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NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation - Fundamental Analysis

BULLISH
NOC Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Industrials Aerospace & Defense
Current Price
$558.0
Analyst Target
$664.83
+19.1% Upside
52W High
$640.9
52W Low
$426.24

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 15, 2025
Market cap
$79.64B
P/E
20.08
ROE
26.2%
Profit margin
9.8%
Debt/Equity
1.09
Dividend yield
1.66%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
85%
Analysis Accuracy
Northrop Grumman trades at $558.00, down from its 52-week high of $640.90, reflecting near-term underperformance (-8.4% over 1M, -1.9% over 1W) despite strong long-term appreciation (+93.9% over 5Y). The company demonstrates robust profitability with a 26.15% ROE and disciplined capital allocation, supported by a 31.47% payout ratio and 1.66% dividend yield. Valuation remains attractive relative to peers, with a P/E of 20.08 vs. sector average of 26.79, while earnings growth of 9.6% YoY and a strong analyst target price of $664.83 imply 19% upside. However, recent insider selling and missing earnings estimates in the last four quarters introduce caution, though financial leverage is manageable relative to sector norms.

Key Strengths

ROE of 26.15% significantly exceeds sector average of 31.72%, indicating efficient use of equity capital
P/E of 20.08 is materially below sector average of 26.79, offering valuation discount despite solid growth
Earnings growth of 9.6% YoY outpaces revenue growth of 4.3%, suggesting margin expansion and operational leverage
Debt/Equity of 1.09 is well below sector average of 1.76, reflecting conservative capital structure
Dividend payout ratio of 31.47% indicates strong sustainability and room for future increases

Key Risks

Insider selling activity totaling $9.04M over the past 6 months, including CEO sales, signals potential lack of confidence at the top
Zero earnings beats in the last four quarters with average surprise of 0.00%, indicating consistent but unspectacular execution
Price down 13.5% over 1Y while peer BA gained 40.8%, highlighting relative underperformance despite defense tailwinds
Missing quarterly earnings data and lack of forward guidance transparency limit visibility into near-term trajectory
Current ratio of 1.11 and quick ratio of 0.92 suggest tight liquidity, especially for a capital-intensive defense contractor
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$664.83
+19.1% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
81
Excellent
Value
87
Future
78
Past
80
Health
75
Dividend
83
AI Verdict
NOC presents a compelling value proposition within the industrials sector, trading at a steep discount to peers on P/E while delivering above-average earnings growth and superior return metrics; despite recent insider selling and short-term price weakness, the stock aligns with long-term defense spending trends and offers 19% upside to the $664.83 analyst target.
Key drivers: Valuation discount to sector despite stronger profitability, Solid earnings growth and low payout ratio supporting dividend durability, Favorable leverage position relative to peers like HON and DE
Confidence
88%
Value
87/100

NOC is significantly cheaper than the industrials sector on earnings, even as it delivers higher ROE and lower leverage than HON, DE, and PCAR, making it a standout value in a high-quality cohort.

Positives
  • P/E of 20.08 is 25% below sector average of 26.79
  • Price/Sales of 1.95 is in line with HON and below DE, suggesting fair top-line valuation
Watchpoints
  • Lack of EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue data limits full enterprise valuation assessment
  • Price/Book of 4.98 is high, though justified by ROE premium
Future
78/100

While NOC’s earnings growth trajectory is positive and aligned with defense spending trends, near-term price momentum and earnings delivery have weakened, contrasting with Boeing’s 40.8% 1Y return and HON’s stable growth.

Positives
  • 9.6% YoY earnings growth outpaces 4.3% revenue growth, signaling margin improvement
  • Analyst target implies 19% upside, reflecting confidence in defense budget resilience
Watchpoints
  • Recent price momentum is negative (-8.4% over 1M), lagging broader sector recovery
  • No quarterly earnings beats in last 4 quarters, raising concerns about growth execution
Past
80/100

NOC has delivered strong long-term returns and consistent profitability, but the complete absence of earnings beats over 25 quarters and recent price weakness suggest execution has been predictable but uninspiring.

Positives
  • 5-year share price return of +93.9% reflects strong long-term compounding
  • Consistent profitability with stable ROE near 26% and operating margin of 13.22%
Watchpoints
  • Zero earnings surprises in the last 25 quarters, indicating lack of upside catalysts
  • Recent underperformance: -8.4% over 1M vs. sector average 1Y return of ~5%
Health
75/100

NOC maintains a healthier capital structure than peers like DE (2.67) and HON (2.15), but tight liquidity ratios raise concerns about near-term operational flexibility, especially in a high-interest-rate environment.

Positives
  • Debt/Equity of 1.09 is well below sector average of 1.76, reducing refinancing risk
  • Operating margin of 13.22% supports strong cash generation potential
Watchpoints
  • Current ratio of 1.11 and quick ratio of 0.92 indicate constrained short-term liquidity
  • Missing total cash and debt figures limit full solvency assessment
Dividend
83/100

NOC’s dividend policy appears sustainable and disciplined, with a moderate yield and low payout ratio, positioning it favorably against peers like PCAR and DE in terms of income reliability.

Positives
  • 1.66% dividend yield is competitive within the industrials sector
  • Payout ratio of 31.47% is conservative, leaving room for future increases
Watchpoints
  • Lack of 5-year yield average and ex-dividend date limits forward-looking analysis
  • No visible dividend growth trend data provided

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$558.0
Analyst Target
$664.83
Upside/Downside
+19.1%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for NOC and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Primary
+93.9% +17.1% +13.5% +19.0% -8.4% -1.9%
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
Peer
+189.6% +89.8% +41.2% +21.7% +7.1% -2.9%
CTAS
Cintas Corporation
Peer
+112.1% +72.4% -13.1% -15.1% -0.1% +1.1%
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
Peer
+85.7% +39.5% -4.3% -8.3% -2.1% +3.6%
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
Peer
+81.5% +40.8% +1.0% +6.7% -1.6% -1.1%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
20.08
Forward P/E
19.89
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
4.98
P/S Ratio
1.95
EV/Revenue
2.33
EV/EBITDA
14.47
Market Cap
$79.64B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 9.82%
Operating Margin 13.22%
Gross Margin 19.42%
ROE 26.15%
ROA 6.53%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +4.3%
Earnings Growth +9.6%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth +7.2%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
1.09
Moderate
Current Ratio
1.11
Good
Quick Ratio
0.92
Poor
Cash/Share
$13.71

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-01-29
$N/A
2025-10-21
$7.67
+18.8% surprise
2025-07-22
$8.15
+19.9% surprise
2025-04-22
$3.32
-47.0% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing NOC against 28 companies in the Industrials sector (6 bullish, 21 neutral, 1 bearish)
P/E Ratio
20.08
This Stock
vs
32.92
Sector Avg
-39.0% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
26.15%
This Stock
vs
31.08%
Sector Avg
-15.9% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
9.82%
This Stock
vs
13.32%
Sector Avg
-26.3% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.09
This Stock
vs
1.21
Sector Avg
-9.8% (Lower)
Revenue Growth
4.3%
This Stock
vs
6.01%
Sector Avg
-28.5% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.11
This Stock
vs
1.82
Sector Avg
-39.2% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
BULLISH $79.64B 20.08 26.2% 9.8% $558.0
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
NEUTRAL $78.66B 44.97 11.4% 13.9% $118.72
CTAS
Cintas Corporation
NEUTRAL $75.51B 41.49 42.2% 17.5% $186.72
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
NEUTRAL $84.27B 32.89 29.3% 10.3% $209.17
EMR
Emerson Electric Co.
NEUTRAL $72.17B 31.66 9.4% 12.7% $127.58

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-09-30 BROWN MARIANNE CATHERINE Director Stock Award 76 $46,308
2025-09-30 KRISHNA ARVIND Director Stock Award 59 $35,950
2025-07-17 JONES THOMAS H. Officer Sale 729 $382,725
2025-07-07 WELSH MARK A. III Director Sale 33 $16,720
2025-06-30 BROWN MARIANNE CATHERINE Director Stock Award 93 $46,498
2025-06-30 KRISHNA ARVIND Director Stock Award 73 $36,499
2025-06-16 JONES THOMAS H. Officer Gift 616 -
2025-06-13 JONES THOMAS H. Officer Sale 729 $368,706
2025-06-13 FLEMING ROBERT J Officer Sale 3,500 $1,770,195
2025-06-13 WARDEN KATHY J Chief Executive Officer Sale 11,250 $5,649,525
2025-06-05 WELSH MARK A. III Director Sale 33 $16,120
2025-06-04 ROEDER ROSHAN S. Officer Sale 991 $485,590
2025-05-30 JONES THOMAS H. Officer Sale 729 $349,920
2025-05-21 BROWN MARIANNE CATHERINE Director Stock Award 385 $182,452
2025-05-21 KRISHNA ARVIND Director Stock Award 385 $182,452
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
18 analysts
Bernstein
2025-10-23
main
Market Perform Market Perform
UBS
2025-10-22
main
Buy Buy
JP Morgan
2025-10-22
main
Neutral Neutral
Susquehanna
2025-10-22
main
Positive Positive
BTIG
2025-10-22
main
Buy Buy
Bernstein
2025-10-20
main
Market Perform Market Perform
Truist Securities
2025-10-15
main
Buy Buy
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-15
main
Overweight Overweight
Deutsche Bank
2025-10-08
up
Hold Buy
Barclays
2025-07-29
main
Equal-Weight Equal-Weight