CSX CSX Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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CSX Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Industrials
Railroads
Current Price
Live
$36.25
Analyst Target
$39.83
+9.9%
Upside
52W High
$37.54
52W Low
$26.22
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 17, 2026
Market cap
$67.58B
P/E
23.54
ROE
22.6%
Profit margin
20.5%
Debt/Equity
1.55
Dividend yield
1.43%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
CSX exhibits mixed financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating stable but not strong fundamentals, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full distress risk assessment. Profitability metrics are robust, including a 20.55% profit margin and 22.59% ROE, yet earnings and revenue are contracting year-over-year. The stock trades at a premium to both Graham's defensive value ($15.41) and intrinsic estimate ($10.78), supported by a forward P/E of 19.30 and strong analyst target of $39.83. However, weakening growth, bearish insider activity, and technical trend weakness temper optimism despite solid cash flow generation and sector-relative valuation stability.
Key Strengths
High profitability with ROE of 22.59% and operating margin of 35.07%, outperforming sector averages
Strong free cash flow generation implied by consistent dividend payments and low payout ratio of 33.12%
Valuation remains below sector average P/E of 32.12 despite premium to Graham Number
Dividend history is stable with sustainable payout ratio under 35%
Analyst consensus supports upside with target price of $39.83 implying ~10% appreciation
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates marginal financial health with recent earnings and revenue declines
YoY earnings down -19.60% and revenue down -0.90%, signaling deteriorating fundamentals
Current ratio of 0.85 and quick ratio of 0.67 suggest potential near-term liquidity pressure
Debt/Equity of 1.55 is high, increasing financial risk especially if interest rates remain elevated
Insider selling activity totaling $2.01M in last 6 months signals lack of confidence from management
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$38.5
+6.2% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
56
Moderate
55
48
60
50
68
AI Verdict
Cautiously optimistic with structural strengths offset by near-term headwinds
Key drivers: High profitability and ROE, Stable dividend policy, Analyst bullishness, Earnings contraction, Bearish insider activity
Confidence
70%
Value
55/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 23.54 below sector average of 32.12
- Forward P/E of 19.30 suggests earnings recovery priced in
Watchpoints
- Current price $36.25 significantly above Graham Number of $15.41
- Intrinsic value estimate of $10.78 implies substantial overvaluation on growth formula
Future
48/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Analyst target implies confidence in recovery
- Forward P/E decline suggests expected earnings improvement
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth YoY at -0.90%
- Earnings growth YoY at -19.60%
- Q/Q EPS growth flat at 0.0%
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historical earnings beats in 14 of last 25 quarters
- Long-term 5Y return of +25.5% outpaces market
- Consistent profitability over time
Watchpoints
- Recent earnings misses in 2 of last 4 quarters
- Declining trend in EPS since 2022 peaks
Health
50/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates stable financial condition
- No Altman Z-Score reported, but no immediate distress signals
Watchpoints
- Piotroski score below 7 indicates weak financial momentum
- Current and quick ratios below 1.0 signal liquidity concerns
Dividend
68/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Sustainable payout ratio of 33.12%
- Dividend Strength score of 40/100 suggests room for growth
Watchpoints
- Yield of 1.43% is below sector average
- No 5-year yield average available, limiting trend analysis
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$36.25
Analyst Target
$39.83
Upside/Downside
+9.9%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for CSX and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-16
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CSX
CSX Corporation
Primary
|
+25.5% | +16.2% | +11.7% | +6.2% | -0.7% | +3.0% |
|
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation
Peer
|
+29.1% | +21.3% | +20.1% | +6.1% | -1.3% | +1.2% |
|
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
Peer
|
+120.4% | +68.9% | +1.2% | -14.9% | -5.1% | +2.0% |
|
CMI
Cummins Inc.
Peer
|
+125.6% | +98.6% | +29.8% | +39.8% | +9.3% | -2.3% |
|
PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
Peer
|
+524.9% | +199.4% | +32.7% | +24.6% | -1.8% | -3.5% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
23.54
Forward P/E
19.3
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
5.29
P/S Ratio
4.79
EV/Revenue
6.14
EV/EBITDA
13.26
Market Cap
$67.58B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
20.55%
Operating Margin
35.07%
Gross Margin
46.29%
ROE
22.59%
ROA
7.01%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
-0.9%
Earnings Growth
-19.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-22.4%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.55
High debt
Current Ratio
0.85
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.67
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.33
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-01-22
$N/A
2025-10-16
$0.44
+3.8% surprise
2025-07-23
$0.44
+5.7% surprise
2025-04-16
$0.34
-7.7% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing CSX against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(6 bullish, 59 neutral, 57 bearish)
P/E Ratio
23.54
This Stock
vs
73.49
Sector Avg
-68.0%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
22.59%
This Stock
vs
7.83%
Sector Avg
+188.4%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
20.55%
This Stock
vs
57.85%
Sector Avg
-64.5%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.55
This Stock
vs
5.46
Sector Avg
-71.6%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-0.9%
This Stock
vs
22.8%
Sector Avg
-103.9%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.85
This Stock
vs
2.64
Sector Avg
-67.9%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
CSX
CSX Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $67.58B | 23.54 | 22.6% | 20.5% | $36.25 | |
|
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $65.21B | 22.17 | 20.5% | 24.2% | $290.63 | |
|
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $64.95B | 31.17 | 18.2% | 12.8% | $209.8 | |
|
CMI
Cummins Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $64.53B | 23.98 | 22.8% | 7.9% | $462.61 | |
|
PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $64.02B | 63.69 | 13.4% | 3.7% | $429.3 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-15 | WHISLER J STEVEN | Director | Stock Award | 1,681 | $62,500 |
| 2025-12-04 | HILAL PAUL C. J.D. | Director | Gift | 10,000 | - |
| 2025-11-14 | KENNEY MARYCLARE T | Officer | Stock Award | 1,296 | - |
| 2025-10-22 | BOONE KEVIN S | Officer | Option Exercise | 31,053 | $551,502 |
| 2025-10-22 | BOONE KEVIN S | Officer | Sale | 31,053 | $1,120,703 |
| 2025-10-20 | BURNS MICHAEL S. | Officer | Option Exercise | 24,249 | $488,063 |
| 2025-10-20 | BURNS MICHAEL S. | Officer | Sale | 24,249 | $891,393 |
| 2025-10-20 | ANGEL STEPHEN F | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 55,000 | $2,027,850 |
| 2025-09-15 | WHISLER J STEVEN | Director | Stock Award | 1,154 | $37,505 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
24 analysts
JP Morgan
2026-01-12
Overweight
Overweight
Morgan Stanley
2025-12-08
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Baird
2025-10-20
Outperform
Outperform
JP Morgan
2025-10-20
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2025-10-20
Overweight
Overweight
Jefferies
2025-10-17
Buy
Buy
Raymond James
2025-10-17
Outperform
Outperform
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-17
Outperform
Outperform
TD Cowen
2025-10-17
Buy
Buy
UBS
2025-10-17
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning CSX from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.