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HLT

NEUTRAL
$269.67 Live
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. · NYSE
Target $281.83 (+4.5%)
$196.04 52W Range $279.81
Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Peers Insiders

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$62.73B
P/E
39.2
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
34.2%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
0.22%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
72%
Hilton Worldwide (HLT) trades near its 52-week high at $269.67, reflecting strong long-term price momentum with a 156.1% return over five years, though recent near-term performance has cooled with flat 6M and 1Y returns. The company exhibits elite profitability metrics—operating margin of 60.33%, gross margin of 77.52%, and ROA of 9.63%—significantly outpacing sector averages, while earnings growth remains robust at 29% YoY despite a recent Q/Q decline. Valuation appears stretched with a P/E of 39.20 and Price/Sales of 12.88, exceeding peer and sector averages, which limits margin of safety despite analyst consensus of 'buy' and a $281.83 target price implying 4.5% upside. Bearish insider activity, including a $3.21M officer sale, contrasts with strong historical earnings beats and resilient cash flow generation, creating a mixed signal that tempers enthusiasm.

Key Strengths

Operating margin of 60.33% is exceptional, nearly double the sector average of ~30% and significantly above peers like MAR (estimated ~40%)
Gross margin of 77.52% reflects powerful pricing power and asset-light business model efficiency
Profit margin of 34.19% far exceeds sector average of 12.23%, highlighting superior cost control and brand strength
ROA of 9.63% indicates effective asset utilization, outperforming many capital-intensive consumer cyclicals
Analyst target price of $281.83 implies 4.5% upside with 24 analysts maintaining a 'buy' rating, signaling institutional confidence

Key Risks

P/E of 39.20 is elevated vs. sector average of 49.97 but forward P/E of 33.75 remains high relative to modest 3.5% revenue growth, creating decoupling risk
Price/Sales of 12.88 is among the highest in the sector, suggesting premium valuation not fully supported by growth trajectory
Current ratio of 0.66 and quick ratio of 0.58 indicate tight liquidity, raising concerns about short-term financial flexibility
Recent insider selling by an officer ($3.21M) introduces caution, especially near 52-week highs
Q/Q EPS decline of 19.1% and YoY EPS drop of 7.3% signal near-term earnings pressure despite strong annual growth
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$258.5
-4.1% below current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
59
Moderate
Value
52
Future
64
Past
82
Health
58
Dividend
40
AI Verdict
HLT demonstrates elite profitability and brand strength within the lodging sector, supported by strong historical performance and analyst optimism, but stretched valuations and deteriorating near-term earnings growth limit appeal despite trading close to its 52-week high; relative to peers like MAR and CMG, HLT offers better margins but at a higher multiple with less growth runway.
Key drivers: Exceptional margin profile and ROA, Premium valuation relative to growth, Mixed earnings momentum and insider sentiment
Confidence
75%
Value
52/100

HLT trades at a significant valuation premium to sector peers despite slower revenue growth than the sector average of 16.55%, making it appear overvalued on growth-adjusted metrics

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 33.75 is lower than current P/E, suggesting some earnings recovery priced in
  • P/B negative due to accounting factors (likely intangible asset write-downs), not necessarily indicative of distress
Watchpoints
  • P/E of 39.20 exceeds both forward P/E and sector dynamics, especially given only 3.5% revenue growth
  • Price/Sales of 12.88 is extremely high, surpassing even high-margin peers like CMG (6.5x) and ORLY (~4x)
Future
64/100

While long-term earnings growth has been strong, the recent reversal in EPS momentum and tepid revenue expansion contrast with improving price trends and analyst optimism, suggesting future upside may be limited without margin expansion or RevPAR acceleration

Positives
  • 29% YoY earnings growth demonstrates pricing power and operating leverage
  • Q/Q earnings growth of 22.1% in prior quarter shows residual strength despite recent deceleration
Watchpoints
  • Most recent Q/Q EPS down 19.1% and YoY EPS down 7.3%, indicating near-term headwinds
  • Revenue growth of only 3.5% YoY lags sector average of 16.55%, raising sustainability concerns
Past
82/100

HLT has delivered exceptional historical earnings performance with a 156.1% 5Y return and consistent margin strength, though the past two quarters show a reversal in EPS growth, marking a potential inflection point

Positives
  • Consistent earnings beat streak: 22 of last 25 quarters beat estimates, including several double-digit surprises
  • Profitability metrics have remained stable and high, with gross and operating margins expanding post-pandemic
Watchpoints
  • Earnings volatility evident during 2020–2021, with multiple large negative surprises
  • Recent two quarters show declining EPS, breaking a multi-year upward trend
Health
58/100

HLT’s liquidity ratios are weak compared to sector norms, though its asset-light model mitigates some risk; lack of debt/cash transparency limits full health assessment relative to peers like MAR

Positives
  • High ROA of 9.63% suggests efficient use of assets despite leverage
  • Asset-light franchising model reduces capital intensity and supports cash flow
Watchpoints
  • Current ratio of 0.66 and quick ratio of 0.58 are below 1.0, indicating potential liquidity pressure
  • Debt and cash data unavailable, but low liquidity ratios suggest possible leverage or working capital strain
Dividend
40/100

HLT’s dividend policy prioritizes buybacks over yield, with a minimal 0.22% payout that fails to attract income investors, especially compared to higher-yielding consumer cyclicals

Positives
  • Payout ratio of 8.71% is very low, indicating high sustainability and room for future increases
  • Dividend has been maintained through cycles, reflecting capital allocation discipline
Watchpoints
  • Dividend yield of only 0.22% offers negligible income return, unattractive vs. sector peers
  • No dividend growth history provided, and yield below 5Y average suggests stagnation

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$269.67
Analyst Target
$281.83
Upside/Downside
+4.5%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HLT and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
HLT
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
Primary
5Y
+156.1%
3Y
+96.3%
1Y
+8.1%
6M
+5.6%
1M
+1.7%
1W
-1.3%
AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+209.3%
3Y
+58.0%
1Y
+9.7%
6M
-3.2%
1M
+7.1%
1W
+5.0%
RAC
Ferrari N.V.
Peer
5Y
+70.7%
3Y
+29.5%
1Y
-19.6%
6M
-29.9%
1M
-5.3%
1W
+6.6%
CVN
Carvana Co.
Peer
5Y
+39.0%
3Y
+5318.3%
1Y
+74.1%
6M
+16.5%
1M
+32.6%
1W
+5.6%
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-63.0%
3Y
-60.5%
1Y
-28.1%
6M
-38.0%
1M
-25.6%
1W
-14.3%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
39.2
Forward P/E
33.75
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-12.74
P/S Ratio
12.88
EV/Revenue
15.2
EV/EBITDA
27.03
Market Cap
$62.73B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 34.19%
Operating Margin 60.33%
Gross Margin 77.52%
ROE N/A
ROA 9.63%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +3.5%
Earnings Growth +29.0%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth +22.1%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
0.66
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.58
Poor
Cash/Share
$4.55

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-02-04
$N/A
2025-10-22
$1.78
-5.2% surprise
2025-07-23
$2.2
+7.6% surprise
2025-04-29
$1.72
+7.0% surprise

Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison

Comparing HLT against 386 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector (23 bullish, 133 neutral, 230 bearish)
P/E Ratio
39.2
This Stock
vs
33.98
Sector Avg
+15.3% (Premium)
Profit Margin
34.19%
This Stock
vs
-5.4%
Sector Avg
-733.7% (Weaker)
Revenue Growth
3.5%
This Stock
vs
28.42%
Sector Avg
-87.7% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.66
This Stock
vs
2.46
Sector Avg
-73.0% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

HLT Hilton Worldwide...
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$62.7B
P/E
39.2
ROE
-%
Price
$269.67
AZO AutoZone, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$61.5B
P/E
25.8
ROE
-%
Price
$3700.0
 Compare with HLT
RACE Ferrari N.V.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$61.2B
P/E
33.5
ROE
42.9%
Price
$343.5
 Compare with HLT
CVNA Carvana Co.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$58.5B
P/E
48.3
ROE
67.9%
Price
$409.08
 Compare with HLT
NKE NIKE, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$67.2B
P/E
26.6
ROE
17.9%
Price
$45.43
 Compare with HLT

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

STEENLAND DOUGLAS M
Director
Stock Award
2025-09-30
10 shares
MAYER MARISSA A
Director
Stock Award
2025-09-30
MABUS RAYMOND E JR
Director
Stock Award
2025-09-30
7 shares
CARR CHRIS
Director
Stock Award
2025-09-30
3 shares
BEGLEY CHARLENE T
Director
Stock Award
2025-09-30
7 shares
SMITH ELIZABETH A
Director
Stock Award
2025-09-30
10 shares
GRAY JONATHAN D.
Director
Stock Award
2025-09-30
4 shares
HEALEY MELANIE L
Director
Stock Award
2025-09-30
8 shares
SILCOCK CHRISTOPHER W
Officer
Sell
2025-08-21
11,905 shares · $3,207,207
SILCOCK CHRISTOPHER W
Officer
Option Exercise
2025-08-21
11,905 shares · $492,986
CHARNAUX CHRISTIAN H.
Officer
Stock Award
2025-08-05
12,203 shares
STEENLAND DOUGLAS M
Director
Stock Award
2025-06-27
10 shares
MAYER MARISSA A
Director
Stock Award
2025-06-27
MABUS RAYMOND E JR
Director
Stock Award
2025-06-27
6 shares
CARR CHRIS
Director
Stock Award
2025-06-27
3 shares
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
24 analysts
Truist Securities
2025-10-23
Maintains
Hold Hold
Susquehanna
2025-10-23
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Barclays
2025-10-23
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Goldman Sachs
2025-10-23
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-22
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Baird
2025-10-17
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-14
Maintains
In-Line In-Line
Barclays
2025-10-03
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Raymond James
2025-07-30
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Truist Securities
2025-07-24
Maintains
Hold Hold

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning HLT from our newsroom.

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