HTGC
NEUTRAL
$15.48
Live
Hercules Capital, Inc. · NYSE
Target $19.36
(+25.1%)
$13.7
52W Range
$19.67
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Apr 28, 2026
Market cap
$2.9B
P/E
8.37
ROE
16.2%
Profit margin
63.8%
Debt/Equity
1.04
Dividend yield
12.14%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
85%
HTGC presents a stark contrast between deep fundamental value and deteriorating financial health markers. While the Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicates weak operational health and the technical trend is bearish, the stock trades significantly below its Graham Number ($22.61) and Intrinsic Value ($54.58). Strong growth in revenue and earnings is offset by a concerning dividend payout ratio of 101.62%, suggesting the current yield is unsustainable. The valuation is highly attractive, but the deterministic health scores necessitate a cautious approach.
Key Strengths
Significant undervaluation relative to Graham Number ($22.61) and Intrinsic Value ($54.58)
Very low PEG ratio (0.52) indicating growth is not priced in
Strong earnings growth (YoY 31.40%) and revenue growth (YoY 12.80%)
Consistent track record of earnings beats over 25 quarters
High profit margins (63.80%) and operating margins (83.82%)
Key Risks
Weak Piotroski F-Score (2/9) signaling poor financial health trends
Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (101.62%) exceeding net income
Extremely low current ratio (0.20) indicating potential liquidity constraints
Bearish technical trend (0/100) showing strong downward price momentum
High dividend yield (12.14%) may be a 'value trap' given the payout ratio
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$21.5
+38.9% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
60
Strong
92
78
80
15
35
AI Verdict
Value Play with Health Warnings
Key drivers: Deep valuation discount, Weak Piotroski F-Score, Dividend sustainability risk, Strong growth metrics
Confidence
90%
Value
92/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 8.37 is well below sector average
- Trading at a discount to Graham Number
- PEG ratio of 0.52 suggests extreme undervaluation
Watchpoints
- Market sentiment is currently bearish
Future
78/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Strong Q/Q revenue growth (41.02%)
- Strong Q/Q earnings growth (47.80%)
Watchpoints
- Recent Q/Q EPS growth turned slightly negative (-2.0%)
Past
80/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Long-term 5Y change of +54.7%
- Consistent history of meeting or beating analyst estimates
Watchpoints
- 1Y return is negative (-4.5%)
Health
15/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- Manageable Debt/Equity (1.04) relative to sector
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 is critically weak
- Current ratio of 0.20 is dangerously low
Dividend
35/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Very high yield of 12.14%
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 101.62% indicates dividend is not fully covered by earnings
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$15.48
Analyst Target
$19.36
Upside/Downside
+25.1%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for HTGC and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-04-27
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
Primary
|
+54.7% | +61.6% | -4.5% | -8.7% | +11.4% | -2.8% |
|
DBRG
DigitalBridge Group, Inc.
Peer
|
-42.8% | +34.4% | +86.3% | +25.4% | +1.4% | +0.1% |
|
FSK
FS KKR Capital Corp.
Peer
|
+4.8% | -9.3% | -37.8% | -24.1% | +1.0% | -7.6% |
|
ADX
Adams Diversified Equity Fund, Inc.
Peer
|
+91.8% | +107.2% | +21.8% | +11.2% | +1.7% | +2.5% |
|
BANC
Banc of California, Inc.
Peer
|
+17.6% | +67.1% | +41.2% | +10.3% | +6.9% | -1.0% |
HTG
Hercules Capital, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+54.7%
3Y
+61.6%
1Y
-4.5%
6M
-8.7%
1M
+11.4%
1W
-2.8%
DBR
DigitalBridge Group, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-42.8%
3Y
+34.4%
1Y
+86.3%
6M
+25.4%
1M
+1.4%
1W
+0.1%
FSK
FS KKR Capital Corp.
Peer
5Y
+4.8%
3Y
-9.3%
1Y
-37.8%
6M
-24.1%
1M
+1.0%
1W
-7.6%
ADX
Adams Diversified Equity Fund, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+91.8%
3Y
+107.2%
1Y
+21.8%
6M
+11.2%
1M
+1.7%
1W
+2.5%
BAN
Banc of California, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+17.6%
3Y
+67.1%
1Y
+41.2%
6M
+10.3%
1M
+6.9%
1W
-1.0%
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
8.37
Forward P/E
7.86
PEG Ratio
0.52
P/B Ratio
1.26
P/S Ratio
5.44
EV/Revenue
9.49
EV/EBITDA
11.36
Market Cap
$2.9B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
63.8%
Operating Margin
83.82%
Gross Margin
100.0%
ROE
16.16%
ROA
6.61%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+12.8%
Earnings Growth
+31.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
+41.02%
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+47.8%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.04
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.2
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.19
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.31
Financial Statement Flow
Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025
Revenue
$0.1B
Net Margin
78.3%
Total Assets
$4.6B
Liabilities
$2.4B
Equity
$2.2B
Debt/Equity
1.07x
Operating CF
$-0.1B
CapEx
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.1B
FCF Yield
100%
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-05-05
$N/A
2026-02-12
$0.48
-2.5% surprise
2025-10-30
$0.49
+1.3% surprise
2025-07-31
$0.5
+6.0% surprise
Financial Services Sector Comparison
Comparing HTGC against 820 companies in the Financial Services sector
(141 bullish, 351 neutral, 328 bearish)
P/E Ratio
8.37
This Stock
vs
36.01
Sector Avg
-76.8%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
16.16%
This Stock
vs
-0.73%
Sector Avg
-2304.8%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
63.8%
This Stock
vs
91.62%
Sector Avg
-30.4%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.04
This Stock
vs
1.36
Sector Avg
-23.5%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
12.8%
This Stock
vs
35.27%
Sector Avg
-63.7%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.2
This Stock
vs
3.18
Sector Avg
-93.8%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $2.9B | 8.37 | 16.2% | 63.8% | $15.48 | |
|
DBRG
DigitalBridge Group, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.85B | 32.5 | -0.9% | 151.0% | $15.6 | Compare |
|
FSK
FS KKR Capital Corp.
|
BEARISH | $2.95B | 263.0 | 0.2% | 0.7% | $10.52 | Compare |
|
ADX
Adams Diversified Equity Fund, Inc.
|
BEARISH | $2.85B | 7.72 | 12.2% | 981.2% | $23.69 | Compare |
|
BANC
Banc of California, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $2.84B | 15.72 | 6.5% | 21.8% | $18.39 | Compare |
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$2.9B
P/E
8.4
ROE
16.2%
Price
$15.48
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | CROWELL GAYLE ANNE | Director | Purchase | 7,317 | $104,999 |
| 2026-03-26 | RANDHAWA PARAMJEET K | Director | Purchase | 2,926 | $41,988 |
| 2026-03-26 | FALLON THOMAS J | Director | Purchase | 7,300 | $104,390 |
| 2026-03-26 | THEODOSOPOULOS NIKOS | Director | Purchase | 7,317 | $104,999 |
| 2026-03-26 | LOO WADE W | Director | Purchase | 7,317 | $104,999 |
| 2026-03-26 | AGUIRRE DEANNE | Director | Purchase | 7,317 | $104,999 |
| 2026-03-26 | BADAVAS ROBERT P | Director | Purchase | 3,658 | $52,492 |
| 2026-03-04 | RANDHAWA PARAMJEET K | Director | Purchase | 3,050 | $45,079 |
| 2026-03-04 | FOLLMANN CHRISTIAN | Chief Operating Officer | Purchase | 5,000 | $73,400 |
| 2026-03-04 | FOLLMANN CHRISTIAN | Chief Operating Officer | Purchase | 5,000 | $73,400 |
| 2026-02-27 | FALLON THOMAS J | Director | Purchase | 20,000 | $284,000 |
| 2026-02-27 | BLUESTEIN SCOTT | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 7,000 | $100,450 |
| 2026-02-27 | THEODOSOPOULOS NIKOS | Director | Purchase | 2,600 | $36,946 |
| 2026-02-27 | MEYER SETH H | Chief Financial Officer | Purchase | 7,000 | $100,310 |
| 2026-02-27 | MEYER SETH H | Chief Financial Officer | Purchase | 14,000 | $200,620 |
CROWELL GAYLE ANNE
Director
2026-03-26
7,317 shares
·
$104,999
RANDHAWA PARAMJEET K
Director
2026-03-26
2,926 shares
·
$41,988
FALLON THOMAS J
Director
2026-03-26
7,300 shares
·
$104,390
THEODOSOPOULOS NIKOS
Director
2026-03-26
7,317 shares
·
$104,999
LOO WADE W
Director
2026-03-26
7,317 shares
·
$104,999
AGUIRRE DEANNE
Director
2026-03-26
7,317 shares
·
$104,999
BADAVAS ROBERT P
Director
2026-03-26
3,658 shares
·
$52,492
RANDHAWA PARAMJEET K
Director
2026-03-04
3,050 shares
·
$45,079
FOLLMANN CHRISTIAN
Chief Operating Officer
2026-03-04
5,000 shares
·
$73,400
FOLLMANN CHRISTIAN
Chief Operating Officer
2026-03-04
5,000 shares
·
$73,400
FALLON THOMAS J
Director
2026-02-27
20,000 shares
·
$284,000
BLUESTEIN SCOTT
Chief Executive Officer
2026-02-27
7,000 shares
·
$100,450
THEODOSOPOULOS NIKOS
Director
2026-02-27
2,600 shares
·
$36,946
MEYER SETH H
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-27
7,000 shares
·
$100,310
MEYER SETH H
Chief Financial Officer
2026-02-27
14,000 shares
·
$200,620
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
9 analysts
Citizens
2026-04-22
Market Outperform
Market Outperform
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-04-16
Outperform
Outperform
Piper Sandler
2026-04-07
Neutral
Neutral
UBS
2026-03-13
Neutral
Neutral
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
2026-02-13
Outperform
Outperform
Wells Fargo
2026-02-13
Overweight
Overweight
Piper Sandler
2026-02-13
Overweight
Neutral
Compass Point
2025-11-04
Neutral
Buy
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning HTGC from our newsroom.
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