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KREF

BEARISH
$6.25 Live
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. · NYSE
Target $7.0 (+12.0%)
$5.25 52W Range $9.98

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AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
KREF exhibits severe financial distress, highlighted by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and a catastrophic payout ratio of 588.24%. While the stock trades at a deep discount to book value (P/B 0.47), the negative ROE (-8.10%) and massive EPS collapse (-536.4% Q/Q) suggest a value trap rather than a bargain. The combination of high leverage (Debt/Equity 3.90) and a 0/100 technical trend indicates strong downward momentum. Despite a 'Buy' analyst consensus, the deterministic health metrics signal high risk of dividend cuts or further capital erosion.

Key Strengths

Deep discount to book value (P/B 0.47)
Strong current ratio (6.14) suggesting short-term liquidity
Analyst target price ($7.00) provides a modest upside from current levels
High current dividend yield (6.40%)
Strong backing/association with KKR

Key Risks

Unsustainable dividend payout ratio (588.24%)
Severe earnings deterioration (YoY EPS growth -484%)
Weak financial health (Piotroski F-Score 2/9)
High leverage with Debt/Equity at 3.90
Bearish technical trend (0/100) and negative long-term price performance
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$6.5
+4.0% above current price

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