BHP BHP Group Limited - Fundamental Analysis
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BHP Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Basic Materials
Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Current Price
Live
$67.52
Analyst Target
$57.0
-15.6%
Downside
52W High
$67.56
52W Low
$39.73
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$173.45B
P/E
19.07
ROE
22.0%
Profit margin
17.6%
Debt/Equity
0.49
Dividend yield
3.26%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
BHP's Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates stable financial health, but the absence of an Altman Z-Score limits distress risk assessment. The stock trades significantly above its Graham Number of $27.35 and intrinsic value of $24.78, reflecting a substantial premium. Despite strong profitability metrics like 37.7% operating margin and 21.99% ROE, earnings and revenue growth are sharply negative year-over-year. Analysts consensus is a hold with a $57.00 target, below current price, suggesting limited upside.
Key Strengths
High operating margin of 37.70% indicates strong cost control and pricing power
ROE of 21.99% exceeds sector average significantly, signaling efficient equity use
Debt/Equity of 0.49 is below sector average of 0.63, indicating conservative leverage
Dividend yield of 3.26% is attractive relative to sector peers
Current ratio of 1.46 and quick ratio of 1.06 suggest adequate short-term liquidity
Key Risks
Revenue growth down 8.20% YoY and earnings down 34.00%, indicating deteriorating fundamentals
P/E of 19.07 is high relative to earnings contraction, increasing valuation risk
Price/Book of 7.19 is extremely elevated, suggesting overvaluation relative to book value
Technical trend score of 10/100 signals strong bearish momentum near 52-week high
Only 1 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates with average surprise of -37.42%, indicating poor earnings reliability
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$57.0
-15.6% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
55
Moderate
42
38
64
70
60
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside risks due to valuation and earnings volatility
Key drivers: Stable Piotroski score, Strong profitability, Rich valuation, Negative growth trends, Bearish technicals
Confidence
75%
Value
42/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 15.45 is lower than current P/E, suggesting earnings recovery priced in
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 19.07 is high for a declining earnings environment
- Price/Book of 7.19 is excessive
- Stock trades at 2.47x Graham Number, indicating deep overvaluation
Future
38/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth of +229.2% shows potential rebound
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth down 8.20% YoY
- Earnings down 34.00% YoY
- PEG Ratio unavailable due to unreliable growth expectations
Past
64/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-year price return of +47.6% outperforms sector average
- Historical ROE consistently strong
Watchpoints
- Erratic earnings surprises over last 14 quarters
- Only 1 beat in last 4 quarters
Health
70/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates stable financial condition
- Debt/Equity of 0.49 is manageable
- Current and quick ratios indicate short-term solvency
Watchpoints
- Altman Z-Score not available, creating blind spot for bankruptcy risk
Dividend
60/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 3.26% is attractive in current rate environment
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 69.90% is high, limiting flexibility
- Dividend strength score of 50/100 suggests moderate reliability
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$67.52
Analyst Target
$57.0
Upside/Downside
-15.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for BHP and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BHP
BHP Group Limited
Primary
|
+47.6% | +10.2% | +39.2% | +27.0% | +10.9% | +4.1% |
|
LIN
Linde plc
Peer
|
+81.6% | +38.3% | +2.9% | -5.0% | +3.9% | -1.1% |
|
NEM
Newmont Corporation
Peer
|
+116.1% | +135.9% | +178.6% | +97.3% | +14.8% | +4.7% |
|
AEM
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited
Peer
|
+242.0% | +301.0% | +145.0% | +70.0% | +18.3% | +8.6% |
|
SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company
Peer
|
+54.7% | +48.4% | +1.9% | +5.7% | +9.1% | +1.3% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
19.07
Forward P/E
15.45
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
7.19
P/S Ratio
3.38
EV/Revenue
7.04
EV/EBITDA
15.39
Market Cap
$173.45B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
17.59%
Operating Margin
37.7%
Gross Margin
82.21%
ROE
21.99%
ROA
11.02%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-8.2%
Earnings Growth
-34.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-34.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.49
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.46
Good
Quick Ratio
1.06
Good
Cash/Share
$2.35
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-16
$N/A
2012-02-07
$0.79
-76.1% surprise
2004-08-18
$0.24
-44.2% surprise
2004-04-22
$0.27
+8.0% surprise
Basic Materials Sector Comparison
Comparing BHP against 41 companies in the Basic Materials sector
(1 bullish, 21 neutral, 19 bearish)
P/E Ratio
19.07
This Stock
vs
30.38
Sector Avg
-37.2%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
21.99%
This Stock
vs
0.39%
Sector Avg
+5472.6%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
17.59%
This Stock
vs
-2.52%
Sector Avg
-797.2%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.49
This Stock
vs
0.61
Sector Avg
-19.2%
(Lower)
Revenue Growth
-8.2%
This Stock
vs
14.81%
Sector Avg
-155.4%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.46
This Stock
vs
2.28
Sector Avg
-35.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BHP
BHP Group Limited
|
NEUTRAL | $173.45B | 19.07 | 22.0% | 17.6% | $67.52 | |
|
LIN
Linde plc
|
NEUTRAL | $205.83B | 29.34 | 18.0% | 21.2% | $438.96 | |
|
NEM
Newmont Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $125.36B | 17.75 | 22.9% | 33.4% | $114.12 | |
|
AEM
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited
|
NEUTRAL | $107.71B | 31.23 | 15.7% | 32.6% | $214.54 | |
|
SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company
|
NEUTRAL | $89.22B | 34.88 | 59.9% | 11.0% | $357.83 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
6 analysts
Argus Research
2025-12-30
Hold
Buy
Citigroup
2025-08-20
Buy
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning BHP from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.