HD The Home Depot, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
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HD Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Consumer Cyclical
Home Improvement Retail
Current Price
Live
$380.17
Analyst Target
$392.91
+3.4%
Upside
52W High
$426.75
52W Low
$326.31
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 17, 2026
Market cap
$378.46B
P/E
25.91
ROE
162.9%
Profit margin
8.8%
Debt/Equity
5.45
Dividend yield
2.43%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
The Home Depot's Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates stable financial health, but the absence of an Altman Z-Score limits distress risk assessment. The stock trades significantly above its Graham Number of $63.4, reflecting premium valuation, while intrinsic value estimates suggest $102.69, indicating current price levels are not supported by conservative metrics. Despite solid profitability and sector-leading margins, weakening earnings growth, insider selling, and a bearish technical trend weigh on near-term outlook. Analysts maintain a 'buy' recommendation, but recent earnings misses and high valuation multiples relative to fundamentals create a mixed picture.
Key Strengths
Strong profitability with ROE of 162.91% and operating margin of 12.95%, well above sector average of 14.05% ROE and 2.00% profit margin
Industry-leading revenue scale and market dominance in home improvement retail with stable YoY revenue growth of 2.80%
Attractive dividend yield of 2.43% with a sustainable payout ratio of 62.41%
Significant historical price appreciation over 5Y (+57.2%) despite recent 1Y decline
Valuation remains below sector average P/E of 37.51, despite HD's own elevated P/E of 25.91
Key Risks
Earnings growth declining YoY (+1.9%) and sharply negative Q/Q (-18.3%), indicating weakening momentum
High debt/equity ratio of 5.45, significantly above sector average of 1.41, raising leverage concerns
Poor liquidity profile with current ratio of 1.05 and very low quick ratio of 0.25
Insider sentiment is bearish with $22.01M in net selling over last 6 months and no insider buys
Technical trend score of 0/100 signals strong bearish momentum near-term
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$102.69
-73.0% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
60
Strong
50
45
70
60
75
AI Verdict
Moderately positive fundamentals offset by valuation and technical headwinds
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score of 6 supports stable health, Premium valuation relative to Graham Number, Declining earnings growth trends, Bearish insider and technical signals, Strong dividend and profitability metrics
Confidence
75%
Value
50/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 25.91 below sector average of 37.51
- Forward P/E of 25.27 indicates stable expectations
Watchpoints
- Price/Book of 31.22 extremely high, suggesting overvaluation
- Current price ($380.17) far above Graham Number ($63.4)
Future
45/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Revenue growth remains positive at 2.80% YoY
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth negative YoY (-1.40%) and Q/Q (-1.30%)
- Most recent Q/Q EPS growth down -18.3%
- PEG Ratio unavailable, suggesting growth sustainability concerns
Past
70/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Long-term 5Y return of +57.2% demonstrates strong historical performance
- History of consistent earnings beats prior to last 4 quarters
Watchpoints
- Last 4 quarters missed estimates, reversing prior trend
- 1Y price return negative at -4.8%
Health
60/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates stable financial condition
- ROA of 13.23% well above 5% threshold for financial strength
Watchpoints
- Altman Z-Score not available, limiting distress risk analysis
- Debt/Equity of 5.45 is very high, indicating significant leverage
Dividend
75/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.43% above market average
- Payout ratio of 62.41% is sustainable for mature company
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength score of 50/100 suggests moderate reliability
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$380.17
Analyst Target
$392.91
Upside/Downside
+3.4%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HD and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-16
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
Primary
|
+57.2% | +25.3% | -4.8% | +7.1% | +6.6% | +1.5% |
|
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Peer
|
-30.2% | +52.7% | +104.6% | +44.3% | +15.4% | +4.7% |
|
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
Peer
|
+77.3% | +72.2% | +30.0% | +37.2% | +8.0% | +4.5% |
|
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
Peer
|
+64.8% | +20.2% | +12.5% | +4.7% | -3.5% | +0.0% |
|
TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
Peer
|
+152.3% | +101.2% | +31.3% | +29.6% | +1.1% | -0.3% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
25.91
Forward P/E
25.27
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
31.22
P/S Ratio
2.28
EV/Revenue
2.66
EV/EBITDA
17.3
Market Cap
$378.46B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
8.77%
Operating Margin
12.95%
Gross Margin
33.36%
ROE
162.91%
ROA
13.23%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+2.8%
Earnings Growth
-1.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-1.3%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
5.45
High debt
Current Ratio
1.05
Good
Quick Ratio
0.25
Poor
Cash/Share
$1.69
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-24
$N/A
2025-11-18
$3.74
-2.5% surprise
2025-08-19
$4.58
-0.5% surprise
2025-05-20
$3.56
-0.8% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing HD against 94 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(5 bullish, 49 neutral, 40 bearish)
P/E Ratio
25.91
This Stock
vs
42.97
Sector Avg
-39.7%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
162.91%
This Stock
vs
6.02%
Sector Avg
+2605.0%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
8.77%
This Stock
vs
0.78%
Sector Avg
+1025.2%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
5.45
This Stock
vs
1.65
Sector Avg
+230.2%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
2.8%
This Stock
vs
7.65%
Sector Avg
-63.4%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.05
This Stock
vs
1.88
Sector Avg
-44.1%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $378.46B | 25.91 | 162.9% | 8.8% | $380.17 | |
|
BABA
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
|
NEUTRAL | $413.56B | 23.6 | 11.2% | 12.2% | $173.23 | |
|
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $303.04B | 10.38 | 12.9% | 9.4% | $231.42 | |
|
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $219.38B | 26.21 | -% | 32.0% | $307.43 | |
|
TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $175.15B | 34.74 | 58.4% | 8.7% | $157.38 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN | General Counsel | Sale | 2,872 | $1,000,961 |
| 2025-12-12 | BROWN ANGIE | Chief Technology Officer | Sale | 1,946 | $695,948 |
| 2025-12-12 | BROWN ANGIE | Chief Technology Officer | Option Exercise | 1,516 | $394,557 |
| 2025-12-11 | CAMPBELL ANN-MARIE | Officer | Sale | 145 | $51,948 |
| 2025-09-12 | BASTEK WILLIAM D | Officer | Option Exercise | 2,303 | $339,370 |
| 2025-09-12 | BASTEK WILLIAM D | Officer | Sale | 2,303 | $974,445 |
| 2025-08-22 | BASTEK WILLIAM D | Officer | Option Exercise | 3,783 | $492,622 |
| 2025-08-22 | ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN | General Counsel | Option Exercise | 4,103 | $921,014 |
| 2025-08-22 | ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN | General Counsel | Sale | 5,483 | $2,265,767 |
| 2025-08-22 | BASTEK WILLIAM D | Officer | Sale | 3,783 | $1,551,900 |
| 2025-08-21 | DECKER EDWARD P. | Chief Executive Officer | Option Exercise | 32,897 | $4,283,847 |
| 2025-08-21 | BROWN ANGIE | Chief Technology Officer | Stock Award | 628 | - |
| 2025-08-21 | SMITH STEPHANIE | Officer | Stock Award | 628 | - |
| 2025-08-21 | DECKER EDWARD P. | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 32,897 | $13,067,210 |
| 2025-08-20 | MCPHAIL RICHARD V | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 3,369 | $438,711 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
33 analysts
Morgan Stanley
2026-01-15
Overweight
Overweight
DA Davidson
2025-12-10
Buy
Buy
Wells Fargo
2025-12-10
Overweight
Overweight
UBS
2025-12-10
Buy
Buy
RBC Capital
2025-12-10
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
Telsey Advisory Group
2025-12-10
Outperform
Outperform
Piper Sandler
2025-12-10
Overweight
Overweight
Oppenheimer
2025-12-05
Perform
Perform
Stifel
2025-12-01
Hold
Hold
Citigroup
2025-11-21
Buy
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning HD from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.