ATO Atmos Energy Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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ATO Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Utilities
Utilities - Regulated Gas
Current Price
Live
$165.34
Analyst Target
$177.54
+7.4%
Upside
52W High
$180.65
52W Low
$138.9
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$26.74B
P/E
22.16
ROE
9.3%
Profit margin
25.5%
Debt/Equity
0.69
Dividend yield
2.42%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
ATO exhibits a mixed financial profile with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating stable but not strong financial health, and no available Altman Z-Score limits distress risk assessment. The stock trades above its Graham Number of $118.68 at $165.34, reflecting a premium valuation, though below the growth-based intrinsic value of $220.07. Strong profitability metrics like a 25.49% profit margin and 30.70% operating margin contrast with weak liquidity (Current Ratio: 0.77) and bearish technical trend. Analysts consensus is 'hold' with a target price of $177.55, implying modest upside, while insider activity shows slight selling pressure.
Key Strengths
High profitability with 25.49% profit margin and 30.70% operating margin, well above sector average of 13.47%
Strong year-over-year earnings growth of 28.9% and revenue growth of 12.10%, outpacing peer averages
Defensive dividend profile with a sustainable 46.65% payout ratio and 2.42% yield
Lower-than-peer Debt/Equity ratio of 0.69 versus sector average of 1.80, indicating conservative leverage
Consistent earnings beat record: 3 out of last 4 quarters, with a 5-year average surprise of ~6%
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests borderline financial health, limiting confidence in operational strength
Very weak liquidity with Current Ratio of 0.77 and Quick Ratio of 0.43, below the safe threshold of 1.0
Bearish technical trend (0/100) and recent price weakness: -3.0% over 1 week and -1.8% over 1 month
No Altman Z-Score available, creating uncertainty around financial distress risk
Insider selling activity: 1 sale transaction worth $0.08M with no buys in the last 6 months
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$195.0
+17.9% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
66
Strong
58
76
70
52
74
AI Verdict
Neutral with balanced strengths and risks
Key drivers: Strong profitability and growth metrics, Premium valuation relative to Graham Number, Weak liquidity and technical indicators, Conservative leverage and dividend sustainability, Lack of Altman Z-Score and insider selling
Confidence
75%
Value
58/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 22.16 below sector average of 25.68
- Forward P/E of 18.94 suggests earnings growth expectations
Watchpoints
- Current price ($165.34) significantly above Graham Number ($118.68)
- High P/S of 5.69 with no EV/EBITDA for comparison
Future
76/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- YoY earnings growth of 28.9% and revenue growth of 12.10%
- Q/Q earnings growth of 30.50% indicates strong near-term momentum
Watchpoints
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth declined by -7.8%, signaling potential near-term volatility
Past
70/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-year price return of +107.3%, outperforming most peers
- Consistent earnings beats over 25 quarters with positive surprises in 18 of them
Watchpoints
- Recent 1-month and 1-week price declines suggest weakening momentum
Health
52/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 0.69 is well below sector average of 1.80
- ROE of 9.32% and ROA of 3.71% are positive but not exceptional
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates only stable financial health
- Current Ratio (0.77) and Quick Ratio (0.43) are critically low
Dividend
74/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.42% is attractive for a regulated utility
- Payout ratio of 46.65% is sustainable and leaves room for growth
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength score of 50/100 suggests only moderate reliability
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$165.34
Analyst Target
$177.54
Upside/Downside
+7.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ATO and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ATO
Atmos Energy Corporation
Primary
|
+107.3% | +55.1% | +21.1% | +6.6% | -1.8% | -3.0% |
|
AEE
Ameren Corporation
Peer
|
+57.8% | +30.0% | +12.9% | +3.7% | +2.5% | -1.6% |
|
AWK
American Water Works Company, Inc.
Peer
|
-11.2% | -10.3% | +9.1% | -6.4% | -1.2% | -2.7% |
|
AXIA
AXIA Energia SA
Peer
|
+160.2% | +45.8% | +90.8% | +60.8% | +13.7% | +8.9% |
|
AES
The AES Corporation
Peer
|
-34.7% | -39.8% | +31.2% | +6.0% | +2.1% | +0.4% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
22.16
Forward P/E
18.94
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.97
P/S Ratio
5.69
EV/Revenue
7.62
EV/EBITDA
15.43
Market Cap
$26.74B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
25.49%
Operating Margin
30.7%
Gross Margin
58.13%
ROE
9.32%
ROA
3.71%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+12.1%
Earnings Growth
+25.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+30.5%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.69
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.77
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.43
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.25
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-03
$N/A
2025-11-06
$1.07
+6.8% surprise
2025-08-06
$1.16
+1.2% surprise
2025-05-07
$3.03
+5.3% surprise
Utilities Sector Comparison
Comparing ATO against 21 companies in the Utilities sector
(0 bullish, 18 neutral, 3 bearish)
P/E Ratio
22.16
This Stock
vs
24.33
Sector Avg
-8.9%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
9.32%
This Stock
vs
-7.2%
Sector Avg
-229.6%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
25.49%
This Stock
vs
10.62%
Sector Avg
+140.1%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.69
This Stock
vs
1.76
Sector Avg
-61.0%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
12.1%
This Stock
vs
6.94%
Sector Avg
+74.4%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
0.77
This Stock
vs
0.88
Sector Avg
-11.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ATO
Atmos Energy Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $26.74B | 22.16 | 9.3% | 25.5% | $165.34 | |
|
AEE
Ameren Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $27.68B | 19.79 | 11.4% | 16.3% | $102.32 | |
|
AWK
American Water Works Company, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $25.32B | 23.08 | 10.5% | 21.9% | $129.71 | |
|
AXIA
AXIA Energia SA
|
BEARISH | $23.18B | - | -5.2% | -14.1% | $10.31 | |
|
AES
The AES Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $10.15B | 9.63 | 5.1% | 8.7% | $14.25 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-02 | PULLIAM JESSICA BATEMAN | General Counsel | Option Exercise | 2,500 | $420,575 |
| 2026-01-02 | GARZA RAFAEL G | Director | Stock Award | 66 | $11,103 |
| 2025-12-16 | COMPTON KELLY H. | Director | Gift | 442 | $74,769 |
| 2025-12-10 | ROBBINS JOHN MATT | Officer | Gift | 1,500 | $250,200 |
| 2025-12-03 | DONOHUE SEAN | Director | Sale | 450 | $77,018 |
| 2025-11-04 | FORSYTHE CHRISTOPHER T | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 7,610 | $1,316,226 |
| 2025-11-04 | ROBBINS JOHN MATT | Officer | Option Exercise | 5,396 | $933,292 |
| 2025-11-04 | AKERS JOHN K | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 32,297 | $5,586,089 |
| 2025-11-04 | HARTSFIELD KAREN E | Officer | Option Exercise | 5,396 | $933,292 |
| 2025-11-04 | MCDILL JOHN S. | Officer | Option Exercise | 5,396 | $933,292 |
| 2025-11-04 | FAULK MICHELLE | Officer | Option Exercise | 336 | $58,115 |
| 2025-10-01 | GARZA RAFAEL G | Director | Stock Award | 66 | $11,228 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
11 analysts
Barclays
2026-01-15
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Citigroup
2026-01-13
Neutral
Neutral
UBS
2025-12-17
Neutral
Neutral
Morgan Stanley
2025-12-16
Overweight
Equal-Weight
Mizuho
2025-12-02
Neutral
Neutral
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-22
Overweight
Overweight
B of A Securities
2025-10-16
Buy
Neutral
Mizuho
2025-09-26
Neutral
Neutral
Morgan Stanley
2025-09-25
Overweight
Overweight
Ladenburg Thalmann
2025-08-08
Buy
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ATO from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.