DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
DLTR Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Consumer Defensive
•
Discount Stores
Current Price
$127.7
Analyst Target
$117.78
-7.8% Downside
52W High
$132.48
52W Low
$61.8
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 04, 2026
Market cap
$26.05B
P/E
24.23
ROE
20.1%
Profit margin
-15.4%
Debt/Equity
2.21
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
DLTR's financial health is concerning with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and deteriorating liquidity ratios, though the Altman Z-Score of 57277942041.6 indicates no bankruptcy risk. The stock trades above its Graham Number of $45.24 at $127.70, reflecting premium valuation likely driven by recent strong earnings surprises and revenue growth. Despite solid operating margins and ROE, negative profit margins and high debt/equity raise sustainability concerns. Insider selling and weak technical trend further temper bullishness, while analyst target of $117.78 suggests modest downside.
Key Strengths
Exceptionally high Altman Z-Score indicates virtually no risk of financial distress
Strong revenue growth of 9.4% YoY outpaces sector average of 4.84%
High ROE of 20.07% reflects efficient use of equity despite sector headwinds
Recent earnings surprises average +34.65% over last four quarters, signaling strong execution
Gross margin of 35.94% remains healthy relative to industry peers
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, particularly in profitability and leverage
Negative net profit margin of -15.40% raises concerns about cost control and pricing power
Debt/Equity ratio of 2.21 is above sector average (1.78) and may constrain flexibility
Current Ratio of 0.96 and Quick Ratio of 0.15 indicate potential short-term liquidity pressure
Insider selling activity over last 6 months signals lack of confidence from executives
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$110.5
-13.5% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
47
Moderate
45
70
60
40
20
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside risks
Key drivers: High Altman Z-Score supports stability, Premium valuation offsets strong growth, Weak profitability and insider sentiment cap upside
Confidence
70%
Value
45/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 19.10 below trailing P/E of 24.23 suggests earnings recovery priced in
Watchpoints
- Current price ($127.70) significantly above Graham Number ($45.24)
- P/E of 24.23 above sector average of 25.00 with weaker profitability profile
Future
70/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth of 9.4% and earnings growth of 10.6% exceed sector averages
- Recent Q/Q EPS growth of +57.1% indicates accelerating profitability
Watchpoints
- PEG Ratio unavailable limits growth-adjusted valuation assessment
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 17 out of last 25 quarters beat or met estimates
- History of large positive surprises, including +87.7% in Sep 2025
Watchpoints
- Recent misses in late 2024 (e.g., -35.5% surprise in Sep 2024)
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Altman Z-Score of 57277942041.6 is extremely high, indicating robust balance sheet resilience
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 reflects weak financial health
- Negative net margin and high debt/equity undermine stability
Dividend
20/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength of 0/100 and no dividend yield
- Payout ratio of 0.00% indicates no return to shareholders
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$127.7
Analyst Target
$117.78
Upside/Downside
-7.8%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for DLTR and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-02
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DLTR
Dollar Tree, Inc.
Primary
|
+19.4% | -8.9% | +67.0% | +25.3% | +13.1% | +3.0% |
|
GIS
General Mills, Inc.
Peer
|
-7.9% | -31.6% | -23.4% | -11.9% | -0.7% | +1.1% |
|
DG
Dollar General Corporation
Peer
|
-29.8% | -41.3% | +85.5% | +21.2% | +24.5% | -0.7% |
|
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
Peer
|
-12.5% | -9.4% | -18.0% | -23.8% | -13.3% | +0.2% |
|
HSY
The Hershey Company
Peer
|
+29.8% | -10.8% | +3.5% | +13.9% | -6.5% | +5.0% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
24.23
Forward P/E
19.1
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
7.4
P/S Ratio
1.37
EV/Revenue
1.71
EV/EBITDA
15.17
Market Cap
$26.05B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
-15.4%
Operating Margin
6.73%
Gross Margin
35.94%
ROE
20.07%
ROA
5.11%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+9.4%
Earnings Growth
+10.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+4.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.21
High debt
Current Ratio
0.96
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.15
Poor
Cash/Share
$2.99
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-25
$N/A
2025-12-03
$1.21
+11.8% surprise
2025-09-03
$0.77
+87.7% surprise
2025-06-04
$1.26
+4.5% surprise
Consumer Defensive Sector Comparison
Comparing DLTR against 16 companies in the Consumer Defensive sector
(2 bullish, 13 neutral, 1 bearish)
P/E Ratio
24.23
This Stock
vs
24.87
Sector Avg
-2.6%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
20.07%
This Stock
vs
50.96%
Sector Avg
-60.6%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-15.4%
This Stock
vs
10.39%
Sector Avg
-248.2%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.21
This Stock
vs
1.82
Sector Avg
+21.2%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
9.4%
This Stock
vs
5.11%
Sector Avg
+83.9%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
0.96
This Stock
vs
1.05
Sector Avg
-8.5%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DLTR
Dollar Tree, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $26.05B | 24.23 | 20.1% | -15.4% | $127.7 | |
|
GIS
General Mills, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $25.29B | 8.96 | 30.9% | 15.2% | $47.41 | |
|
DG
Dollar General Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $30.12B | 23.63 | 16.4% | 3.0% | $136.82 | |
|
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $34.66B | 17.6 | 136.9% | 10.0% | $104.02 | |
|
HSY
The Hershey Company
|
NEUTRAL | $36.12B | 26.83 | 31.0% | 11.8% | $179.2 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-08 | BEEBE BRENT A | Officer | Sale | 2,200 | $274,230 |
| 2025-10-31 | BEEBE BRENT A | Officer | Stock Award | 2,522 | - |
| 2025-10-17 | AFLATOONI ROBERT | Chief Technology Officer | Sale | 1,260 | $119,328 |
| 2025-10-03 | MITCHELL JOHN S JR | Officer | Stock Award | 3,250 | - |
| 2025-09-08 | GLENDINNING STEWART F | Chief Financial Officer | Purchase | 3,500 | $342,130 |
| 2025-09-05 | STAHL STEPHANIE P | Director | Sale | 1,185 | $118,878 |
| 2025-08-01 | STAHL STEPHANIE P | Director | Stock Award | 1,185 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
NONE
23 analysts
Wells Fargo
2025-12-19
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2025-12-09
Overweight
Overweight
Morgan Stanley
2025-12-08
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Citigroup
2025-12-04
Buy
Buy
Evercore ISI Group
2025-12-04
In-Line
In-Line
UBS
2025-12-04
Buy
Buy
Piper Sandler
2025-12-04
Neutral
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2025-12-04
Overweight
Overweight
Guggenheim
2025-12-04
Buy
Buy
Telsey Advisory Group
2025-12-04
Outperform
Outperform