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MRP

NEUTRAL
$30.49 Live
Millrose Properties, Inc. · NYSE
Target $38.6 (+26.6%)
$25.0 52W Range $36.0
Overview AI Snowflake Price Valuation Profitability Growth Health Statements Peers Insiders SEC Filings

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Apr 30, 2026
Market cap
$5.06B
P/E
12.5
ROE
7.4%
Profit margin
67.4%
Debt/Equity
0.36
Dividend yield
9.97%

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
MRP exhibits strong fundamental health with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a conservative Debt/Equity ratio of 0.36, significantly outperforming sector averages. While the stock is undervalued relative to its Graham Number ($44.01) and Book Value (P/B 0.86), this value is offset by a critical dividend sustainability issue with a payout ratio of 104.51%. Furthermore, the company has failed to beat earnings estimates in the last four quarters, and the technical trend is currently bearish (0/100), suggesting a disconnect between asset value and operational momentum.

Key Strengths

Strong financial health indicated by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9
Very low leverage (Debt/Equity 0.36) compared to REIT sector average (2.40)
Trading at a discount to book value (P/B 0.86) and Graham Number ($44.01)
Exceptionally high operating and profit margins (84.82% and 67.42%)
Low P/E ratio (12.50) relative to the sector average (40.29)

Key Risks

Unsustainable dividend payout ratio of 104.51%, indicating dividends exceed earnings
Poor earnings track record with 0/4 beats in the last four quarters
Severe bearish technical trend (0/100 score)
Low Return on Equity (7.35%) suggesting inefficient use of shareholder capital
Significant gap between Graham Number ($44.01) and Growth-based Intrinsic Value ($17.08)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$32.5
+6.6% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
60
Strong
Value
85
Future
35
Past
70
Health
90
Dividend
20
AI Verdict
Value Trap Risk
Key drivers: Strong Balance Sheet, Asset Undervaluation, Dividend Instability, Earnings Misses
Confidence
90%
Value
85/100

Ref P/E 12.50, P/B 0.86, Graham Number $44.01

Positives
  • P/B < 1.0
  • Price < Graham Number
  • P/E significantly below sector average
Watchpoints
  • Intrinsic value based on growth is much lower than current price
Future
35/100

Ref Earnings track record and Technical Trend

Positives
  • Positive Q/Q revenue growth (53.23%)
Watchpoints
  • Consistent earnings misses
  • Low ROE
  • Bearish technicals
Past
70/100

Ref Historical price performance

Positives
  • Strong 1Y return (+34.6%)
  • Consistent long-term growth (5Y +55.7%)
Watchpoints
  • Recent 6-month stagnation
Health
90/100

Ref Piotroski F-Score and Debt/Equity

Positives
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
  • Very low Debt/Equity
  • High Current Ratio
Watchpoints
  • Low Quick Ratio (0.20) suggests liquidity is tied up in non-cash assets
Dividend
20/100

Ref Yield 9.97%, Payout 104.51%

Positives
  • High absolute yield (9.97%)
Watchpoints
  • Payout ratio > 100% is a major red flag for dividend cuts

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$30.49
Analyst Target
$38.6
Upside/Downside
+26.6%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for MRP and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-29
MRP
Millrose Properties, Inc.
Primary
5Y
+55.7%
3Y
+55.7%
1Y
+34.6%
6M
+0.1%
1M
+14.8%
1W
-0.4%
SBR
Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+67.9%
3Y
+127.0%
1Y
+25.0%
6M
+19.2%
1M
+5.5%
1W
+2.1%
KRG
Kite Realty Group Trust
Peer
5Y
+56.7%
3Y
+46.1%
1Y
+26.2%
6M
+19.0%
1M
+8.2%
1W
-0.0%
PEC
Phillips Edison & Company, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+695.5%
3Y
+36.7%
1Y
+13.4%
6M
+16.3%
1M
+2.7%
1W
+1.0%
OPE
Opendoor Technologies Inc.
Peer
5Y
-73.8%
3Y
+175.4%
1Y
+426.2%
6M
-34.7%
1M
-7.0%
1W
+3.9%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
12.5
Forward P/E
9.65
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.86
P/S Ratio
8.43
EV/Revenue
11.91
EV/EBITDA
N/A
Market Cap
$5.06B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 67.42%
Operating Margin 84.82%
Gross Margin 85.39%
ROE 7.35%
ROA 4.13%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth N/A
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth +53.23%
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.36
Low debt
Current Ratio
53.56
Strong
Quick Ratio
0.2
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.21

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.2B
Gross Margin
85.3%
Op. Margin
84.8%
Net Margin
64.5%
Total Assets
$9.3B
Liabilities
$3.4B
Equity
$5.9B
Debt/Equity
0.58x
Operating CF
$3.4B
Free Cash Flow
$4.3B
FCF Yield
125%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-13
$N/A
2026-02-26
$0.74
2025-10-23
$0.63
-1.6% surprise
2025-07-31
$0.68
-4.2% surprise

Real Estate Sector Comparison

Comparing MRP against 197 companies in the Real Estate sector (9 bullish, 41 neutral, 147 bearish)
P/E Ratio
12.5
This Stock
vs
40.06
Sector Avg
-68.8% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
7.35%
This Stock
vs
-28.9%
Sector Avg
-125.4% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
67.42%
This Stock
vs
11.67%
Sector Avg
+477.6% (Superior)
Debt to Equity
0.36
This Stock
vs
2.39
Sector Avg
-84.8% (Less Debt)
Current Ratio
53.56
This Stock
vs
8.76
Sector Avg
+511.6% (Stronger)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

MRP Millrose Properties, Inc.
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$5.1B
P/E
12.5
ROE
7.4%
Price
$30.49
SBRA Sabra Health...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$5.2B
P/E
32.0
ROE
5.6%
Price
$20.51
 Compare with MRP
KRG Kite Realty Group Trust
NEUTRAL
Mkt Cap
$5.3B
P/E
19.1
ROE
9.3%
Price
$26.15
 Compare with MRP
PECO Phillips...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$5.4B
P/E
43.7
ROE
4.7%
Price
$38.87
 Compare with MRP
OPEN Opendoor...
BEARISH
Mkt Cap
$4.6B
P/E
-
ROE
-151.3%
Price
$4.82
 Compare with MRP

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

GORSON MATTHEW B.
Director
Buy
2026-03-05
1,000 shares · $30,665
LYNCH KATHLEEN B
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-10
6,451 shares
MINCEY MARY ALISON
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-10
6,451 shares
GORSON MATTHEW B.
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-10
6,451 shares
MIGOYA CARLOS A
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-10
6,451 shares
BARTELS PATRICK J. JR.
Director
Stock Award
2025-12-10
6,451 shares
MIGOYA CARLOS A
Director
Buy
2025-11-26
219 shares · $6,712
LYNCH KATHLEEN B
Director
Buy
2025-11-24
1,860 shares · $59,033
MIGOYA CARLOS A
Director
Buy
2025-11-12
1,000 shares · $32,236
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2026-04-02

MRP filed a definitive proxy statement on April 2, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information and voting materials for an upcoming meeting.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-27

MRP likely filed this 8-K to announce its first-quarter financial results for the period ending March 2026.

8-K
8-K
2026-03-23
10-K
10-K
2026-03-02

MRP submitted its 10-K filing on March 2, 2026, which includes detailed disclosures regarding its business operations and financial condition. The report provides comprehensive analysis within the Management’s Discussion and Analysis and Risk Factors sections to outline the company's operational results and potential vulnerabilities.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-27

MRP likely reported its financial results for the fiscal period ending December 31, 2025.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-26

MRP filed an 8-K on February 26, 2026, likely to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-12-22
10-Q
10-Q
2025-10-23

MRP's subsidiaries have issued promissory notes to Millrose, secured by 100% of membership interests in Property LLCs and unrecorded mortgages on real property assets. Financial obligations include the potential for additional notes upon land acquisition and the requirement to record mortgages upon request. These arrangements create significant liens on the company's real estate portfolio and equity interests.

8-K
8-K
2025-10-23

MRP filed an 8-K on October 23, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-10-09

MRP filed an 8-K on October 9, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-09-22
8-K
8-K
2025-09-12
8-K
8-K
2025-09-09
8-K
8-K
2025-09-08
8-K
8-K
2025-08-08
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning MRP from our newsroom.

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