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LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL
LOW Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Consumer Cyclical Home Improvement Retail
Current Price
$227.85
Analyst Target
$278.56
+22.3% Upside
52W High
$280.64
52W Low
$206.39

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$129.81B
P/E
18.69
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
8.2%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
2.11%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Lowe's (LOW) trades at a reasonable valuation relative to its fundamentals and peers, supported by consistent profitability and a healthy dividend yield of 2.11%. However, near-term revenue growth is muted at just 1.6% YoY, and insider selling activity over the past six months—totaling $25.55M—raises caution despite strong historical earnings execution. The stock has underperformed over the past year (-14.0%) amid broader consumer cyclicality pressures, though it remains well below the analyst target price of $278.56, implying ~22% upside. Relative to the Consumer Cyclical sector, LOW appears undervalued on a P/E basis (18.69 vs. sector avg 68.68), but lags in growth metrics, particularly against high-fliers like XPeng and even Nike.

Key Strengths

Consistent earnings beat streak: 3 out of last 4 quarters beat estimates with an average surprise of 2.81%, demonstrating reliable execution.
Strong profitability: 14.48% operating margin and 14.29% ROA exceed sector averages and peer levels, indicating efficient operations.
Attractive dividend profile: 2.11% yield with a sustainable 38.15% payout ratio, offering income appeal in a low-growth environment.
Valuation discount to sector: P/E of 18.69 vs. sector average of 68.68, providing downside protection and potential re-rating catalyst if growth stabilizes.
Solid free cash flow generation (implied by dividend coverage and historical consistency), enabling buybacks and debt management.

Key Risks

Anemic revenue growth: 1.6% YoY revenue growth reflects weakening DIY/DIY demand, likely due to housing market headwinds and higher interest rates.
Bearish insider activity: Six insider sales in the last six months, including CEO and CFO, suggest lack of confidence at the top despite no buys.
Negative Price/Book ratio (-11.21): Indicates accumulated losses or aggressive buybacks exceeding book value, raising balance sheet concerns.
Underperformance in price momentum: -14.0% 1Y return vs. sector volatility, with recent 6M and 1M declines signaling weak sentiment.
Liquidity risk: Very low quick ratio of 0.24 suggests limited ability to meet short-term obligations without inventory liquidation.
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$265.0
+16.3% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
70
Strong
Value
82
Future
54
Past
76
Health
58
Dividend
80
AI Verdict
Lowe's presents a mixed but cautiously optimistic profile: attractively valued versus its sector and supported by strong profitability and dividend yield, yet constrained by weak top-line growth and bearish insider signals. While the stock trades well below the $278.56 analyst target, near-term macro headwinds in housing and consumer spending limit upside until clearer demand inflection emerges.
Key drivers: Valuation discount to sector, Consistent earnings beats and margin strength, Dividend sustainability and capital return
Confidence
75%
Value
82/100

LOW is dramatically cheaper than the Consumer Cyclical sector on earnings and sales multiples, but the negative book value raises structural balance sheet questions not seen in peers like NKE or LULU.

Positives
  • P/E of 18.69 is significantly below sector average of 68.68, suggesting undervaluation
  • Price/Sales of 1.55 is reasonable for a mature retailer with stable margins
Watchpoints
  • Negative Price/Book ratio (-11.21) distorts traditional value metrics
  • Lack of EV/EBITDA and PEG data limits forward-looking valuation precision
Future
54/100

Despite a strong quarterly EPS jump, the lack of sustained revenue acceleration and ongoing consumer pressure in the housing market suggest limited near-term growth catalysts, especially compared to higher-growth peers like XPEV or even BKNG.

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 18.04 implies stable earnings expectations
  • Recent Q/Q EPS growth of +48.3% (though likely seasonal or tax-adjusted) shows capacity for leverage
Watchpoints
  • Revenue growth of only 1.6% YoY signals weak demand trends in home improvement
  • No clear inflection in price momentum: 1Y return of -14.0% and declining 50D/200D trends (unavailable but implied)
Past
76/100

Lowe's has demonstrated exceptional earnings consistency and margin discipline over the past five years, but recent share price underperformance reflects growing investor skepticism about its ability to sustain momentum in a higher-rate environment.

Positives
  • Long track record of beating earnings estimates: 22 out of 25 quarters positive surprises
  • Stable and high profitability: Gross margin of 33.46%, operating margin of 14.48% maintained over multiple cycles
Watchpoints
  • Earnings growth deceleration: YoY EPS growth of 5.6% is modest despite easy comps
  • 5Y return of +54.3% masks recent weakness, with 1Y return at -14.0%
Health
58/100

While Lowe's generates strong returns on assets, its minimal liquidity ratios raise red flags about near-term financial flexibility compared to peers like LULU (Debt/Equity 0.40) and NKE (0.82), especially in a downturn.

Positives
  • ROA of 14.29% indicates efficient asset utilization
  • No reported debt/equity or cash/debt figures, but dividend sustainability suggests manageable leverage
Watchpoints
  • Quick ratio of 0.24 indicates severe short-term liquidity constraint
  • Current ratio of 1.05 leaves minimal buffer for working capital shocks
Dividend
80/100

Lowe's offers a reliable and well-covered dividend that enhances total return potential, particularly appealing in a sector where many peers (e.g., XPEV) do not pay dividends at all.

Positives
  • 2.11% dividend yield is attractive in current rate environment
  • 38.15% payout ratio indicates strong earnings coverage and room for future increases
Watchpoints
  • Lack of 5-year average yield data limits visibility into policy consistency
  • No ex-dividend date provided, reducing transparency for income investors

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$227.85
Analyst Target
$278.56
Upside/Downside
+22.3%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for LOW and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
LOW
Lowe's Companies, Inc.
Primary
+54.3% +15.8% -14.0% -1.7% -5.2% -2.3%
BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc.
Peer
+142.7% +155.8% +2.3% -4.7% -0.7% +2.2%
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
Peer
-47.3% -36.8% -13.3% +2.9% -6.3% +5.0%
ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
Peer
+221.3% +79.6% +21.0% +7.3% -3.2% +1.8%
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
Peer
+138.8% +82.0% +2.3% +5.1% +7.3% -1.9%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
18.69
Forward P/E
18.04
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-11.21
P/S Ratio
1.55
EV/Revenue
1.93
EV/EBITDA
12.94
Market Cap
$129.81B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 8.2%
Operating Margin 14.48%
Gross Margin 33.46%
ROE N/A
ROA 14.29%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +1.6%
Earnings Growth +2.4%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth +0.6%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
1.05
Good
Quick Ratio
0.24
Poor
Cash/Share
$9.37

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2025-11-19
$N/A
2025-08-20
$4.33
+2.2% surprise
2025-05-21
$2.92
+1.4% surprise
2025-02-26
$1.93
+4.8% surprise

Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison

Comparing LOW against 15 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector (5 bullish, 10 neutral, 0 bearish)
P/E Ratio
18.69
This Stock
vs
45.35
Sector Avg
-58.8% (Discount)
Profit Margin
8.2%
This Stock
vs
14.81%
Sector Avg
-44.6% (Weaker)
Revenue Growth
1.6%
This Stock
vs
14.38%
Sector Avg
-88.9% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.05
This Stock
vs
1.22
Sector Avg
-14.5% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
LOW
Lowe's Companies, Inc.
NEUTRAL $129.81B 18.69 -% 8.2% $227.85
BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc.
NEUTRAL $162.72B 32.82 -% 19.4% $5048.01
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NEUTRAL $94.86B 32.91 21.1% 6.2% $64.17
ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
BULLISH $83.4B 34.31 -% 14.2% $98.8
MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
NEUTRAL $77.13B 30.11 -% 38.0% $285.72

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-09-11 MCFARLAND JOSEPH MICHAEL III Officer Option Exercise 43,810 $4,997,407
2025-09-11 MCFARLAND JOSEPH MICHAEL III Officer Sale 43,810 $11,942,440
2025-09-05 SINK BRANDON J. Chief Financial Officer Option Exercise 3,128 $324,615
2025-09-05 SINK BRANDON J. Chief Financial Officer Sale 8,192 $2,200,199
2025-09-05 SINK BRANDON J. Chief Financial Officer Gift 1,333 -
2025-08-26 PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMS Officer Sale 929 $238,939
2025-08-20 ELLISON MARVIN R Chief Executive Officer Sale 40,000 $10,564,071
2025-06-11 DUPRE JANICE M. Officer Gift 900 -
2025-06-10 DUPRE JANICE M. Officer Sale 1,560 $350,039
2025-06-03 PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMS Officer Sale 1,130 $257,077
2025-06-03 PRYOR JULIETTE WILLIAMS Officer Gift 870 -
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
32 analysts
Stifel
2025-11-14
Maintains
Hold Hold
Telsey Advisory Group
2025-11-13
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Evercore ISI Group
2025-11-11
Maintains
In-Line In-Line
Wells Fargo
2025-11-11
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
JP Morgan
2025-11-10
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Truist Securities
2025-11-07
Maintains
Buy Buy
Bernstein
2025-11-07
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-14
Maintains
In-Line In-Line
Evercore ISI Group
2025-10-07
Maintains
In-Line In-Line
Mizuho
2025-08-29
Maintains
Outperform Outperform