COF Capital One Financial Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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COF Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Financial Services
Credit Services
Current Price
Live
$239.14
Analyst Target
$280.48
+17.3%
Upside
52W High
$259.64
52W Low
$143.22
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
68%
Analysis Accuracy
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating borderline stability, and a missing Altman Z-Score prevents a full distress risk assessment. Despite strong recent earnings surprises and robust revenue growth (67.9% YoY), the stock trades at a steep valuation (P/E of 82.18 vs. sector avg 24.39) far above its Graham Number of $105.66 and intrinsic value of $61.84, suggesting significant premium pricing. Profitability metrics like ROE (1.62%) and ROA (0.25%) lag far behind sector averages, while insider selling activity totaling $69.91M over the past six months signals caution. Analysts maintain a 'buy' recommendation with a $280.48 target price, implying 17% upside, but this optimism appears to hinge on growth continuation rather than current value or balance sheet strength.
Key Strengths
Exceptional recent earnings performance with 3 out of last 4 quarters beating estimates and an average surprise of 31.87%
Explosive year-over-year revenue growth of 67.90%, significantly outpacing the sector average of 21.80%
Strong operating margin of 38.72%, indicating effective cost control and pricing power
High analyst confidence with a $280.48 target price implying substantial upside from current levels
Solid Q/Q earnings growth of 79.60%, suggesting accelerating profitability in the near term
Key Risks
Very low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating weak financial health and limited resilience to economic stress
Extremely high trailing P/E of 82.18 versus forward P/E of 11.52, suggesting earnings expectations are priced for perfection
Current price of $239.14 is 126% above Graham Number ($105.66) and 286% above intrinsic value ($61.84), indicating severe overvaluation by traditional metrics
Deteriorating earnings trend in prior periods with multiple recent quarters missing estimates and negative surprises exceeding -40%
Heavy insider selling activity — 17 sell transactions totaling $69.91M in 6 months with zero buys — signaling lack of confidence from insiders
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$105.66
-55.8% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional AI analysis across 5 key categories
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability, Growth & Financial Health
Detailed profit margins, ROE, debt ratios, and liquidity metrics
Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis
Compare COF against industry averages and similar companies
Insider Trading & Analyst Ratings
Track insider transactions and Wall Street analyst recommendations
Past News Coverage
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