HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Key Strengths
Key Risks
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
HLT trades at a significant valuation premium to sector peers despite slower revenue growth than the sector average of 16.55%, making it appear overvalued on growth-adjusted metrics
- Forward P/E of 33.75 is lower than current P/E, suggesting some earnings recovery priced in
- P/B negative due to accounting factors (likely intangible asset write-downs), not necessarily indicative of distress
- P/E of 39.20 exceeds both forward P/E and sector dynamics, especially given only 3.5% revenue growth
- Price/Sales of 12.88 is extremely high, surpassing even high-margin peers like CMG (6.5x) and ORLY (~4x)
While long-term earnings growth has been strong, the recent reversal in EPS momentum and tepid revenue expansion contrast with improving price trends and analyst optimism, suggesting future upside may be limited without margin expansion or RevPAR acceleration
- 29% YoY earnings growth demonstrates pricing power and operating leverage
- Q/Q earnings growth of 22.1% in prior quarter shows residual strength despite recent deceleration
- Most recent Q/Q EPS down 19.1% and YoY EPS down 7.3%, indicating near-term headwinds
- Revenue growth of only 3.5% YoY lags sector average of 16.55%, raising sustainability concerns
HLT has delivered exceptional historical earnings performance with a 156.1% 5Y return and consistent margin strength, though the past two quarters show a reversal in EPS growth, marking a potential inflection point
- Consistent earnings beat streak: 22 of last 25 quarters beat estimates, including several double-digit surprises
- Profitability metrics have remained stable and high, with gross and operating margins expanding post-pandemic
- Earnings volatility evident during 2020–2021, with multiple large negative surprises
- Recent two quarters show declining EPS, breaking a multi-year upward trend
HLT’s liquidity ratios are weak compared to sector norms, though its asset-light model mitigates some risk; lack of debt/cash transparency limits full health assessment relative to peers like MAR
- High ROA of 9.63% suggests efficient use of assets despite leverage
- Asset-light franchising model reduces capital intensity and supports cash flow
- Current ratio of 0.66 and quick ratio of 0.58 are below 1.0, indicating potential liquidity pressure
- Debt and cash data unavailable, but low liquidity ratios suggest possible leverage or working capital strain
HLT’s dividend policy prioritizes buybacks over yield, with a minimal 0.22% payout that fails to attract income investors, especially compared to higher-yielding consumer cyclicals
- Payout ratio of 8.71% is very low, indicating high sustainability and room for future increases
- Dividend has been maintained through cycles, reflecting capital allocation discipline
- Dividend yield of only 0.22% offers negligible income return, unattractive vs. sector peers
- No dividend growth history provided, and yield below 5Y average suggests stagnation
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HLT and closest competitors.
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Primary
|
+156.1% | +96.3% | +8.1% | +5.6% | +1.7% | -1.3% |
|
AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
Peer
|
+236.5% | +59.0% | +23.0% | +1.9% | -4.2% | +3.7% |
|
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
Peer
|
+239.7% | +322.6% | +9.8% | -0.4% | -18.7% | -1.2% |
|
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
Peer
|
+138.8% | +82.0% | +2.3% | +5.1% | +7.3% | -1.9% |
|
ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
Peer
|
+221.3% | +79.6% | +21.0% | +7.3% | -3.2% | +1.8% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $62.73B | 39.2 | -% | 34.2% | $269.67 | |
|
AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $64.15B | 26.6 | -% | 13.2% | $3856.87 | |
|
RCL
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
|
BULLISH | $69.75B | 17.01 | 46.7% | 23.3% | $252.87 | |
|
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $77.13B | 30.11 | -% | 38.0% | $285.72 | |
|
ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $83.4B | 34.31 | -% | 14.2% | $98.8 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | STEENLAND DOUGLAS M | Director | Stock Award | 10 | - |
| 2025-09-30 | MAYER MARISSA A | Director | Stock Award | - | - |
| 2025-09-30 | MABUS RAYMOND E JR | Director | Stock Award | 7 | - |
| 2025-09-30 | CARR CHRIS | Director | Stock Award | 3 | - |
| 2025-09-30 | BEGLEY CHARLENE T | Director | Stock Award | 7 | - |
| 2025-09-30 | SMITH ELIZABETH A | Director | Stock Award | 10 | - |
| 2025-09-30 | GRAY JONATHAN D. | Director | Stock Award | 4 | - |
| 2025-09-30 | HEALEY MELANIE L | Director | Stock Award | 8 | - |
| 2025-08-21 | SILCOCK CHRISTOPHER W | Officer | Sale | 11,905 | $3,207,207 |
| 2025-08-21 | SILCOCK CHRISTOPHER W | Officer | Option Exercise | 11,905 | $492,986 |
| 2025-08-05 | CHARNAUX CHRISTIAN H. | Officer | Stock Award | 12,203 | - |
| 2025-06-27 | STEENLAND DOUGLAS M | Director | Stock Award | 10 | - |
| 2025-06-27 | MAYER MARISSA A | Director | Stock Award | - | - |
| 2025-06-27 | MABUS RAYMOND E JR | Director | Stock Award | 6 | - |
| 2025-06-27 | CARR CHRIS | Director | Stock Award | 3 | - |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets