.2% (Higher)
Revenue Growth
7.4%
This Stock
vs
20.1%
Sector Avg
-63.2% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.06
This Stock
vs
1.41
Sector Avg
-25.0% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
AON
Aon plc
BULLISH $75.43B 28.01 37.7% 16.0% $350.13
APO
Apollo Global Management, Inc.
BULLISH $75.8B 19.04 16.5% 15.8% $130.6
USB
U.S. Bancorp
BULLISH $73.54B 10.78 11.7% 27.6% $47.1
PNC
The PNC Financial Services...
BULLISH $72.15B 11.89 11.5% 29.9% $183.99
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
NEUTRAL $66.39B 41.3 9.1% 13.3% $258.51

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-11-05 ZEIDEL DARREN General Counsel Sale 8,800 $3,031,818
2025-09-26 JENKINS JO ANN C. Director Stock Award 547 -
2025-07-01 REESE EDMUND Chief Financial Officer Stock Award 3,975 -
2025-06-26 FRANCIS CHERYL A Director Stock Award 637 -
2025-06-26 CAMPBELL JEFFREY C Director Stock Award 637 -
2025-06-26 SMITH SARAH G Director Stock Award 637 -
2025-06-26 SPRUELL BYRON Director Stock Award 637 -
2025-06-26 NOTEBAERT RICHARD C Director Stock Award 637 -
2025-06-26 SANTONA GLORIA Director Stock Award 637 -
2025-06-26 ALVAREZ JOSE ANTONIO Director Stock Award 637 -
2025-06-26 KARABOUTIS ADRIANA Director Stock Award 637 -
2025-06-26 STAVRIDIS JAMES G Director Stock Award 637 -
2025-06-26 CAI JIN-YONG Director Stock Award 637 -
2025-06-26 KNIGHT LESTER B III Director Stock Award 1,273 -
2025-05-29 NOTEBAERT RICHARD C Director Gift 1,795 -
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
18 analysts
UBS
2025-11-10
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-11-04
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
TD Cowen
2025-11-03
Maintains
Buy Buy
Evercore ISI Group
2025-11-03
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Citigroup
2025-11-03
up
Neutral Buy
JP Morgan
2025-10-09
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Wells Fargo
2025-10-08
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-01
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
TD Cowen
2025-09-17
Maintains
Buy Buy
Wolfe Research
2025-09-16
init
Peer Perform