BBDC
BEARISH
$9.15
Live
Barings BDC, Inc. · NYSE
Target $9.7
(+6.0%)
$7.66
52W Range
$10.85
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$962.2M
P/E
9.63
ROE
8.6%
Profit margin
36.0%
Debt/Equity
1.39
Dividend yield
11.27%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
78%
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals significant concerns, with a Piotroski F-Score of just 2/9 indicating weak financial health. Despite a high dividend yield of 11.27%, the unsustainable 108.33% payout ratio and bearish insider activity raise red flags. While profitability metrics like operating margin and ROE are strong relative to peers, elevated debt (D/E of 1.39) and deteriorating earnings momentum in recent quarters undermine confidence. The stock trades below intrinsic value estimates ($17.34) and slightly above the Graham Number ($15.40), but structural risks outweigh valuation appeal.
Key Strengths
High operating margin (77.98%) suggests strong cost control and pricing power
Attractive dividend yield of 11.27% offers income appeal in a low-growth environment
Price/Book of 0.82 indicates the stock trades below book value, signaling potential undervaluation
ROE of 8.60% exceeds sector average of -11.99%, reflecting better capital efficiency than peers
P/E ratio of 9.63 is significantly below sector average of 21.15, suggesting relative value
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signals severe financial distress and poor fundamental health
Dividend payout ratio of 108.33% is unsustainable and likely to lead to a cut or suspension
Debt/Equity ratio of 1.39 is high, increasing vulnerability to rising interest rates or credit tightening
Insider selling activity over the past 6 months reflects lack of confidence from management
Earnings surprise trend has weakened, with 3 of the last 4 quarters missing or barely meeting estimates
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$14.5
+58.5% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
46
Moderate
72
44
50
28
38
AI Verdict
High-risk, income-focused investment with deteriorating fundamentals
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score, Unsustainable dividend, Strong margins but weakening earnings momentum, Bearish insider activity, Below-average valuation multiples
Confidence
80%
Value
72/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 9.63 well below sector average (21.15)
- Price/Book of 0.82 suggests asset-backed support
- Current price ($9.15) below Graham Number ($15.40) and intrinsic value ($17.34)
Watchpoints
- EV/EBITDA and PEG unavailable due to inconsistent earnings or capital structure complexity
Future
44/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Earnings growth (YoY) of 7.50% and Q/Q EPS growth of 14.3% show some momentum
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth (2.20% YoY) is minimal
- Forward P/E of 9.37 implies no significant earnings acceleration priced in
- PEG ratio unavailable due to lack of growth/earnings consistency
Past
50/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-Year price return of +71.2% outperforms many peers
- History of mixed but occasionally strong earnings surprises (e.g., +33.3% in Q3 2024)
Watchpoints
- Earnings beat rate of only 2/4 in last 4 quarters
- Declining trend in earnings estimates and actuals since 2023 peak
Health
28/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Current ratio of 1.57 and quick ratio of 1.16 indicate short-term liquidity adequacy
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates widespread financial weakness
- Altman Z-Score unavailable, increasing uncertainty around bankruptcy risk
- Debt/Equity of 1.39 is elevated for a BDC with limited earnings growth
Dividend
38/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 11.27% is high and attractive in current rate environment
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 108.33% exceeds earnings, indicating dividend is being funded by debt or asset sales
- Dividend Strength score of 40/100 reflects high risk of cut
- No visible dividend growth history or consistency
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$9.15
Analyst Target
$9.7
Upside/Downside
+6.0%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for BBDC and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BBDC
Barings BDC, Inc.
Primary
|
+71.2% | +50.1% | +5.0% | +1.6% | +3.4% | -0.8% |
|
ABTC
American Bitcoin Corp
Peer
|
-100.0% | -98.8% | +7.2% | -86.8% | -9.6% | -4.6% |
|
AMTB
Amerant Bancorp Inc.
Peer
|
+35.7% | +32.5% | +37.3% | +31.1% | +5.5% | -4.2% |
|
BHRB
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.
Peer
|
+55.6% | -8.1% | +30.8% | +7.6% | +4.5% | -0.9% |
|
BCX
Blackrock Resources & Commodities Strategy Trust
Peer
|
+111.1% | +48.6% | +46.8% | +32.6% | +13.7% | +5.3% |
BBD
Barings BDC, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+71.2%
3Y
+50.1%
1Y
+5.0%
6M
+1.6%
1M
+3.4%
1W
-0.8%
ABT
American Bitcoin Corp
Peer
5Y
-100.0%
3Y
-98.8%
1Y
+7.2%
6M
-86.8%
1M
-9.6%
1W
-4.6%
AMT
Amerant Bancorp Inc.
Peer
5Y
+35.7%
3Y
+32.5%
1Y
+37.3%
6M
+31.1%
1M
+5.5%
1W
-4.2%
BHR
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.
Peer
5Y
+55.6%
3Y
-8.1%
1Y
+30.8%
6M
+7.6%
1M
+4.5%
1W
-0.9%
BCX
Blackrock Resources & Commodities Strategy Trust
Peer
5Y
+111.1%
3Y
+48.6%
1Y
+46.8%
6M
+32.6%
1M
+13.7%
1W
+5.3%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
9.63
Forward P/E
9.38
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.82
P/S Ratio
3.41
EV/Revenue
8.91
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$962.2M
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
36.02%
Operating Margin
77.98%
Gross Margin
100.0%
ROE
8.6%
ROA
4.81%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+2.2%
Earnings Growth
+7.5%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+6.9%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.39
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.57
Good
Quick Ratio
1.16
Good
Cash/Share
$0.67
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-19
$N/A
2025-11-06
$0.32
+16.8% surprise
2025-08-07
$0.28
+8.5% surprise
2025-05-08
$0.25
-9.4% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing BBDC against 820 companies in the Financial Services sector
(141 bullish, 351 neutral, 328 bearish)
P/E Ratio
9.63
This Stock
vs
36.01
Sector Avg
-73.3%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
8.6%
This Stock
vs
-0.73%
Sector Avg
-1273.4%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
36.02%
This Stock
vs
91.62%
Sector Avg
-60.7%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.39
This Stock
vs
1.36
Sector Avg
+2.2%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
2.2%
This Stock
vs
35.27%
Sector Avg
-93.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.57
This Stock
vs
3.18
Sector Avg
-50.7%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BBDC
Barings BDC, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $962.2M | 9.63 | 8.6% | 36.0% | $9.15 | |
|
ABTC
American Bitcoin Corp
|
BEARISH | $964.71M | - | -19.3% | -82.7% | $1.04 | Compare |
|
AMTB
Amerant Bancorp Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $958.36M | 16.07 | 6.4% | 14.6% | $22.82 | Compare |
|
BHRB
Burke & Herbert Financial...
|
NEUTRAL | $970.01M | 8.35 | 14.8% | 34.7% | $64.5 | Compare |
|
BCX
Blackrock Resources &...
|
BEARISH | $972.72M | 23.04 | -% | -% | $12.44 | Compare |
BBDC
Barings BDC, Inc.
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$962M
P/E
9.6
ROE
8.6%
Price
$9.15
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | BYERS STEPHEN ROBERT | Director | Purchase | 6,761 | $60,644 |
| 2025-12-09 | BYERS STEPHEN ROBERT | Director | Sale | 5,671 | $50,926 |
BYERS STEPHEN ROBERT
Director
2025-12-09
6,761 shares
·
$60,644
BYERS STEPHEN ROBERT
Director
2025-12-09
5,671 shares
·
$50,926
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
5 analysts
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2025-11-10
Market Perform
Market Perform
Wells Fargo
2025-11-10
Overweight
Overweight
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning BBDC from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.