BFH Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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BFH Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Financial Services
Credit Services
Current Price
Live
$68.78
Analyst Target
$80.07
+16.4%
Upside
52W High
$82.03
52W Low
$38.21
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$3.14B
P/E
7.19
ROE
14.8%
Profit margin
18.8%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
1.3%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
BFH exhibits a mixed financial profile with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating marginal financial health, and no available Altman Z-Score limits distress risk assessment. The stock appears undervalued with a P/E of 7.19 versus sector average of 21.34 and trades below both the Graham Number ($124.61) and intrinsic value estimate ($282.31), suggesting significant upside potential. Strong earnings growth (YoY EPS +118.5%, Earnings Growth YoY 9703.90%) and consistent analyst target support ($80.07) contrast with deteriorating technical trend (0/100) and lack of insider activity. Key risks include incomplete financial data (missing debt, cash, EV metrics), volatile earnings surprises, and declining short-term price momentum.
Key Strengths
Significantly lower valuation multiples (P/E 7.19) compared to sector average (21.34), indicating potential undervaluation
Exceptional year-over-year earnings growth (9703.90%) and strong recent EPS progression, signaling robust profitability rebound
Attractive dividend payout ratio of 8.50%, providing sustainability and room for future increases despite low yield
High ROE of 14.78% in a sector with negative average ROE (-10.81%), demonstrating superior capital efficiency
Analyst target price of $80.07 implies ~16.4% upside from current levels, with consensus 'hold' suggesting stability
Key Risks
Low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak operating performance and financial stability concerns
Missing Altman Z-Score and key leverage metrics (Debt/Equity, Total Debt) create uncertainty around financial distress risk
Technical trend score of 0/100 signals strong bearish momentum, with recent 1-month (-10.3%) and 1-week (-6.7%) declines
Extreme volatility in earnings surprises (e.g., +2722.2% in 2023-Q2 to -80.5% in 2020-Q2) raises predictability concerns
Incomplete data (missing EV, cash, debt, ROIC, current ratio) limits comprehensive financial health assessment
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$124.61
+81.2% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
65
Strong
82
78
60
48
55
AI Verdict
Neutral with value potential offset by health and technical concerns
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score, Undemanding valuation multiples, Exceptional earnings growth, Bearish technical trend, Missing financial health data
Confidence
75%
Value
82/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 7.19 well below sector average of 21.34
- Price/Sales of 1.25 below sector average implied premium
- Current price ($68.78) significantly below Graham Number ($124.61)
Watchpoints
- PEG Ratio unavailable limits growth-adjusted valuation
- Forward P/E (7.22) shows minimal expansion, suggesting limited near-term re-rating
Future
78/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- YoY Earnings Growth of 9703.90% indicates dramatic improvement
- Q/Q Earnings Growth of 9300.00% shows sustained momentum
- Most Recent Q/Q EPS Growth of +28.0% and YoY EPS Growth of +118.5% confirm acceleration
Watchpoints
- Revenue Growth (9.40% YoY) lags sector average of 38.65%
- Gross Margin at 0.00% raises sustainability questions despite high operating margin
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates
- Long-term 5Y return of +35.8% outperforms many peers
- History of large earnings surprises (average +57.55% over last 4)
Watchpoints
- Erratic earnings performance with multiple large negative surprises
- 1Y price return of +7.7% underperforms sector momentum
Health
48/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- ROE of 14.78% exceeds sector average significantly
- Profit margin of 18.77% indicates pricing power or cost control
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- No Altman Z-Score available increases risk uncertainty
- Missing Debt/Equity, Current Ratio, and Total Debt limits liquidity and leverage analysis
Dividend
55/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Low payout ratio of 8.50% ensures dividend sustainability
- Dividend Strength score of 25/100 suggests room for future growth
Watchpoints
- Dividend yield of 1.30% is below average income stock
- No 5-year average yield data limits trend analysis
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$68.78
Analyst Target
$80.07
Upside/Downside
+16.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for BFH and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BFH
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.
Primary
|
+35.8% | +79.6% | +7.7% | +9.5% | -10.3% | -6.7% |
|
BANC
Banc of California, Inc.
Peer
|
+24.0% | +31.3% | +30.2% | +33.3% | +1.3% | -4.2% |
|
APAM
Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc.
Peer
|
+22.7% | +53.3% | +5.4% | -4.3% | +3.2% | -2.8% |
|
ARX
Accelerant Holdings
Peer
|
-44.0% | -44.0% | -44.0% | -50.1% | -11.9% | -1.3% |
|
AHL
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limite
Peer
|
+14.7% | +14.7% | +14.7% | +16.8% | +0.6% | -0.1% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
7.19
Forward P/E
7.22
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.95
P/S Ratio
1.25
EV/Revenue
1.26
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$3.14B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
18.77%
Operating Margin
29.61%
Gross Margin
N/A
ROE
14.78%
ROA
2.19%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+9.4%
Earnings Growth
+9703.9%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+9300.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Cash/Share
$82.43
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-01-29
$N/A
2025-10-23
$4.02
+90.3% surprise
2025-07-24
$3.14
+61.7% surprise
2025-04-24
$2.78
+20.6% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing BFH against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(5 bullish, 111 neutral, 92 bearish)
P/E Ratio
7.19
This Stock
vs
30.37
Sector Avg
-76.3%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
14.78%
This Stock
vs
-7.62%
Sector Avg
-293.9%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
18.77%
This Stock
vs
82.75%
Sector Avg
-77.3%
(Weaker)
Revenue Growth
9.4%
This Stock
vs
28.35%
Sector Avg
-66.8%
(Slower)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BFH
Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $3.14B | 7.19 | 14.8% | 18.8% | $68.78 | |
|
BANC
Banc of California, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $3.1B | 17.79 | 6.0% | 20.4% | $19.92 | |
|
APAM
Artisan Partners Asset...
|
NEUTRAL | $3.04B | 11.61 | 49.6% | 22.9% | $43.09 | |
|
ARX
Accelerant Holdings
|
BEARISH | $3.29B | - | -280.1% | -182.9% | $14.85 | |
|
AHL
Aspen Insurance Holdings Limite
|
BEARISH | $3.42B | 5.48 | 14.0% | 14.2% | $37.26 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | GERSPACH JOHN C | Director | Stock Award | 499 | - |
| 2025-10-15 | GERSPACH JOHN C | Director | Stock Award | 670 | - |
| 2025-07-30 | FAWCETT JOHN J | Director | Purchase | 1,027 | $63,459 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
15 analysts
Morgan Stanley
2026-01-20
Underweight
Underweight
TD Cowen
2026-01-08
Hold
Hold
UBS
2026-01-08
Buy
Barclays
2026-01-06
Underweight
Underweight
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-01-02
Outperform
Outperform
JP Morgan
2025-12-04
Neutral
Underweight
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-30
In-Line
In-Line
Goldman Sachs
2025-10-24
Sell
Sell
TD Cowen
2025-10-24
Hold
Hold
RBC Capital
2025-10-24
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning BFH from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.