COP ConocoPhillips - Fundamental Analysis
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Key Strengths
Key Risks
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
COP is modestly cheaper than large-cap E&P peers on forward earnings, though not deeply undervalued, with valuation supported by balance sheet strength rather than growth premium
- Forward P/E of 11.38 is below 5Y average and cheaper than many E&P peers (e.g., EOG Resources at ~13.5)
- Price/Book of 1.74 and Price/Sales of 1.84 suggest modest premium justified by asset quality
- Lack of EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue limits ability to assess enterprise-level valuation
- Current price 19% below 52-week high ($115.38) suggests lingering market skepticism
Despite positive revenue trends and a bullish analyst target, deteriorating earnings and lack of short-term price momentum (1Y: -17.1%, 3Y: -25.1%) suggest near-term headwinds outweigh growth optimism
- 14% YoY revenue growth indicates volume or pricing tailwinds in current operations
- Analyst target implies 23.8% upside, suggesting confidence in recovery or stabilization
- Earnings declining while revenues rise points to margin erosion or non-recurring charges
- Q/Q earnings down 16.2% and four straight earnings misses signal weakening operational momentum
While historically profitable and a strong long-term compounder, COP has struggled in recent years with declining earnings performance and repeated misses, undermining its track record
- Long-term 5Y return of +184.6% demonstrates strong capital appreciation during prior energy upcycle
- Consistent profitability with gross margin of 47.41% and operating margin of 19.54%
- Zero earnings beats in last 4 quarters with 0% average surprise, indicating poor execution or guidance issues
- 3Y and 1Y returns of -25.1% and -17.1% reflect underperformance during recent energy volatility
COP’s leverage is among the lowest in the E&P sector, offering a buffer against oil price swings, though incomplete cash flow data prevents full stress-testing of liquidity position vs. peers
- Low Debt/Equity ratio of 0.36 provides significant financial flexibility and resilience in volatile commodity markets
- Current ratio of 1.32 and quick ratio of 1.00 indicate adequate short-term liquidity
- Missing total debt, cash, and free cash flow data limits assessment of refinancing risk and capital allocation runway
- No visibility into cash flow generation, a critical metric for E&P sustainability
The dividend appears well-supported by earnings and leverage profile, offering income appeal in a sector known for capital returns, though lack of growth visibility tempers enthusiasm
- Dividend yield of 3.68% is attractive relative to S&P 500 (~1.5%) and energy sector average (~4.0%)
- Payout ratio of 44.07% indicates strong coverage and room for future increases
- No data on dividend growth history or policy consistency over 5Y
- Earnings decline raises questions about long-term dividend growth sustainability
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for COP and closest competitors.
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
COP
ConocoPhillips
Primary
|
+184.6% | -25.1% | -17.1% | +0.5% | +4.1% | +5.2% |
|
KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
Peer
|
+168.4% | +73.3% | +7.0% | -0.2% | +0.4% | +3.3% |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Peer
|
+464.9% | +77.0% | +29.4% | +23.2% | +8.8% | +3.2% |
|
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
Peer
|
+209.8% | -15.3% | -15.5% | -2.7% | +2.6% | +4.7% |
|
PSX
Phillips 66
Peer
|
+174.0% | +42.8% | +13.8% | +15.4% | +9.8% | +3.2% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
Energy Sector Comparison
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
COP
ConocoPhillips
|
NEUTRAL | $112.91B | 12.91 | 15.4% | 14.4% | $91.37 | |
|
KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $61.0B | 22.48 | 8.9% | 16.6% | $27.42 | |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $60.11B | 21.27 | 18.9% | 2.2% | $199.98 | |
|
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $59.9B | 10.96 | 18.5% | 24.4% | $110.4 | |
|
PSX
Phillips 66
|
NEUTRAL | $57.34B | 38.36 | 5.6% | 1.1% | $142.32 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 | MCRAVEN WILLIAM H. | Director | Purchase | 5,768 | $500,000 |
| 2025-06-16 | JOHNSON KIRK L | Officer | Purchase | 5,300 | $499,472 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets