FDX FedEx Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
FDX Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Industrials
•
Integrated Freight & Logistics
Current Price
$293.13
Analyst Target
$300.11
+2.4% Upside
52W High
$297.0
52W Low
$194.3
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 04, 2026
Market cap
$69.17B
P/E
16.23
ROE
15.9%
Profit margin
4.8%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
1.98%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
FedEx's financial health is mixed, with a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicating moderate stability but not strong fundamentals, while the extraordinarily high Altman Z-Score of 210609448038.4 suggests negligible bankruptcy risk. The stock trades above both the Graham Number ($220.59) and intrinsic value estimate ($126.42), reflecting a premium valuation despite solid revenue growth and improving earnings momentum. While profitability metrics like ROE (15.89%) and operating margins (7.64%) are decent, declining year-over-year earnings (-13.30%) and bearish insider activity raise concerns. Analysts maintain a 'buy' recommendation with a $300.11 target, implying limited upside from current levels near the 52-week high.
Key Strengths
Exceptionally high Altman Z-Score indicates virtually no near-term financial distress risk
Strong revenue growth of 13.90% YoY, outpacing sector average of 6.41%
Improving earnings trajectory with recent Q/Q EPS growth of +25.8% and strong earnings surprises in prior quarters
Healthy dividend profile with a sustainable 31.32% payout ratio and 1.98% yield
Valuation remains below sector average P/E of 32.77 despite premium to Graham Number
Key Risks
Low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals weak profitability and operating performance trends
Negative YoY earnings growth (-13.30%) despite recent quarterly improvement
Bearish insider sentiment with net selling of $1.69M in the last six months
Technical trend score of 10/100 indicates strong bearish momentum near price peak
Current price of $293.13 trades at a significant premium to Graham Number ($220.59) and intrinsic value ($126.42)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$220.59
-24.7% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
60
Moderate
52
68
58
50
70
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside risk if earnings recovery sustains
Key drivers: High Altman Z-Score supports resilience, Revenue growth above peer average, Premium valuation limits margin of safety, Weak Piotroski score undermines quality signal, Insider selling adds caution
Confidence
75%
Value
52/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 16.23 below sector average of 32.77
- Price/Sales of 0.77 indicates relative revenue efficiency
Watchpoints
- Current price 32.9% above Graham Number ($220.59)
- Intrinsic value ($126.42) significantly below market price
Future
68/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Recent Q/Q EPS growth of +25.8%
- Forward P/E of 13.84 suggests earnings recovery priced in
- Revenue growth accelerating to 13.90% YoY
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth still negative YoY (-13.30%)
- PEG Ratio unavailable limits growth-adjusted valuation
Past
58/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- History of beating earnings estimates (3 of last 4 quarters)
- Average earnings surprise of +14.25% over last 4 quarters
Watchpoints
- Earnings volatility evident, including -33.1% miss in Sep 2022
- 1Y price return (+9.4%) lags 3Y trend (+76.4%)
Health
50/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Altman Z-Score of 210609448038.4 indicates extreme financial safety
- Current ratio (1.27) and quick ratio (1.17) show adequate liquidity
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 reflects weak profitability and leverage trends
- Missing key metrics like Debt/Equity and ROIC limit full health assessment
Dividend
70/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 1.98% above market average
- Low payout ratio of 31.32% supports sustainability
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength score of 40/100 suggests limited growth history
- No 5-year yield average available for trend analysis
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$293.13
Analyst Target
$300.11
Upside/Downside
+2.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for FDX and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-02
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FDX
FedEx Corporation
Primary
|
+27.4% | +76.4% | +9.4% | +22.9% | +8.9% | -1.1% |
|
CSX
CSX Corporation
Peer
|
+32.3% | +22.7% | +14.6% | +8.8% | +0.9% | -1.0% |
|
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
Peer
|
+29.2% | +14.8% | -7.4% | -1.7% | -1.5% | -0.6% |
|
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
Peer
|
+81.5% | +40.8% | +1.0% | +6.7% | -1.6% | -1.1% |
|
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
Peer
|
+120.4% | +68.9% | +1.2% | -14.9% | -5.1% | +2.0% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
16.23
Forward P/E
13.84
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
2.45
P/S Ratio
0.77
EV/Revenue
N/A
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$69.17B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
4.81%
Operating Margin
7.64%
Gross Margin
27.62%
ROE
15.89%
ROA
5.07%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+13.9%
Earnings Growth
-13.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-10.7%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
1.27
Good
Quick Ratio
1.17
Good
Cash/Share
$N/A
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-03-19
$N/A
2025-12-18
$4.82
+17.2% surprise
2025-09-18
$3.83
+6.0% surprise
2025-06-24
$6.88
+19.6% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing FDX against 38 companies in the Industrials sector
(3 bullish, 29 neutral, 6 bearish)
P/E Ratio
16.23
This Stock
vs
31.3
Sector Avg
-48.1%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
15.89%
This Stock
vs
31.02%
Sector Avg
-48.8%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
4.81%
This Stock
vs
8.71%
Sector Avg
-44.7%
(Weaker)
Revenue Growth
13.9%
This Stock
vs
6.02%
Sector Avg
+131.0%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
1.27
This Stock
vs
1.73
Sector Avg
-26.4%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FDX
FedEx Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $69.17B | 16.23 | 15.9% | 4.8% | $293.13 | |
|
CSX
CSX Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $67.62B | 23.55 | 22.6% | 20.5% | $36.27 | |
|
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $71.16B | 23.64 | 91.7% | 19.1% | $243.97 | |
|
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
|
NEUTRAL | $72.17B | 31.66 | 9.4% | 12.7% | $127.58 | |
|
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $64.95B | 31.17 | 18.2% | 12.8% | $209.8 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-29 | NORTON NANCY A | Director | Stock Award | 823 | - |
| 2025-09-29 | DAVILA SILVIA | Director | Stock Award | 1,118 | $69,881 |
| 2025-09-29 | PERPALL FREDERICK | Director | Stock Award | 823 | - |
| 2025-09-29 | RAMO JOSHUA COOPER | Director | Stock Award | 1,414 | $139,999 |
| 2025-09-29 | SCHWAB SUSAN C | Director | Stock Award | 1,118 | $69,881 |
| 2025-09-29 | MARTIN ROBERT BRAD | Officer and Director | Stock Award | 6,401 | - |
| 2025-09-29 | GRIFFITH SUSAN PATRICIA | Director | Stock Award | 1,414 | $139,999 |
| 2025-09-29 | ELLISON MARVIN R | Director | Stock Award | 1,118 | $69,881 |
| 2025-09-29 | GORMAN STEPHEN E | Director | Stock Award | 823 | - |
| 2025-09-29 | WALSH PAUL S | Director | Stock Award | 823 | - |
| 2025-09-29 | LANE AMY BETH | Director | Stock Award | 823 | - |
| 2025-09-22 | TALWAR VISHAL | Officer | Stock Award | 9,302 | - |
| 2025-07-23 | RAMO JOSHUA COOPER | Director | Sale | 3,610 | $838,361 |
| 2025-07-23 | RAMO JOSHUA COOPER | Director | Option Exercise | 3,610 | $513,017 |
| 2025-07-09 | ELLISON MARVIN R | Director | Sale | 3,610 | $855,353 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
28 analysts
Citigroup
2025-12-19
Buy
Buy
Truist Securities
2025-12-19
Buy
Buy
Morgan Stanley
2025-12-19
Underweight
Underweight
BMO Capital
2025-12-19
Market Perform
Market Perform
JP Morgan
2025-12-19
Neutral
Neutral
Jefferies
2025-12-19
Buy
Buy
Stifel
2025-12-19
Buy
Buy
Wells Fargo
2025-12-19
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Stephens & Co.
2025-12-19
Overweight
Overweight
B of A Securities
2025-12-19
Neutral
Neutral