MCD McDonald's Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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MCD Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Consumer Cyclical
Restaurants
Current Price
Live
$307.43
Analyst Target
$332.87
+8.3%
Upside
52W High
$326.32
52W Low
$278.73
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 17, 2026
Market cap
$219.38B
P/E
26.21
ROE
N/A
Profit margin
32.0%
Debt/Equity
N/A
Dividend yield
2.41%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
McDonald's Corporation exhibits a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating marginal financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full distress risk assessment. Despite strong profitability metrics—such as a 46.91% operating margin and 32.04% profit margin—growth is sluggish with only 3.00% YoY revenue growth and declining YoY EPS. Valuation appears stretched relative to peers with a P/E of 26.21, though below the sector average of 37.51, and the stock trades well above its intrinsic value estimate of $110.26, suggesting limited margin of safety. Insider selling and a bearish technical trend further temper optimism despite a favorable analyst recommendation.
Key Strengths
Exceptional profitability with 46.91% operating margin and 32.04% net margin
Strong brand positioning and global scale in the consumer cyclical sector
Solid dividend yield of 2.41% with a sustainable 60.41% payout ratio
Market leader with high cash flow generation capacity (despite missing data)
Trading below sector average P/E of 37.51 despite superior margins
Key Risks
Low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals weak financial health and operational momentum
Significant insider selling: $16.16M in net sales over last 6 months
Elevated valuation with P/E of 26.21 and no Graham Number, trading far above intrinsic value of $110.26
Sluggish growth: only 3.00% YoY revenue growth and -0.3% YoY EPS decline
Negative technical trend (0/100) and deteriorating recent earnings surprises
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$110.26
-64.1% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
53
Moderate
45
50
60
40
70
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside risks due to valuation and insider activity
Key drivers: High profitability, Low Piotroski score, Rich valuation, Insider selling, Stable dividend
Confidence
70%
Value
45/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 26.21 below sector average of 37.51
- Forward P/E of 23.21 suggests some earnings growth priced in
Watchpoints
- Current price ($307.43) significantly above intrinsic value ($110.26)
- Price/Book of -101.23 indicates negative book value, a red flag
- No Graham Number available, limiting value assessment
Future
50/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- Forward P/E implies expected earnings improvement
- Analyst target price of $332.87 suggests 8.3% upside
Watchpoints
- Revenue growth of 3.00% YoY is below sector average of 12.82%
- Earnings growth of 1.60% YoY is minimal
- Recent Q/Q EPS growth of +0.9%, but YoY EPS down -0.3%
Past
60/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- Historically strong earnings surprises (e.g., +13.7% in Q3 2023)
- 5-year price return of +64.8% outperforms many peers
- Consistent profitability over time
Watchpoints
- Last 4 quarters beat estimates only once
- Average earnings surprise of -0.66% over last 4 quarters
- Recent quarters show declining EPS momentum
Health
40/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- ROA of 12.97% is strong
- Current ratio of 1.00 indicates short-term solvency
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates weak financial health
- Quick ratio of 0.82 < 1.0 signals liquidity pressure
- No Altman Z-Score provided; debt/equity and ROIC missing
Dividend
70/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend yield of 2.41% is attractive in current market
- Payout ratio of 60.41% is sustainable for a mature company
- Dividend strength score of 50/100 indicates moderate reliability
Watchpoints
- No 5-year average yield data to assess consistency
- No ex-dividend date provided, limiting tactical clarity
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$307.43
Analyst Target
$332.87
Upside/Downside
+8.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MCD and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-16
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
Primary
|
+64.8% | +20.2% | +12.5% | +4.7% | -3.5% | +0.0% |
|
TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
Peer
|
+152.3% | +101.2% | +31.3% | +29.6% | +1.1% | -0.3% |
|
BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc.
Peer
|
+156.7% | +115.7% | +6.6% | -9.2% | -6.4% | -0.3% |
|
LOW
Lowe's Companies, Inc.
Peer
|
+77.6% | +40.6% | +9.4% | +27.9% | +11.9% | +3.9% |
|
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
Peer
|
+77.3% | +72.2% | +30.0% | +37.2% | +8.0% | +4.5% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
26.21
Forward P/E
23.21
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
-101.23
P/S Ratio
8.35
EV/Revenue
10.37
EV/EBITDA
19.06
Market Cap
$219.38B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
32.04%
Operating Margin
46.91%
Gross Margin
57.43%
ROE
N/A
ROA
12.97%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+3.0%
Earnings Growth
+1.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+1.0%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
N/A
Current Ratio
1.0
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.82
Poor
Cash/Share
$3.39
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-02-11
$N/A
2025-11-05
$3.22
-3.4% surprise
2025-08-06
$3.19
+1.4% surprise
2025-05-01
$2.67
-0.0% surprise
Consumer Cyclical Sector Comparison
Comparing MCD against 94 companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector
(5 bullish, 49 neutral, 40 bearish)
P/E Ratio
26.21
This Stock
vs
42.97
Sector Avg
-39.0%
(Discount)
Profit Margin
32.04%
This Stock
vs
0.78%
Sector Avg
+4008.8%
(Superior)
Revenue Growth
3.0%
This Stock
vs
7.65%
Sector Avg
-60.8%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.0
This Stock
vs
1.88
Sector Avg
-46.8%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $219.38B | 26.21 | -% | 32.0% | $307.43 | |
|
TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $175.15B | 34.74 | 58.4% | 8.7% | $157.38 | |
|
BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $165.24B | 33.22 | -% | 19.4% | $5098.5 | |
|
LOW
Lowe's Companies, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $155.69B | 22.98 | -% | 8.0% | $277.55 | |
|
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $303.04B | 10.38 | 12.9% | 9.4% | $231.42 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | ERLINGER JOSEPH M | Officer | Option Exercise | 2,626 | $414,357 |
| 2026-01-12 | ERLINGER JOSEPH M | Officer | Sale | 2,626 | $805,079 |
| 2025-12-16 | RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN | Officer | Sale | 2,486 | $795,520 |
| 2025-12-12 | FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN | Officer | Sale | 658 | $207,270 |
| 2025-12-01 | STEIJAERT MANUEL JM | Officer | Option Exercise | 6,567 | $1,748,135 |
| 2025-12-01 | STEIJAERT MANUEL JM | Officer | Sale | 6,567 | $2,006,218 |
| 2025-11-21 | BORDEN IAN FREDERICK | Chief Financial Officer | Option Exercise | 17,134 | $2,000,052 |
| 2025-11-21 | BORDEN IAN FREDERICK | Chief Financial Officer | Sale | 17,134 | $5,311,540 |
| 2025-11-20 | ERLINGER JOSEPH M | Officer | Gift | 690 | - |
| 2025-11-14 | ERLINGER JOSEPH M | Officer | Sale | 3,195 | $977,095 |
| 2025-11-05 | STEIJAERT MANUEL JM | Officer | Option Exercise | 13,134 | $3,373,538 |
| 2025-11-05 | STEIJAERT MANUEL JM | Officer | Sale | 13,134 | $3,945,716 |
| 2025-10-14 | RICE BRIAN S | Chief Technology Officer | Gift | 8,789 | - |
| 2025-09-02 | FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN | Officer | Sale | 1,000 | $315,000 |
| 2025-08-29 | RICE BRIAN S | Officer | Stock Award | 5,902 | - |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
31 analysts
Keybanc
2026-01-09
Overweight
Overweight
Truist Securities
2026-01-08
Buy
Buy
TD Cowen
2026-01-08
Hold
Hold
Barclays
2026-01-07
Overweight
Overweight
Oppenheimer
2026-01-06
Perform
Outperform
Guggenheim
2025-11-19
Neutral
Neutral
Baird
2025-11-06
Neutral
Neutral
Wells Fargo
2025-11-06
Overweight
Overweight
Barclays
2025-11-06
Overweight
Overweight
Mizuho
2025-10-28
Neutral
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning MCD from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.