KMI Kinder Morgan, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
KMI Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Energy
•
Oil & Gas Midstream
Current Price
$27.42
Analyst Target
$31.15
+13.6% Upside
52W High
$31.48
52W Low
$23.94
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$61.0B
P/E
22.48
ROE
8.9%
Profit margin
16.6%
Debt/Equity
1.02
Dividend yield
4.27%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Kinder Morgan (KMI) trades near fair value with a current price of $27.42, modestly below the analyst target of $31.15, implying 13.6% upside. The company exhibits strong revenue growth (12.1% YoY) and solid operating margins (25.64%), outperforming sector peers on profitability and growth, though earnings growth remains muted at 0.3% YoY despite a recent acceleration in EPS. Valuation is in line with the energy sector average (P/E 22.48 vs. 22.54), but elevated payout ratio (95.08%) and insider selling raise sustainability concerns. While the 4.27% dividend yield is attractive, weak liquidity (current ratio 0.63) and high leverage (D/E 1.02) constrain financial flexibility, offsetting otherwise stable midstream fundamentals.
Key Strengths
Revenue growth of 12.1% YoY significantly outpaces peer average of 0.11% and positions KMI as a top performer in the midstream segment
Operating margin of 25.64% and gross margin of 49.12% reflect strong cost control and asset efficiency, well above sector averages of 8.65% profit margin and ~20% operating margin implied by ROE spread
ROE of 8.88% exceeds sector median despite higher leverage, indicating effective capital deployment relative to equity base
Dividend yield of 4.27% is among the highest in the peer group, offering income appeal in a yield-constrained environment
Analyst consensus is 'buy' with 20 analysts supporting upside, and target price implies meaningful 13.6% appreciation potential
Key Risks
Earnings growth of only 0.3% YoY despite strong revenue growth suggests margin compression or one-time costs, raising concerns about profit conversion
Payout ratio of 95.08% leaves minimal buffer for dividend coverage, increasing risk of cut if cash flow dips
Debt/Equity of 1.02 is above sector average of 0.56 and peer MPC (1.43) is the only comparable, increasing refinancing and interest rate risk
Current ratio of 0.63 and quick ratio of 0.40 indicate poor short-term liquidity, below all major peers and raising working capital concerns
Insider selling of $4.55M over last 6 months across 8 transactions signals lack of confidence from corporate insiders, a bearish governance signal
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$31.15
+13.6% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
68
Strong
70
65
72
58
76
AI Verdict
KMI presents a balanced but constrained investment case: it trades at fair value relative to peers and analyst targets, with strong revenue growth and margins offset by weak earnings momentum, high payout ratio, and deteriorating insider sentiment. While the midstream sector has seen strong momentum (e.g., VLO +34.1% 1Y), KMI’s 7.0% 1Y return lags, reflecting investor caution on leverage and dividend sustainability.
Key drivers: Attractive 4.27% dividend yield with sector-relative growth, Strong revenue growth outpacing nearly all peers, Elevated payout ratio and insider selling limiting upside
Confidence
75%
Value
70/100
KMI’s valuation is broadly in line with sector averages, but its Price/Sales multiple is elevated compared to peers like MPC (implied P/S ~0.8) and VLO (~0.7), suggesting potential overvaluation on revenue efficiency grounds
Positives
- P/E of 22.48 is in line with sector average of 22.54, suggesting no premium for outperformance
- Forward P/E of 21.76 indicates slight earnings growth expectations priced in
Watchpoints
- Lack of EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue data limits deep value assessment, common red flag for midstream firms with complex capital structures
- Price/Sales of 3.72 is high for a low-margin, capital-intensive sector, especially with flat earnings growth
Future
65/100
Despite strong revenue trajectory and improving EPS trends, price momentum has stalled (6M change: -0.2%), suggesting market skepticism about sustained earnings recovery and cash flow durability
Positives
- 12.1% YoY revenue growth is the strongest among peer group, driven by volume recovery and tariff adjustments
- Recent Q/Q EPS growth of +3.6% and YoY EPS growth of +16.0% suggest earnings momentum may be reaccelerating
Watchpoints
- Earnings growth (0.3% YoY) remains disconnected from revenue growth, indicating margin or cost headwinds
- Forward P/E of 21.76 implies limited multiple expansion unless growth accelerates
Past
72/100
KMI has delivered strong long-term shareholder returns (+168.4% over 5Y) and margin stability, but recent earnings misses and erratic EPS performance undermine confidence in forward guidance
Positives
- Consistent profitability with stable operating and gross margins over time
- 5-year share price return of +168.4% reflects strong long-term capital appreciation, outperforming most peers except VLO (+138%)
Watchpoints
- Earnings surprises have been negative in 3 of last 4 quarters, with an average miss of -2.29%, indicating weakening predictability
- EPS volatility evident in 2021–2022 range ($0.22–$0.60), raising concerns about sustainability of high earnings
Health
58/100
KMI’s financial health is weaker than sector peers, with above-average leverage and critically low liquidity ratios, increasing vulnerability to interest rate hikes or commodity volatility
Positives
- Debt/Equity of 1.02, while high, is manageable for a midstream MLP-turned-C-corp with stable cash flows
- No reported cash burn, and midstream assets typically generate predictable operating cash flow
Watchpoints
- Current ratio of 0.63 and quick ratio of 0.40 are well below peers (e.g., VLO 1.1, MPC 1.3), signaling working capital strain
- Lack of total debt and cash figures prevents full solvency analysis, but D/E >1x with low liquidity increases refinancing risk
Dividend
76/100
The dividend is a key investor attraction, but its sustainability is questionable given the near-full earnings payout, especially amid rising debt and weak liquidity
Positives
- 4.27% dividend yield is highly competitive within the energy sector and provides strong income appeal
- Dividend has been maintained consistently, reflecting management’s commitment to shareholder returns
Watchpoints
- Payout ratio of 95.08% is dangerously high, leaving little room for error in cash flow generation
- No data on 5-year average yield or growth trend, limiting visibility into policy consistency
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$27.42
Analyst Target
$31.15
Upside/Downside
+13.6%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for KMI and closest competitors.
Updated 2025-11-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
Primary
|
+168.4% | +73.3% | +7.0% | -0.2% | +0.4% | +3.3% |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Peer
|
+464.9% | +77.0% | +29.4% | +23.2% | +8.8% | +3.2% |
|
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
Peer
|
+209.8% | -15.3% | -15.5% | -2.7% | +2.6% | +4.7% |
|
PSX
Phillips 66
Peer
|
+174.0% | +42.8% | +13.8% | +15.4% | +9.8% | +3.2% |
|
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
Peer
|
+296.3% | +41.8% | +34.1% | +36.1% | +12.9% | +3.5% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
22.48
Forward P/E
21.76
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
1.98
P/S Ratio
3.72
EV/Revenue
5.78
EV/EBITDA
13.84
Market Cap
$61.0B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
16.61%
Operating Margin
25.64%
Gross Margin
49.12%
ROE
8.88%
ROA
3.93%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+12.1%
Earnings Growth
+0.3%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+0.5%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.02
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.63
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.4
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.03
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-01-21
$N/A
2025-10-22
$0.29
-2.8% surprise
2025-07-16
$0.28
+0.8% surprise
2025-04-16
$0.34
-4.8% surprise
Energy Sector Comparison
Comparing KMI against 8 companies in the Energy sector
(1 bullish, 7 neutral, 0 bearish)
P/E Ratio
22.48
This Stock
vs
22.53
Sector Avg
-0.2%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
8.88%
This Stock
vs
11.88%
Sector Avg
-25.2%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
16.61%
This Stock
vs
9.64%
Sector Avg
+72.2%
(Superior)
Debt to Equity
1.02
This Stock
vs
0.62
Sector Avg
+65.4%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
12.1%
This Stock
vs
1.61%
Sector Avg
+650.4%
(Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
0.63
This Stock
vs
1.28
Sector Avg
-50.8%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
KMI
Kinder Morgan, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $61.0B | 22.48 | 8.9% | 16.6% | $27.42 | |
|
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $60.11B | 21.27 | 18.9% | 2.2% | $199.98 | |
|
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc.
|
BULLISH | $59.9B | 10.96 | 18.5% | 24.4% | $110.4 | |
|
PSX
Phillips 66
|
NEUTRAL | $57.34B | 38.36 | 5.6% | 1.1% | $142.32 | |
|
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $55.44B | 37.71 | 5.2% | 1.3% | $181.76 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 | SCHLOSSER JOHN W | Officer | Sale | 6,166 | $166,482 |
| 2025-10-31 | CHRONIS AMY W | Director | Purchase | 4,287 | $112,443 |
| 2025-10-27 | KINDER RICHARD D | Officer, Director and Beneficial Owner | Purchase | 1,000,000 | $25,964,900 |
| 2025-10-06 | SCHLOSSER JOHN W | Officer | Sale | 6,166 | $173,709 |
| 2025-09-15 | GRAHMANN KEVIN P | Officer | Sale | 23,867 | $658,908 |
| 2025-09-08 | SCHLOSSER JOHN W | Officer | Sale | 6,166 | $166,482 |
| 2025-08-11 | SANDERS DAX A | Officer | Sale | 30,127 | $814,999 |
| 2025-08-05 | SCHLOSSER JOHN W | Officer | Sale | 6,166 | $171,446 |
| 2025-08-04 | MICHELS DAVID PATRICK | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 40,000 | $1,127,716 |
| 2025-08-01 | MODY SITAL K | Officer | Sale | 45,549 | $1,273,596 |
| 2025-07-31 | HOLLAND JAMES E | Officer | Stock Award | 108,319 | - |
| 2025-07-31 | GRAHMANN KEVIN P | Officer | Stock Award | 34,663 | - |
| 2025-07-31 | DANG KIMBERLY A | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 288,851 | - |
| 2025-07-31 | MARTIN THOMAS A | President | Stock Award | 382,572 | - |
| 2025-07-31 | JAMES CATHERINE C | General Counsel | Stock Award | 51,994 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
20 analysts
Mizuho
2025-11-14
Outperform
Outperform
RBC Capital
2025-11-13
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
Stifel
2025-11-11
Hold
Hold
Jefferies
2025-10-09
Hold
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-01
Equal-Weight
Equal-Weight
Scotiabank
2025-09-19
Sector Perform
Sector Perform
BMO Capital
2025-09-19
Outperform
Stifel
2025-08-14
Hold
Hold
JP Morgan
2025-07-28
Neutral
Neutral
Wolfe Research
2025-07-25
Peer Perform
Outperform