ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
Sign in to save
Save this symbol to a watchlist or track a position.
ARR Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Real Estate
REIT - Mortgage
Current Price
Live
$18.36
Analyst Target
$18.62
+1.4%
Upside
52W High
$19.31
52W Low
$13.18
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$2.07B
P/E
96.63
ROE
3.7%
Profit margin
55.3%
Debt/Equity
7.81
Dividend yield
15.62%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
The deterministic health scores paint a concerning picture, with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating marginal financial stability and no available Altman Z-Score, raising transparency concerns. Despite a high dividend yield of 15.62%, the unsustainable payout ratio of 1515.79% and deteriorating earnings (YoY EPS decline of 28.0%) signal severe dividend risk. Valuation metrics are mixed: while the P/B of 0.97 suggests near-book value, the sky-high P/E of 96.63 and negative earnings surprises over the last four quarters imply overvaluation relative to performance. Insider selling, weakening profitability trends, and aggressive leverage (Debt/Equity: 7.81) further undermine confidence in the current price level.
Key Strengths
High dividend yield of 15.62% offers strong income potential if sustainable
Price/Book ratio of 0.97 suggests shares trade near book value, potentially defensive in downturns
Recent 1-year price return of +18.2% outperforms sector average revenue growth
Revenue growth of 126.10% YoY is exceptionally strong, indicating top-line momentum
Analyst recommendation consensus is 'buy' with a target price ($18.62) slightly above current market price
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health; below the 7+ threshold for strength
Extremely high payout ratio (1515.79%) makes dividend unsustainable without asset sales or debt financing
Debt/Equity ratio of 7.81 is significantly above sector average (3.56), increasing refinancing and default risk
Earnings have declined YoY by 28.0% and missed estimates in 3 of last 4 quarters, signaling deteriorating fundamentals
Insider selling activity (net bearish) and poor technical trend (10/100) suggest lack of confidence from insiders and traders
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$8.5
-53.7% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
39
Weak
38
52
40
35
28
AI Verdict
High-risk income stock with deteriorating fundamentals and unsustainable payout
Key drivers: Unsustainable dividend payout, High leverage, Declining earnings, Low Piotroski score, Overvalued on P/E despite weak earnings
Confidence
80%
Value
38/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Price/Book of 0.97 is below 1.0, suggesting possible undervaluation on asset basis
Watchpoints
- P/E of 96.63 is extremely high, especially given declining earnings
- Forward P/E of 5.86 appears low but may be misleading due to non-recurring gains or accounting adjustments
- Current price ($18.36) is nearly double the Graham Number ($9.02) and more than triple the intrinsic value ($5.61)
Future
52/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 126.10% YoY is very strong
- Q/Q earnings growth of 141.70% suggests short-term rebound
Watchpoints
- Year-over-Year EPS growth is -28.0%, indicating structural decline
- Forward P/E not supported by historical earnings trajectory
Past
40/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Some past quarters showed strong earnings beats (e.g., +15.5% in Apr 2022)
Watchpoints
- Last 4 quarters have consistently missed estimates (average surprise: -5.63%)
- EPS progression shows a clear downward trend from $2.75 in early 2020 to recent levels near $0.77
- 5-year price return is -28.0%, underperforming both market and sector
Health
35/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.13 indicates minimal short-term liquidity coverage
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Quick ratio of 0.11 is critically low, indicating near-zero liquid assets
- No Altman Z-Score available, increasing uncertainty
- ROA of 0.39% and ROE of 3.75% are extremely low for a leveraged REIT
Dividend
28/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 15.62% is attractive on surface
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 1515.79% is grossly unsustainable
- Dividend strength score of 40/100 confirms high risk
- No visibility on ex-dividend date or consistency in payments
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$18.36
Analyst Target
$18.62
Upside/Downside
+1.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ARR and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
Primary
|
-28.0% | +2.9% | +18.2% | +19.0% | +5.9% | -4.0% |
|
ABR
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
Peer
|
-7.8% | -22.3% | -34.2% | -32.0% | -2.4% | -6.4% |
|
ALEX
Alexander & Baldwin, Inc.
Peer
|
+58.2% | +26.3% | +25.3% | +16.0% | +0.5% | -0.5% |
|
AAT
American Assets Trust, Inc.
Peer
|
-18.7% | -20.1% | -20.4% | -8.6% | -4.6% | 0.0% |
|
ARI
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Peer
|
+49.1% | +20.2% | +23.8% | +5.8% | +2.0% | -2.3% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
96.63
Forward P/E
5.86
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.97
P/S Ratio
17.69
EV/Revenue
147.45
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$2.07B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
55.26%
Operating Margin
92.31%
Gross Margin
100.0%
ROE
3.75%
ROA
0.39%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+126.1%
Earnings Growth
+23.1%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+141.7%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
7.81
High debt
Current Ratio
1.13
Good
Quick Ratio
0.11
Poor
Cash/Share
$13.08
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-11
$N/A
2025-10-22
$0.72
-8.7% surprise
2025-07-23
$0.77
-6.7% surprise
2025-04-23
$0.86
-1.5% surprise
Real Estate Sector Comparison
Comparing ARR against 56 companies in the Real Estate sector
(1 bullish, 10 neutral, 45 bearish)
P/E Ratio
96.63
This Stock
vs
48.41
Sector Avg
+99.6%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
3.75%
This Stock
vs
-75.16%
Sector Avg
-105.0%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
55.26%
This Stock
vs
26.54%
Sector Avg
+108.2%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
7.81
This Stock
vs
3.27
Sector Avg
+138.7%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
126.1%
This Stock
vs
1831.41%
Sector Avg
-93.1%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.13
This Stock
vs
8.08
Sector Avg
-86.0%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ARR
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.07B | 96.63 | 3.7% | 55.3% | $18.36 | |
|
ABR
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.64B | 10.05 | 6.6% | 35.1% | $7.74 | |
|
ALEX
Alexander & Baldwin, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.51B | 20.54 | 7.3% | 32.4% | $20.75 | |
|
AAT
American Assets Trust, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $1.39B | 17.8 | 7.0% | 14.1% | $17.98 | |
|
ARI
Apollo Commercial Real...
|
BEARISH | $1.38B | 11.4 | 7.4% | 51.3% | $9.92 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | HAIN ROBERT CAMERON | Director | Sale | 6,833 | $123,435 |
| 2026-01-02 | DOWNEY CAROLYN | Director | Stock Award | 932 | $16,487 |
| 2026-01-02 | PAPERIN STEWART J | Director | Stock Award | 932 | $16,487 |
| 2025-11-21 | PAPERIN STEWART J | Director | Stock Award | 540 | - |
| 2025-11-21 | HOLLIHAN JOHN P III | Director | Stock Award | 540 | - |
| 2025-11-21 | BELL MARC H | Director | Stock Award | 1,040 | - |
| 2025-11-21 | BEHAR Z JAMIE | Director | Stock Award | 540 | - |
| 2025-11-21 | STATON DANIEL C | Chairman of the Board | Stock Award | 1,040 | - |
| 2025-11-21 | HARPER GORDON M | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 4,000 | - |
| 2025-11-21 | LOSYEV SERGEY | Chief Investment Officer | Stock Award | 1,500 | - |
| 2025-11-21 | MACAULEY DESMOND | Chief Investment Officer | Stock Award | 1,500 | - |
| 2025-11-21 | HAIN ROBERT CAMERON | Director | Stock Award | 540 | - |
| 2025-11-21 | ULM SCOTT J | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 3,380 | - |
| 2025-11-21 | DOWNEY CAROLYN | Director | Stock Award | 540 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | DOWNEY CAROLYN | Director | Stock Award | 1,104 | $16,494 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
4 analysts
Jones Trading
2026-01-16
Hold
Buy
Compass Point
2025-12-15
Buy
UBS
2025-09-03
Neutral
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ARR from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.