FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
FCX Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Basic Materials
•
Copper
Current Price
$51.93
Analyst Target
$50.52
-2.7% Downside
52W High
$53.77
52W Low
$27.66
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 04, 2026
Market cap
$74.57B
P/E
36.31
ROE
14.5%
Profit margin
8.0%
Debt/Equity
0.31
Dividend yield
1.16%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) exhibits mixed financial health with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating marginal stability, though the Altman Z-Score of 147038053068.8 suggests virtually no distress risk. The stock trades above both the Graham Number ($20.47) and intrinsic value estimate ($42.18) at $51.93, reflecting a premium valuation despite solid operating margins and strong recent earnings surprises. While profitability and cash flow generation appear healthy, growth is inconsistent, insider sentiment is bearish, and technical trends are weak. Analysts recommend a 'buy' with a target of $50.52, slightly below current levels, suggesting limited upside.
Key Strengths
Exceptionally high Altman Z-Score indicates near-zero bankruptcy risk and robust balance sheet resilience
Strong operating margin of 28.06% and gross margin of 38.72% reflect efficient cost control and pricing power in copper markets
Consistent earnings beat streak: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates with an average surprise of 16.41%
Low debt/equity ratio of 0.31 shows conservative capital structure relative to peers
High ROE of 14.54% exceeds sector average, signaling effective use of equity capital
Key Risks
Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health, particularly concerning profitability and leverage trends
Valuation appears stretched with P/E of 36.31 well above sector average of 29.61 and significantly above intrinsic value of $42.18
Insider selling activity over the past 6 months totaling $1.82M signals lack of confidence from management
Technical trend score of 10/100 indicates strong bearish momentum near 52-week high
Revenue growth of 2.70% lags peer average of 7.23%, raising concerns about top-line expansion
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$44.5
-14.3% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
55
Moderate
45
60
65
50
55
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside risks due to valuation and technicals offsetting strong fundamentals
Key drivers: High Altman Z-Score supports safety, Premium valuation limits margin of safety, Bearish insider and technical signals, Strong earnings quality but weak revenue growth, Low Piotroski score undermines financial health
Confidence
75%
Value
45/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- Forward P/E of 22.47 is more reasonable than current P/E of 36.31
Watchpoints
- Current P/E of 36.31 is elevated
- Stock trades at 25.8% premium to Graham Number ($20.47)
- Price is 23.1% above intrinsic value of $42.18
Future
60/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Earnings growth (YoY) of 27.80% is strong
- Q/Q earnings growth of 28.10% shows recent acceleration
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth (YoY) of only 2.70% is weak
- PEG Ratio unavailable due to inconsistent growth trajectory
Past
65/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 10 of last 12 quarters beat EPS estimates
- 5-year price return of +104.4% outperforms most peers
Watchpoints
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth was -7.4%, indicating deceleration
- Mixed performance prior to 2023 with several misses
Health
50/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Altman Z-Score of 147038053068.8 is astronomically high, indicating extreme financial stability
- Current ratio of 2.46 shows strong short-term liquidity
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests weak financial health
- Quick ratio of 1.05 is borderline, indicating limited liquid assets beyond inventory
Dividend
55/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Payout ratio of 41.96% is sustainable
- Dividend yield of 1.16% provides modest income
Watchpoints
- Dividend strength score of 40/100 indicates below-average reliability
- No 5-year average yield data suggests inconsistency or recent initiation
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$51.93
Analyst Target
$50.52
Upside/Downside
-2.7%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for FCX and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-02
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
Primary
|
+104.4% | +42.9% | +39.2% | +14.2% | +16.6% | -2.1% |
|
ECL
Ecolab Inc.
Peer
|
+29.4% | +84.2% | +14.9% | -3.7% | -0.4% | -1.2% |
|
SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company
Peer
|
+42.1% | +40.7% | -0.7% | -7.0% | -3.4% | +0.7% |
|
APD
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
Peer
|
+9.9% | -5.1% | -15.8% | -5.8% | +0.8% | -0.1% |
|
CTVA
Corteva, Inc.
Peer
|
+85.9% | +2.0% | +16.1% | -3.3% | +6.6% | +2.9% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
36.31
Forward P/E
22.47
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
3.99
P/S Ratio
2.87
EV/Revenue
3.51
EV/EBITDA
9.54
Market Cap
$74.57B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
7.97%
Operating Margin
28.06%
Gross Margin
38.72%
ROE
14.54%
ROA
7.7%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+2.7%
Earnings Growth
+27.8%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+28.1%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
0.31
Low debt
Current Ratio
2.46
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.05
Good
Cash/Share
$3.01
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-01-22
$N/A
2025-10-23
$0.5
+22.8% surprise
2025-07-23
$0.54
+21.8% surprise
2025-04-24
$0.24
+4.6% surprise
Basic Materials Sector Comparison
Comparing FCX against 10 companies in the Basic Materials sector
(0 bullish, 9 neutral, 1 bearish)
P/E Ratio
36.31
This Stock
vs
27.45
Sector Avg
+32.3%
(Expensive)
Return on Equity (ROE)
14.54%
This Stock
vs
15.61%
Sector Avg
-6.8%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
7.97%
This Stock
vs
8.96%
Sector Avg
-11.0%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.31
This Stock
vs
0.91
Sector Avg
-66.2%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
2.7%
This Stock
vs
5.9%
Sector Avg
-54.2%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
2.46
This Stock
vs
1.62
Sector Avg
+51.5%
(Stronger)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $74.57B | 36.31 | 14.5% | 8.0% | $51.93 | |
|
ECL
Ecolab Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $74.49B | 37.74 | 21.9% | 12.5% | $262.64 | |
|
SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company
|
NEUTRAL | $81.74B | 32.05 | 59.9% | 11.0% | $327.84 | |
|
APD
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $58.54B | - | -1.9% | -3.3% | $259.34 | |
|
CTVA
Corteva, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $44.73B | 26.72 | 6.7% | 9.2% | $66.0 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | HIGGINS STEPHEN T | Officer | Sale | 28,423 | $1,363,900 |
| 2025-12-11 | MIKES ELLIE L. | Officer | Sale | 9,572 | $456,202 |
| 2025-11-28 | ADKERSON RICHARD C | Chairman of the Board | Gift | 28,773 | - |
| 2025-10-01 | STEPHENS JOHN JOSEPH | Director | Stock Award | 525 | $20,590 |
| 2025-10-01 | GRANT HUGH N | Director | Stock Award | 860 | $33,729 |
| 2025-08-25 | ADKERSON RICHARD C | Chairman of the Board | Gift | 25,656 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
20 analysts
Wells Fargo
2025-12-23
Overweight
Overweight
UBS
2025-12-12
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2025-12-05
Overweight
Overweight
Morgan Stanley
2025-11-19
Overweight
Overweight
BMO Capital
2025-11-19
Outperform
Outperform
Scotiabank
2025-11-19
Sector Perform
Sector Outperform
Scotiabank
2025-10-28
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
HSBC
2025-10-17
Hold
Buy
JP Morgan
2025-10-09
Overweight
Overweight
Wells Fargo
2025-10-08
Overweight