BMA Banco Macro S.A. - Fundamental Analysis
BEARISH
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BMA Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Financial Services
Banks - Regional
Current Price
Live
$96.63
Analyst Target
$112.81
+16.7%
Upside
52W High
$104.0
52W Low
$38.3
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 24, 2026
Market cap
$6.81B
P/E
38.35
ROE
5.5%
Profit margin
8.6%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
2.55%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
78%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of just 2/9, indicating significant operational and profitability concerns. Despite a bullish analyst recommendation and strong long-term price appreciation, the company faces deteriorating fundamentals, including negative operating margins, a steep decline in year-over-year revenue and earnings, and extremely stretched valuation metrics. The stock trades at a massive premium to both the Graham Number ($17.18) and intrinsic value estimate ($17.64), with a current price of $96.63, suggesting substantial overvaluation. While dividend yield and recent technical rebound offer some support, the underlying financial deterioration and lack of transparency in key leverage and liquidity metrics amplify downside risk.
Key Strengths
Analyst consensus supports a 'buy' rating with a high target price of $112.81, implying 16.7% upside.
Recent technical performance shows strong recovery: +34.8% over 6 months and +6.2% in the last month.
Dividend yield of 2.55% is supported by a reasonable payout ratio of 42.03%.
Long-term price appreciation has been exceptional: +868.3% over 5 years.
Profit margin of 8.58% remains positive despite sector-wide challenges.
Key Risks
Critically low Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signals weak financial health, particularly in profitability and leverage trends.
Operating margin is deeply negative at -4.96%, indicating core business unprofitability.
Revenue growth has collapsed YoY by -28.70%, reflecting severe top-line contraction.
Current P/E of 38.35 is extremely high compared to forward P/E of 9.81, suggesting earnings recovery is priced in prematurely.
Extreme valuation disconnect: stock trades at 5.6x the Graham Number and 5.5x intrinsic value, with no Altman Z-Score to offset risk.
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$17.5
-81.9% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
34
Weak
18
25
40
20
65
AI Verdict
High-risk, overvalued financial with deteriorating fundamentals despite bullish price action.
Key drivers: Low Piotroski F-Score, Negative operating margin, Massive valuation premium, Collapse in revenue and earnings growth, Lack of transparency in debt and liquidity metrics
Confidence
80%
Value
18/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 9.81 suggests potential earnings recovery
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 38.35 is extremely high
- Price/Book of 18.56 is exceptionally elevated for a bank
- Stock trades at 5.6x Graham Number
- No PEG ratio due to negative growth
Future
25/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Forward P/E implies improving earnings expectations
- Analyst target suggests confidence in recovery
Watchpoints
- YoY EPS growth of -137.5% and Q/Q EPS growth of -120.8%
- Revenue growth down -28.70% YoY
- No visibility on earnings growth due to volatility
Past
40/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-year price return of +868.3% shows strong historical performance
- Mixed but occasionally strong earnings surprises (e.g., +139.2% in 2019)
Watchpoints
- Earnings volatility is extreme, with multiple large negative surprises
- Recent quarters show deteriorating accuracy and declining actual results
- Long-term consistency is absent
Health
20/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- ROE of 5.47% remains positive, though low
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates severe financial weakness
- Operating margin of -4.96% shows core operations are unprofitable
- No Altman Z-Score available to assess bankruptcy risk
- No data on debt/equity, current ratio, or cash/debt levels
Dividend
65/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.55% is attractive in current market
- Payout ratio of 42.03% is sustainable based on earnings
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score is only 50/100
- No 5-year average yield data to assess consistency
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$96.63
Analyst Target
$112.81
Upside/Downside
+16.7%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for BMA and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-23
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BMA
Banco Macro S.A.
Primary
|
+868.3% | +446.6% | -7.7% | +34.8% | +6.2% | +4.3% |
|
ACT
Enact Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+145.2% | +101.6% | +25.8% | +5.2% | -6.5% | -2.3% |
|
AXS
AXIS Capital Holdings Limited
Peer
|
+139.7% | +87.3% | +17.7% | +5.2% | -6.3% | +2.1% |
|
AVAL
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.
Peer
|
-3.3% | +123.2% | +108.0% | +59.6% | +9.6% | +8.1% |
|
AUB
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation
Peer
|
+28.3% | +15.2% | +10.9% | +20.1% | +6.3% | +1.4% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
38.35
Forward P/E
9.81
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
18.56
P/S Ratio
0.0
EV/Revenue
-0.11
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$6.81B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
8.58%
Operating Margin
-4.96%
Gross Margin
N/A
ROE
5.47%
ROA
1.32%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-28.7%
Earnings Growth
N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
N/A
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
N/A
Quick Ratio
N/A
Cash/Share
$3131.68
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-25
$N/A
2025-11-26
$-551.46
-136.3% surprise
2025-08-27
$2653.17
+78.4% surprise
2025-05-29
$756.15
+58.5% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing BMA against 208 companies in the Financial Services sector
(5 bullish, 111 neutral, 92 bearish)
P/E Ratio
38.35
This Stock
vs
30.37
Sector Avg
+26.3%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
5.47%
This Stock
vs
-7.62%
Sector Avg
-171.8%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
8.58%
This Stock
vs
82.75%
Sector Avg
-89.6%
(Weaker)
Revenue Growth
-28.7%
This Stock
vs
28.35%
Sector Avg
-201.2%
(Slower)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
BMA
Banco Macro S.A.
|
BEARISH | $6.81B | 38.35 | 5.5% | 8.6% | $96.63 | |
|
ACT
Enact Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $5.85B | 8.96 | 13.0% | 54.6% | $40.49 | |
|
AXS
AXIS Capital Holdings Limited
|
NEUTRAL | $7.98B | 8.53 | 16.3% | 16.1% | $102.07 | |
|
AVAL
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.
|
BEARISH | $5.58B | 12.65 | 9.2% | 12.3% | $4.68 | |
|
AUB
Atlantic Union Bankshares...
|
NEUTRAL | $5.54B | 19.53 | 6.7% | 22.2% | $38.87 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
9 analysts
UBS
2025-11-19
Buy
Citigroup
2025-11-03
Neutral
Buy
JP Morgan
2025-10-28
Overweight
Overweight
JP Morgan
2025-10-22
Neutral
Overweight
HSBC
2025-10-01
Hold
Buy
Citigroup
2025-09-11
Buy
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning BMA from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.