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HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

BULLISH
HCA Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Healthcare Medical Care Facilities
Current Price
$472.65
Analyst Target
$477.57
+1.0% Upside
52W High
$480.0
52W Low
$289.98

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$108.0B
P/E
18.28
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
8.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
0.61%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
92%
Analysis Accuracy
HCA Healthcare trades near its 52-week high with strong price momentum, up 37.9% over the past year and 225.1% over five years, reflecting sustained operational outperformance. The company delivered robust YoY earnings growth of 42.6%, supported by consistent quarterly beats—21 of the last 25 quarters—and accelerating revenue growth at 9.6%. Despite a premium valuation relative to some peers, HCA’s profitability metrics, including a 15.47% operating margin and 12.20% ROA, are industry-leading and justify the multiple. Analysts are aligned with a 'buy' recommendation and a $477.57 target price, implying modest upside, while insider selling remains limited in volume and likely routine.

Key Strengths

Exceptional earnings growth of 42.6% YoY, significantly outpacing sector average revenue growth of 10.56%
Consistent earnings beat record: 21 out of 25 quarters beat estimates, with an average surprise of 13.95% over the last four
Superior profitability with 15.47% operating margin and 12.20% ROA, both above peer and sector medians
Attractive valuation relative to healthcare peers despite premium P/E, given strong earnings execution and sector tailwinds
High analyst conviction with 21 analysts maintaining a 'buy' rating and price target implying 1.0% upside

Key Risks

Negative Price/Book ratio (-20.36) suggests accumulated losses or aggressive share buybacks eroding book value
Limited liquidity with current ratio of 0.85 and quick ratio of 0.64, below the sector’s typical threshold for financial safety
Missing key financial data (EV, debt/equity, cash/debt, ROIC, ROE) raises transparency concerns and limits full capital structure analysis
Insider selling activity in the last six months (two officer sales totaling $3.45M) signals lack of near-term confidence from insiders
Valuation appears stretched relative to lower-growth peers like BMY (P/E 15.71) and CI (P/E 11.93), increasing multiple compression risk
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$477.57
+1.0% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
79
Strong
Value
78
Future
92
Past
94
Health
65
Dividend
68
AI Verdict
HCA Healthcare demonstrates elite operational execution and profitability within the medical care facilities sector, supported by consistent earnings outperformance and strong price momentum. While valuation is not cheap and liquidity metrics are tight, the company’s growth trajectory and capital allocation discipline justify a premium relative to peers like MCK and CI. The stock trades near fair value with limited near-term upside, but long-term fundamentals remain robust.
Key drivers: Sustained earnings beat streak and accelerating EPS growth, Industry-leading operating margin and ROA, Favorable analyst sentiment and price target alignment
Confidence
90%
Value
78/100

HCA’s P/E of 18.28 is well below the sector average of 38.11, suggesting relative value, but its negative book value and missing leverage metrics limit the comparability, especially against capital-light peers like SYK (P/E 47.60)

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 19.25 is reasonable given 42.6% earnings growth, implying a PEG-like ratio well below 1 if estimated
  • Price/Sales of 1.45 is attractive for a high-margin, growing healthcare operator
Watchpoints
  • Price/Book of -20.36 is a major red flag, indicating negative equity or aggressive buybacks
  • Lack of EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue prevents full enterprise valuation assessment
Future
92/100

HCA’s growth trajectory is superior to most peers, including MCK (10.1% rev growth) and BMY (2.8%), and is reflected in strong price momentum—up 12.5% in the last month and 37.9% over the past year—indicating sustained investor confidence

Positives
  • 9.6% YoY revenue growth and 42.6% earnings growth signal strong demand and pricing power
  • Q/Q earnings growth of 29.4% indicates ongoing acceleration in profitability
Watchpoints
  • Forward P/E expansion to 19.25 suggests limited multiple upside unless growth accelerates further
  • Healthcare policy risk and labor cost inflation could pressure margins in future quarters
Past
94/100

HCA has delivered exceptional earnings consistency over the past five years, with a 225.1% stock return underscoring investor rewards for reliable execution, even amid pandemic volatility and structural healthcare shifts

Positives
  • 21 of the last 25 quarters beat EPS estimates, with notable surprises in 2021–2024
  • Profitability has stabilized with gross margin at 41.38% and operating margin at 15.47%, showing pricing power and cost control
Watchpoints
  • One earnings miss in the last four quarters (Q4 2024: -1.6%) shows vulnerability to macro or operational hiccups
  • EPS growth has decelerated from 2021 highs, with Q/Q growth at only +1.8% in most recent quarter
Health
65/100

HCA’s liquidity ratios are below the sector’s average Debt/Equity of 1.18 and raise caution, though its high ROA suggests operational resilience may offset balance sheet risks, unlike more leveraged peers such as BMY (Debt/Equity 2.74)

Positives
  • High ROA of 12.20% indicates efficient asset utilization despite sector headwinds
  • No reported cash burn; operating cash flow likely strong given free cash flow generation capacity
Watchpoints
  • Current ratio of 0.85 and quick ratio of 0.64 indicate potential short-term liquidity pressure
  • Missing debt/equity and total debt/cash figures prevent full solvency assessment, a critical gap
Dividend
68/100

While HCA’s dividend is well-covered and sustainable, its low yield and lack of visible growth history make it less compelling than peers like BMY, which offer higher yields and longer payout track records

Positives
  • Low payout ratio of 10.9% provides significant dividend safety and room for future increases
  • Annual dividend of $2.88 supports a modest but growing yield of 0.61%, attractive in low-yield environment
Watchpoints
  • Dividend yield of 0.61% is below sector average and may not attract income-focused investors
  • No data on dividend growth history or policy consistency limits long-term income thesis

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$472.65
Analyst Target
$477.57
Upside/Downside
+1.0%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HCA and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
Primary
+225.1% +111.6% +37.9% +22.4% +12.5% -0.8%
MCK
McKesson Corporation
Peer
+373.0% +141.7% +38.6% +16.5% +6.3% -1.2%
BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
Peer
-12.1% -30.1% -16.3% +2.5% +7.0% -0.1%
SYK
Stryker Corporation
Peer
+61.8% +68.1% -4.6% -7.7% -2.0% +1.7%
CI
The Cigna Group
Peer
+34.3% -6.9% -15.2% -15.2% -8.5% +1.9%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
18.28
Forward P/E
19.25
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-20.36
P/S Ratio
1.45
EV/Revenue
2.1
EV/EBITDA
10.35
Market Cap
$108.0B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 8.53%
Operating Margin 15.47%
Gross Margin 41.38%
ROE N/A
ROA 12.2%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +9.6%
Earnings Growth +42.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth +29.4%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
0.85
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.64
Poor
Cash/Share
$4.78

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-01-23
$N/A
2025-10-24
$6.96
+21.6% surprise
2025-07-25
$6.84
+8.2% surprise
2025-04-25
$6.45
+12.1% surprise

Healthcare Sector Comparison

Comparing HCA against 23 companies in the Healthcare sector (10 bullish, 13 neutral, 0 bearish)
P/E Ratio
18.28
This Stock
vs
37.07
Sector Avg
-50.7% (Discount)
Profit Margin
8.53%
This Stock
vs
13.56%
Sector Avg
-37.1% (Weaker)
Revenue Growth
9.6%
This Stock
vs
11.02%
Sector Avg
-12.9% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.85
This Stock
vs
1.95
Sector Avg
-56.1% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
BULLISH $108.0B 18.28 -% 8.5% $472.65
MCK
McKesson Corporation
BULLISH $104.45B 26.32 -% 1.0% $842.09
BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
NEUTRAL $99.0B 15.71 33.8% 12.6% $46.65
SYK
Stryker Corporation
NEUTRAL $142.8B 47.6 14.0% 12.1% $362.22
CI
The Cigna Group
BULLISH $72.36B 11.93 15.5% 2.3% $269.66

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-11-05 MCALEVEY MICHAEL R. Officer Sale 3,892 $1,843,991
2025-11-05 MARKS MIKE A Chief Financial Officer Gift 330 -
2025-11-03 MCALEVEY MICHAEL R. Officer Option Exercise 13,170 $3,116,154
2025-10-31 HAZEN SAMUEL N Chief Executive Officer Option Exercise 58,050 $4,039,119
2025-09-08 CUFFE MICHAEL S Officer Sale 3,836 $1,606,670
2025-09-04 CUFFE MICHAEL S Officer Option Exercise 10,920 $1,890,470
2025-07-29 CHIDSEY JOHN W Director Stock Award 496 -
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
21 analysts
Wells Fargo
2025-11-13
Maintains
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight
Jefferies
2025-10-28
Maintains
Buy Buy
UBS
2025-10-27
Maintains
Buy Buy
B of A Securities
2025-10-27
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Goldman Sachs
2025-10-27
Maintains
Buy Buy
TD Cowen
2025-10-27
Maintains
Buy Buy
RBC Capital
2025-10-27
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Barclays
2025-10-27
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Stephens & Co.
2025-10-27
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Truist Securities
2025-10-27
Maintains
Buy Buy