MOH Molina Healthcare, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

BEARISH

MOH Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights

NYSE • Healthcare • Healthcare Plans

Current Price Live

$191.4

Analyst Target

$185.38

-3.1% Downside

52W High

$359.97

52W Low

$133.4

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AI Analysis

Confidence Score

78%

Analysis Accuracy

The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, indicating stable but not strong financial health, while the absence of an Altman Z-Score prevents a full solvency risk assessment. Despite a reasonable P/E of 11.79 and solid revenue growth of 11.60%, earnings have collapsed year-over-year (-73.40%) and quarter-over-quarter (-75.80%), raising serious concerns about profitability sustainability. The stock trades above both the Graham Number ($173.28) and intrinsic value estimate ($113.68), implying overvaluation, further exacerbated by deteriorating earnings momentum and negative insider activity. Analysts concur with a 'hold' rating, but weak recent earnings surprises and declining ROE trends suggest downside risk.

Key Strengths

Revenue growth of 11.60% YoY outpaces sector average of 9.80%, indicating strong top-line expansion.

Current ratio of 1.68 and quick ratio of 1.60 suggest solid short-term liquidity and ability to meet obligations.

ROE of 19.71% exceeds sector average of 25.54% only slightly, but remains in healthy territory despite recent declines.

Debt/Equity ratio of 0.92 is in line with sector average, indicating typical leverage for the industry.

Price/Sales of 0.24 is significantly below sector peers, suggesting potential undervaluation on revenue basis.

Key Risks

Earnings growth has sharply declined (-73.40% YoY, -75.80% QoQ), signaling severe profitability deterioration.

Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates only moderate financial strength with recent negative trends in earnings and margins.

Insider selling activity (2 sell transactions, $0.16M value) reflects bearish sentiment from corporate insiders.

Stock price ($191.40) trades well above Graham Number ($173.28) and intrinsic value ($113.68), indicating overvaluation.

Recent earnings misses: 1 beat in last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -17.19%, reflecting declining earnings quality.

AI Fair Value Estimate

Based on comprehensive analysis

$165.0

-13.8% below current price

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Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis

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