ETSY Etsy, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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ETSY Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Consumer Cyclical
Internet Retail
Current Price
Live
$61.77
Analyst Target
$66.93
+8.3%
Upside
52W High
$76.52
52W Low
$40.05
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 17, 2026
Market cap
$6.12B
P/E
41.74
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
6.4%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
N/A
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
Etsy's financial health is concerning with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating borderline stability. While profitability metrics like gross margin (72.04%) and ROA (9.66%) are strong, the company faces declining revenue growth (2.40% YoY) and inconsistent earnings performance, with recent quarters missing estimates by wide margins. Valuation appears stretched at a current price of $61.77 versus an intrinsic value estimate of $43.66, though forward P/E of 13.17 suggests some optimism for earnings recovery. Insider selling and a bearish technical trend further weigh on sentiment, offsetting potential from operational efficiency and solid balance sheet liquidity.
Key Strengths
Exceptionally high gross margin of 72.04%, reflecting strong pricing power and low cost of goods sold
Healthy liquidity position with current ratio of 3.17 and quick ratio of 2.68, indicating robust short-term financial health
Strong return on assets (ROA) of 9.66%, outperforming sector average ROE of 14.05% on an asset efficiency basis
Forward P/E of 13.17 suggests meaningful earnings growth expectations are priced in
Operating margin of 12.20% exceeds sector average profit margin of 2.00% by a wide margin
Key Risks
Low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals weak financial health and poor earnings quality
Significant valuation premium: stock trades at $61.77 vs. intrinsic value of $43.66, implying ~41% overvaluation
Deteriorating earnings performance with 3 of last 4 quarters missing estimates by double-digit margins
Insider selling of $9.51M in last 6 months indicates lack of confidence from executives and directors
Revenue growth has slowed to just 2.40% YoY, well below sector average of 12.82%
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$43.66
-29.3% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
37
Weak
35
58
44
48
0
AI Verdict
Neutral with caution due to mixed profitability and growth signals
Key drivers: High gross and operating margins support profitability, Weak Piotroski score and insider selling create headwinds, Forward P/E implies recovery not yet reflected in fundamentals, Recent earnings misses undermine confidence in estimates
Confidence
70%
Value
35/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 13.17 is below current P/E of 41.74, suggesting earnings recovery priced in
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 41.74 is very high relative to earnings stability
- Price/Sales of 2.15 is elevated for slow-growing firm
- Stock trades at significant premium to intrinsic value ($61.77 vs $43.66)
Future
58/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Earnings growth of 39.90% YoY and 31.60% QoQ shows recent acceleration
- Forward P/E of 13.17 implies market expects sustained improvement
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth stagnant at 2.40% YoY
- No PEG ratio due to unreliable growth forecast
Past
44/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historically strong earnings surprises pre-2024 (e.g., +65.8%, +92.3%)
- Long-term operating consistency in gross margin
Watchpoints
- Last 4 quarters have averaged -80.98% earnings surprise
- Recent negative EPS quarter (Q1 2025: -$0.49)
Health
48/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Strong liquidity with current ratio of 3.17 and quick ratio of 2.68
- No debt/equity or Altman Z-Score reported, but no red flags in cash/debt
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Missing ROE and ROIC data limits full health assessment
Dividend
0/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
- No dividend program (yield and payout ratio = 0)
- Dividend strength score of 0/100
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$61.77
Analyst Target
$66.93
Upside/Downside
+8.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for ETSY and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-16
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ETSY
Etsy, Inc.
Primary
|
-72.1% | -53.4% | +17.2% | +3.6% | +16.9% | -0.2% |
|
BC
Brunswick Corporation
Peer
|
+6.5% | +15.8% | +30.3% | +44.4% | +14.1% | -2.2% |
|
BOOT
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
Peer
|
+207.6% | +150.7% | +9.2% | +5.4% | -2.8% | -4.5% |
|
BFAM
Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc.
Peer
|
-38.4% | +19.7% | -20.7% | -18.8% | -7.2% | -2.9% |
|
ATAT
Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited
Peer
|
+206.6% | +35.8% | +46.5% | +5.9% | -11.2% | +1.6% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
41.74
Forward P/E
13.17
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-5.47
P/S Ratio
2.15
EV/Revenue
2.69
EV/EBITDA
17.17
Market Cap
$6.12B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
6.38%
Operating Margin
12.2%
Gross Margin
72.04%
ROE
N/A
ROA
9.66%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+2.4%
Earnings Growth
+39.9%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+31.6%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
3.17
Strong
Quick Ratio
2.68
Excellent
Cash/Share
$15.28
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-18
$N/A
2025-10-29
$1.02
-1.8% surprise
2025-07-30
$0.69
-36.8% surprise
2025-04-30
$-0.49
-204.3% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing ETSY against 94 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(5 bullish, 49 neutral, 40 bearish)
P/E Ratio
41.74
This Stock
vs
42.96
Sector Avg
-2.8%
(Discount)
Profit Margin
6.38%
This Stock
vs
0.78%
Sector Avg
+718.4%
(Superior)
Revenue Growth
2.4%
This Stock
vs
7.65%
Sector Avg
-68.6%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
3.17
This Stock
vs
1.88
Sector Avg
+68.7%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
ETSY
Etsy, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $6.12B | 41.74 | -% | 6.4% | $61.77 | |
|
BC
Brunswick Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $5.66B | - | -12.3% | -4.6% | $86.66 | |
|
BOOT
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $5.62B | 27.79 | 18.7% | 10.1% | $183.98 | |
|
BFAM
Bright Horizons Family...
|
NEUTRAL | $5.31B | 27.08 | 14.2% | 7.0% | $93.43 | |
|
ATAT
Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited
|
BULLISH | $5.18B | 24.99 | 46.9% | 16.2% | $37.48 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | BUCKLEY MERILEE | Officer | Sale | 5,636 | $329,417 |
| 2026-01-02 | SILVERMAN JOSH | Director | Sale | 86,666 | $4,980,170 |
| 2026-01-02 | SILVERMAN JOSH | Director | Option Exercise | 107,228 | $920,393 |
| 2025-12-31 | MINOR BRADLEY | Officer | Stock Award | 4,842 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | PATEL GOYAL KRUTI | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 12,111 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | COLBURN RICHARD EDWARD III | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 1,818 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | BUCKLEY MERILEE | Officer | Stock Award | 9,099 | - |
| 2025-12-31 | STRETCH COLIN S | Officer | Stock Award | 10,184 | - |
| 2025-12-01 | SILVERMAN JOSH | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 21,666 | $1,184,392 |
| 2025-12-01 | COLBURN RICHARD EDWARD III | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 6,464 | - |
| 2025-12-01 | SILVERMAN JOSH | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 21,666 | $230,093 |
| 2025-11-20 | BLOW MARLA J | Director | Sale | 300 | $15,706 |
| 2025-11-06 | MINOR BRADLEY | Officer | Sale | 3,095 | $178,922 |
| 2025-11-04 | COLBURN RICHARD EDWARD III | Chief Technology Officer | Sale | 3,200 | $184,960 |
| 2025-11-03 | SILVERMAN JOSH | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 21,666 | $1,331,642 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
HOLD
27 analysts
Cantor Fitzgerald
2026-01-08
Neutral
Neutral
BTIG
2025-12-30
Buy
Buy
Wedbush
2025-12-19
Neutral
Neutral
Citigroup
2025-12-15
Neutral
Neutral
Jefferies
2025-12-11
Hold
Hold
BTIG
2025-11-12
Buy
Buy
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-30
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-30
Outperform
In-Line
Barclays
2025-10-30
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Goldman Sachs
2025-10-30
Sell
Sell
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning ETSY from our newsroom.
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No matching news yet.