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ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

BULLISH
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ARCO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Consumer Cyclical Restaurants
Current Price Live
$7.71
Analyst Target
$9.91
+28.5% Upside
52W High
$8.98
52W Low
$6.51

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AI Analysis

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Confidence Score
87%
Analysis Accuracy
ARCO's Piotroski F-Score of 4 indicates a borderline stable financial health, though it falls short of strong fundamentals. The absence of an Altman Z-Score raises concern about default risk, particularly given a high debt/equity ratio of 2.76 and weak liquidity (current ratio of 0.89). However, the stock trades at a deeply discounted valuation relative to its intrinsic value ($34.52) and Graham Number ($9.65), with a current price of $7.71, suggesting significant undervaluation. Exceptional earnings growth (327% YoY) and a history of large positive earnings surprises further support a bullish outlook, despite inconsistent beat rates. The strong ROE of 39.03% and low payout ratio (20.51%) indicate efficient capital use and room for dividend growth.

Key Strengths

Significant undervaluation relative to intrinsic value ($34.52) and Graham Number ($9.65)
Exceptional earnings growth (327% YoY) and consistent positive earnings surprises (avg +151.49%)
High return on equity (39.03%) and strong operating margin (12.34%)
Low dividend payout ratio (20.51%) allowing for future dividend increases or reinvestment
Strong historical price performance (61.7% 5Y return) despite recent pullback

Key Risks

Piotroski F-Score of 4 indicates weak financial health; lacks strong balance sheet signals
No Altman Z-Score available; high debt/equity (2.76) and low current ratio (0.89) suggest liquidity and solvency concerns
Technical trend is bearish (0/100), with recent 1-month decline of 8.3%
Inconsistent earnings beat rate (2/4 in last 4 quarters) and volatile earnings history
Missing key financials (EV, FCF, cash, debt) limit full financial health assessment
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$34.52
+347.7% above current price

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