NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation - Fundamental Analysis
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NOC Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
Industrials
Aerospace & Defense
Current Price
Live
$666.9
Analyst Target
$672.87
+0.9%
Upside
52W High
$669.68
52W Low
$426.24
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Jan 17, 2026
Market cap
$95.49B
P/E
24.02
ROE
26.2%
Profit margin
9.8%
Debt/Equity
1.09
Dividend yield
1.41%
AI Analysis
AI-powered fundamental assessment
Confidence
65%
The Advanced Deterministic Scorecard reveals a weak financial health profile with a Piotroski F-Score of just 3/9, indicating significant operational or balance sheet concerns. Despite strong historical price performance and solid profitability metrics like a 26.15% ROE, the company faces near-term earnings volatility, insider selling pressure, and trades at a premium to both its Graham Number ($264.45) and intrinsic value estimate ($594.06), limiting margin of safety. While analyst consensus supports a 'buy' recommendation and earnings growth remains positive year-over-year, weakening quarterly EPS trends and lack of key financial data (e.g., Altman Z-Score, cash/debt figures) increase uncertainty. The stock's premium valuation relative to peers and deteriorating insider sentiment counterbalance its strong return metrics and sector tailwinds.
Key Strengths
High ROE of 26.15% indicates efficient use of shareholder equity
Strong year-over-year earnings growth of 9.6% and revenue growth of 4.3%
Conservative dividend payout ratio of 31.47% supports sustainability
Superior historical total returns: +143% over 5 years and +41% in the last year
Profitability margins (gross, operating, net) exceed sector averages
Key Risks
Very low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signals weak financial health and potential deterioration in fundamentals
Insider selling activity: $6.15M in net sales over last 6 months, suggesting lack of confidence from executives
Stock trades at a premium to both Graham Number ($264.45) and intrinsic value ($594.06), with current price at $666.90
Recent Q/Q EPS decline of -5.9% and volatile earnings surprises, including a -47% miss in Q1 2025
Missing key financial data (Altman Z-Score, debt, cash, EV/EBITDA) raises transparency concerns
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$594.06
-10.9% below current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
53
Moderate
45
60
75
30
55
AI Verdict
Neutral with upside risk if execution improves
Key drivers: High profitability and ROE, Strong long-term price performance, Low Piotroski score and insider selling, Valuation premium to fair value models, Lack of Altman Z-Score and cash/debt transparency
Confidence
70%
Value
45/100
Ref P/E, PEG, Graham Number
Positives
- P/E of 24.02 is below sector average of 31.88
- Forward P/E of 23.10 suggests modest improvement
Watchpoints
- Price/Book of 5.96 is high, indicating rich valuation
- Current price ($666.90) significantly above Graham Number ($264.45)
- No PEG ratio due to uncertainty in growth assumptions
Future
60/100
Ref Growth rates
Positives
- 9.6% YoY earnings growth
- Positive long-term defense spending outlook
Watchpoints
- Q/Q EPS growth declined by -5.9%
- Earnings surprise trend is volatile, with recent -47% miss
Past
75/100
Ref Historical trends
Positives
- 5-Year price return of +143% outperforms peers
- Consistent revenue and earnings growth over multiple years
- History of beating earnings estimates in 18 of 25 quarters
Watchpoints
- Recent earnings misses in 2025 Q1 and mixed Q4 performance
Health
30/100
Ref Altman Z-Score, Piotroski F-Score
Positives
- ROA of 6.53% is stable
- Current ratio of 1.11 shows minimal short-term liquidity risk
Watchpoints
- Piotroski F-Score of only 3/9 indicates weak financial health
- Quick ratio of 0.92 suggests near-term liquidity pressure
- Debt/Equity of 1.09 is moderate but lacks context without cash/debt data
- Altman Z-Score unavailable, increasing risk uncertainty
Dividend
55/100
Ref Yield, Payout
Positives
- Dividend payout ratio of 31.47% is sustainable
- Dividend yield of 1.41% provides modest income
Watchpoints
- Dividend Strength score of 40/100 indicates limited growth or consistency
- No 5-year average yield data available
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$666.9
Analyst Target
$672.87
Upside/Downside
+0.9%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for NOC and closest competitors.
Updated 2026-01-16
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Primary
|
+143.0% | +53.9% | +41.0% | +29.5% | +18.2% | +7.8% |
|
TT
Trane Technologies plc
Peer
|
+193.4% | +145.3% | +2.9% | -2.1% | -1.0% | -3.8% |
|
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
Peer
|
-15.9% | -30.4% | -12.1% | +11.7% | +5.9% | -1.1% |
|
MMM
3M Company
Peer
|
+42.7% | +77.2% | +22.8% | +10.5% | +3.5% | +1.6% |
|
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
Peer
|
+85.7% | +39.5% | -4.3% | -8.3% | -2.1% | +3.6% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
24.02
Forward P/E
23.1
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
5.96
P/S Ratio
2.33
EV/Revenue
2.71
EV/EBITDA
16.83
Market Cap
$95.49B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
9.82%
Operating Margin
13.22%
Gross Margin
19.42%
ROE
26.15%
ROA
6.53%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+4.3%
Earnings Growth
+9.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
+7.2%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
1.09
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.11
Good
Quick Ratio
0.92
Poor
Cash/Share
$13.71
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-01-27
$N/A
2025-10-21
$7.67
+18.8% surprise
2025-07-22
$8.15
+19.9% surprise
2025-04-22
$3.32
-47.0% surprise
Industrials Sector Comparison
Comparing NOC against 122 companies in the Industrials sector
(6 bullish, 58 neutral, 58 bearish)
P/E Ratio
24.02
This Stock
vs
73.3
Sector Avg
-67.2%
(Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
26.15%
This Stock
vs
7.81%
Sector Avg
+234.9%
(Excellent)
Profit Margin
9.82%
This Stock
vs
58.21%
Sector Avg
-83.1%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.09
This Stock
vs
5.47
Sector Avg
-80.0%
(Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
4.3%
This Stock
vs
21.73%
Sector Avg
-80.2%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
1.11
This Stock
vs
2.66
Sector Avg
-58.3%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $95.49B | 24.02 | 26.2% | 9.8% | $666.9 | |
|
TT
Trane Technologies plc
|
BULLISH | $92.72B | 31.95 | 37.2% | 13.9% | $418.16 | |
|
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $90.7B | 16.52 | 33.6% | 6.1% | $106.91 | |
|
MMM
3M Company
|
BEARISH | $89.38B | 26.81 | 72.9% | 13.7% | $167.8 | |
|
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $84.27B | 32.89 | 29.3% | 10.3% | $209.17 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | WARDEN KATHY J | Chief Executive Officer | Sale | 10,000 | $6,045,000 |
| 2025-12-31 | BROWN MARIANNE CATHERINE | Director | Stock Award | 81 | $46,187 |
| 2025-12-31 | KRISHNA ARVIND | Director | Stock Award | 64 | $36,493 |
| 2025-12-09 | ROEDER ROSHAN S. | Officer | Sale | 84 | $46,649 |
| 2025-12-05 | ROEDER ROSHAN S. | Officer | Stock Award | 328 | - |
| 2025-11-24 | WELSH MARK A. III | Director | Sale | 97 | $54,716 |
| 2025-09-30 | BROWN MARIANNE CATHERINE | Director | Stock Award | 76 | $46,308 |
| 2025-09-30 | KRISHNA ARVIND | Director | Stock Award | 59 | $35,950 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
21 analysts
UBS
2026-01-15
Buy
Buy
Citigroup
2026-01-13
Buy
Buy
Truist Securities
2026-01-09
Buy
Hold
Morgan Stanley
2025-12-16
Overweight
Overweight
Alembic Global
2025-12-15
Neutral
Overweight
Citigroup
2025-12-12
Buy
Bernstein
2025-10-23
Market Perform
Market Perform
UBS
2025-10-22
Buy
Buy
JP Morgan
2025-10-22
Neutral
Neutral
Susquehanna
2025-10-22
Positive
Positive
Past News Coverage
Recent headlines mentioning NOC from our newsroom.
Newest → oldest
No matching news yet.