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OSG

BEARISH
$4.43 Live
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. · NYSE
Target $15.33 (+246.1%)
$3.88 52W Range $10.38

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated May 01, 2026
Market cap
$199.41M
P/E
N/A
ROE
-8.4%
Profit margin
-104.2%
Debt/Equity
0.12
Dividend yield
N/A

AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
OSG exhibits severe financial distress with a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, indicating critical weakness across nearly all fundamental health dimensions. While the company is undergoing a massive strategic pivot from financial guarantees to specialty P&C insurance (via the ArmadaCorp acquisition), current operations are deeply unprofitable with a profit margin of -104.17%. Despite a very low Price-to-Book ratio of 0.28 and an optimistic analyst target of $15.33, the combination of negative revenue growth (-4.60%) and a strong bearish technical trend suggests the market is pricing in significant execution risk.

Key Strengths

Very low Price-to-Book ratio (0.28) suggesting deep value if assets are intact
Low Debt/Equity ratio (0.12) providing some balance sheet flexibility
Recent earnings performance showing 3/4 beats in the last 4 quarters
Strategic pivot to a more sustainable specialty P&C insurance model
Significant gap between current price ($4.43) and analyst target ($15.33)

Key Risks

Critical financial health as evidenced by a 1/9 Piotroski F-Score
Severe negative profitability (Profit Margin: -104.17%)
Negative year-over-year revenue growth (-4.60%)
Weak liquidity indicated by a Quick Ratio of 0.43
High execution risk associated with the 2025 business model pivot and rebranding
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$7.25
+63.7% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
28
Weak
Value
65
Future
40
Past
20
Health
15
Dividend
0
AI Verdict
High-Risk Turnaround Play
Key drivers: Piotroski F-Score 1/9, Strategic pivot to P&C Insurance, Deep discount to book value, Negative operating margins
Confidence
90%
Value
65/100

Trades at a massive discount to book value, but value is trapped by lack of profitability.

Positives
  • P/B of 0.28 is extremely low
  • Forward P/E of 6.11 is attractive if earnings materialize
Watchpoints
  • Current P/E is N/A due to losses
Future
40/100

Growth is currently negative, making the pivot the only catalyst for future upside.

Positives
  • Acquisition of ArmadaCorp Capital provides a new growth engine
  • Narrowing quarterly losses
Watchpoints
  • Negative YoY revenue growth
  • Unproven new business model
Past
20/100

Long-term performance is disastrous, reflecting the failure of the legacy business.

Positives
  • Recent surprise beats in EPS
Watchpoints
  • 5-year price change of -74%
  • Highly erratic historical EPS
Health
15/100

Deterministic health scores are at critical lows.

Positives
  • Low Debt/Equity ratio
Watchpoints
  • Piotroski F-Score 1/9
  • Quick Ratio 0.43 indicates liquidity pressure
Dividend
0/100

Not a dividend-paying security.

Positives
No standout positives identified.
Watchpoints
  • No dividend history
  • Zero payout

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$4.43
Analyst Target
$15.33
Upside/Downside
+246.1%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for OSG and closest competitors.

Updated 2026-04-30
OSG
Octave Specialty Group, Inc.
Primary
5Y
-74.0%
3Y
-71.9%
1Y
-44.5%
6M
-47.8%
1M
-4.7%
1W
-3.5%
CZW
Citizens Community Bancorp, Inc.
Peer
5Y
+76.3%
3Y
+110.9%
1Y
+40.2%
6M
+30.3%
1M
+5.8%
1W
+0.4%
KTW
K2 Capital Acquisition Corporation
Peer
5Y
+1.2%
3Y
+1.2%
1Y
+1.2%
6M
+1.2%
1M
+1.2%
1W
+1.1%
DMB
BNY Mellon Municipal Bond Infrastructure Fund, Inc.
Peer
5Y
-9.5%
3Y
+10.7%
1Y
+13.3%
6M
+3.0%
1M
+4.7%
1W
-0.9%
INB
First Internet Bancorp
Peer
5Y
-31.1%
3Y
+75.1%
1Y
+9.5%
6M
+29.2%
1M
+12.3%
1W
-2.5%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
N/A
Forward P/E
6.11
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
0.28
P/S Ratio
0.79
EV/Revenue
2.08
EV/EBITDA
-35.44
Market Cap
$199.41M

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin -104.17%
Operating Margin -28.57%
Gross Margin 60.19%
ROE -8.4%
ROA -0.69%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth -4.6%
Earnings Growth N/A
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth N/A

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
0.12
Low debt
Current Ratio
1.0
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.43
Poor
Cash/Share
$3.87

Financial Statement Flow

Interactive flow visualization showing how money moves through the company Q4 2025

Revenue
$0.1B
Net Margin
-46.6%
Total Assets
$2.2B
Liabilities
$1.1B
Equity
$0.7B
Debt/Equity
1.59x
Operating CF
$-0.0B
Free Cash Flow
$-0.0B
FCF Yield
100%

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-05-06
$N/A
2026-02-23
$-0.02
+90.2% surprise
2025-11-10
$-0.21
+8.7% surprise
2025-08-07
$-0.22
+8.3% surprise

Financial Services Sector Comparison

Comparing OSG against 975 companies in the Financial Services sector (156 bullish, 425 neutral, 394 bearish)
Return on Equity (ROE)
-8.4%
This Stock
vs
0.29%
Sector Avg
-2973.4% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
-104.17%
This Stock
vs
88.25%
Sector Avg
-218.0% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
0.12
This Stock
vs
1.32
Sector Avg
-91.1% (Less Debt)
Revenue Growth
-4.6%
This Stock
vs
33.02%
Sector Avg
-113.9% (Slower)
Current Ratio
1.0
This Stock
vs
3.69
Sector Avg
-73.0% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

AHN CRISTINA E.
Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-10
835 shares
TRICK DAVID
Chief Financial Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-03
1,715 shares
SMITH R. SHARON
Chief Operating Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-03
1,541 shares
LEBLANC CLAUDE L.
Chief Executive Officer
Stock Award
2026-03-03
24,548 shares
LEBLANC CLAUDE L.
Chief Executive Officer
Buy
2026-01-02
12,000 shares · $91,080
SMITH R. SHARON
Officer
Buy
2025-11-12
20 shares · $205
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

SEC Filings

Recent regulatory filings from the SEC EDGAR database

DEF 14A
DEF 14A
2026-04-10

OSG filed a definitive proxy statement (DEF 14A) on April 10, 2026, providing shareholders with necessary information for voting at the company's annual meeting.

8-K
8-K
2026-04-07

OSG filed an 8-K on April 7, 2026, likely to announce its first-quarter financial results.

10-K
10-K
2026-03-04

Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG), formerly Ambac Financial Group, Inc., has pivoted its business model following the September 2025 sale of its Legacy Financial Guarantee business and the October 2025 acquisition of ArmadaCorp Capital, LLC. The company now focuses on specialty property and casualty insurance underwriting and distribution through MGAs and brokers. This significant strategic transition and rebranding represent the primary operational shifts for the company.

8-K
8-K
2026-02-23

OSG likely reported its annual financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.

8-K
8-K
2026-01-06
8-K
8-K
2025-12-15

OSG filed a current report on December 15, 2025, likely announcing its year-end earnings release date or a material corporate update.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-10

OSG filed an 8-K likely announcing its third-quarter financial results.

10-Q
10-Q
2025-11-10

OSG is focusing on maximizing shareholder value through its continuing operations following the divestiture of its Legacy Financial Guarantee business and the sale of Ambac Assurance Corporation. Current financial reporting excludes these discontinued operations to reflect the company's streamlined business model. Detailed risk factors are disclosed in Item 1A of the filing.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-10

OSG filed an 8-K likely announcing its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-11-03

Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG) filed an 8-K on November 3, 2025, likely to announce its third-quarter financial results.

8-K
8-K
2025-09-30
8-K
8-K
2025-09-29
8-K
8-K
2025-09-29
8-K
8-K
2025-09-29
8-K
8-K
2025-08-07
Data sourced from SEC EDGAR. AI summaries generated automatically.

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
NONE
3 analysts
Truist Securities
2025-11-12
Maintains
Buy Buy

Past News Coverage

Recent headlines mentioning OSG from our newsroom.

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