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GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL
GWW Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Industrials Industrial Distribution
Current Price
$926.21
Analyst Target
$1054.6
+13.9% Upside
52W High
$1227.44
52W Low
$893.99

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$44.46B
P/E
25.97
ROE
46.7%
Profit margin
9.7%
Debt/Equity
0.69
Dividend yield
0.98%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
75%
Analysis Accuracy
W.W. Grainger (GWW) trades at a premium valuation with solid long-term profitability and financial health, but faces near-term headwinds reflected in declining earnings growth and negative price momentum over the past year. Despite a robust ROE of 46.72% and strong liquidity, YoY earnings have contracted sharply (-38%), and insider selling adds caution. The stock is down 20.5% over the past year, underperforming peers like NSC, though it maintains a disciplined capital structure and sustainable dividend. Analysts are tepid with a 'hold' consensus and a 14.2% upside to the $1,054.60 target, suggesting limited near-term catalysts despite attractive relative metrics in some areas.

Key Strengths

Exceptional ROE of 46.72% significantly outpaces sector average of 31.90%, indicating superior capital efficiency
Strong financial health with Debt/Equity of 0.69 well below sector average of 1.44 and Current Ratio of 2.72
Attractive dividend profile with a low 24.16% payout ratio supporting long-term sustainability
Gross margin of 39.09% reflects pricing power and operational efficiency in industrial distribution
Revenue growth of 6.10% aligns with sector average of 6.05%, showing resilience amid macro pressures

Key Risks

Earnings contraction of -38.00% YoY raises concerns about margin pressures or cyclical exposure
High Price/Book of 12.39 and P/E of 25.97 exceed sector averages (P/E 31.89 but PB typically lower), increasing vulnerability to multiple compression
Insider selling activity in the last six months signals lack of confidence from executives
Forward P/E of 22.00 implies earnings recovery not yet priced in, creating earnings risk if growth disappoints
Underperformance over 1Y (-20.5%) and 6M (-15.5%) suggests weakening investor sentiment despite solid fundamentals
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$1054.6
+13.9% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
70
Strong
Value
58
Future
52
Past
78
Health
85
Dividend
76
AI Verdict
GWW presents a mixed profile—premium valuation and recent earnings declines weigh against exceptional profitability and balance sheet strength, placing it slightly above peer average in quality but lacking near-term momentum; priced fairly relative to analysts' forward expectations and trading below its target, it offers limited upside without earnings inflection.
Key drivers: High ROE and strong liquidity support quality perception, Earnings contraction and insider selling cap enthusiasm, Valuation premium demands execution consistency
Confidence
75%
Value
58/100

While GWW’s P/E is below the sector average of 31.89, its premium PB ratio and lack of EV/EBITDA data obscure true valuation; it appears richly valued on profitability-adjusted metrics despite growth deceleration.

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 22.00 is below current P/E of 25.97, suggesting expected earnings recovery
  • P/S of 2.50 is reasonable for a high-margin industrial distributor
Watchpoints
  • P/E of 25.97 is high relative to peers like PCAR (18.74) and NSC (21.64)
  • Price/Book of 12.39 is extremely elevated, signaling potential overvaluation relative to book value
Future
52/100

Despite stable top-line growth, the sharp earnings decline and negative short-term price momentum (-3.1% last month) suggest headwinds persist, with recovery dependent on margin stabilization and industrial capex rebound.

Positives
  • Revenue growth of 6.10% remains stable and in line with sector trends
  • Analyst target implies 14% upside, suggesting confidence in forward recovery
Watchpoints
  • YoY earnings growth of -38.00% and Q/Q decline of -39.50% signal deteriorating profitability
  • Lack of Q/Q revenue data limits visibility into near-term trajectory
Past
78/100

GWW has a strong historical track record of earnings delivery and margin performance, but recent underperformance in both EPS growth and stock price (-20.5% over 1Y) indicates a shift in momentum.

Positives
  • Consistent quarterly earnings beats over the last 25 quarters, including strong +12.7% and +15.5% surprises in 2023
  • Long-term profitability metrics (ROA 18.96%, Gross Margin 39.09%) show operational discipline
Watchpoints
  • Recent quarters show declining beat rates—only 2 of last 4 beats—with shrinking surprises
  • 1Y return of -20.5% lags sector leaders like NSC (+9.6%)
Health
85/100

GWW’s leverage and liquidity ratios are superior to peers like CARR and NSC, indicating conservative financial management, though incomplete cash flow data prevents full confidence in operational cash strength.

Positives
  • Debt/Equity of 0.69 is well below sector average of 1.44, reducing refinancing and interest rate risk
  • Current Ratio of 2.72 and Quick Ratio of 1.46 reflect strong short-term liquidity
Watchpoints
  • Missing Total Debt and Cash figures limit full liquidity and solvency assessment
  • No Free Cash Flow or Operating Cash Flow data obscures cash conversion quality
Dividend
76/100

The dividend is well-covered and sustainably funded, but the low yield and absence of growth trend data make it less compelling as a primary investment thesis.

Positives
  • Low payout ratio of 24.16% ensures high sustainability and room for future increases
  • Dividend yield of 0.98% provides modest income with strong coverage
Watchpoints
  • Yield is below sector average, limiting appeal to income-focused investors
  • Lack of 5-year yield history and ex-dividend date reduces transparency

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$926.21
Analyst Target
$1054.6
Upside/Downside
+13.9%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for GWW and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
Primary
+136.1% +63.6% -20.5% -15.5% -3.1% -2.8%
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
Peer
+43.0% +27.2% -26.9% -28.0% -5.1% -5.9%
FAST
Fastenal Company
Peer
+89.3% +68.9% +0.6% -1.6% -3.7% -1.0%
CPRT
Copart, Inc.
Peer
+41.6% +32.4% -28.4% -35.6% -7.8% +1.4%
PCAR
PACCAR Inc
Peer
+91.2% +58.3% -13.4% -0.5% +0.7% -2.8%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
25.97
Forward P/E
22.0
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
12.39
P/S Ratio
2.5
EV/Revenue
2.63
EV/EBITDA
15.66
Market Cap
$44.46B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 9.75%
Operating Margin 15.18%
Gross Margin 39.09%
ROE 46.72%
ROA 18.96%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +6.1%
Earnings Growth -38.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth -39.5%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.69
Moderate
Current Ratio
2.72
Strong
Quick Ratio
1.46
Good
Cash/Share
$11.25

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-02-03
$N/A
2025-10-31
$10.21
+2.6% surprise
2025-08-01
$9.97
-1.0% surprise
2025-05-01
$9.86
+3.7% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing GWW against 28 companies in the Industrials sector (6 bullish, 21 neutral, 1 bearish)
P/E Ratio
25.97
This Stock
vs
32.92
Sector Avg
-21.1% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
46.72%
This Stock
vs
31.08%
Sector Avg
+50.3% (Excellent)
Profit Margin
9.75%
This Stock
vs
13.32%
Sector Avg
-26.9% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.69
This Stock
vs
1.21
Sector Avg
-43.4% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
6.1%
This Stock
vs
6.01%
Sector Avg
+1.4% (Growing)
Current Ratio
2.72
This Stock
vs
1.82
Sector Avg
+49.0% (Stronger)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
GWW
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
NEUTRAL $44.46B 25.97 46.7% 9.7% $926.21
CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
NEUTRAL $46.46B 33.81 10.0% 18.1% $54.1
FAST
Fastenal Company
NEUTRAL $46.78B 38.16 32.7% 15.3% $40.45
CPRT
Copart, Inc.
BULLISH $40.28B 25.84 18.5% 33.4% $41.08
PCAR
PACCAR Inc
BEARISH $50.2B 18.74 14.2% 9.1% $95.59

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-09-09 LEROY JONNY M Chief Technology Officer Sale 500 $496,430
2025-05-23 BERARDINELLI KRANTZ NANCY L Officer Sale 280 $301,056
2025-05-23 ROBBINS PAIGE K Officer Gift 2,935 -
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
HOLD
15 analysts
Bernstein
2025-11-12
init
Market Perform
Barclays
2025-11-07
Maintains
Underweight Underweight
RBC Capital
2025-11-03
Maintains
Sector Perform Sector Perform
JP Morgan
2025-10-15
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Barclays
2025-10-08
init
Underweight
JP Morgan
2025-09-04
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Loop Capital
2025-08-04
Maintains
Hold Hold
RBC Capital
2025-08-04
Maintains
Sector Perform Sector Perform
Morgan Stanley
2025-07-11
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
JP Morgan
2025-05-27
Maintains
Neutral Neutral