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PHM

NEUTRAL
$119.21 Live
PulteGroup, Inc. · NYSE
Target $137.5 (+15.3%)
$95.2 52W Range $144.5

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AI Analysis

AI-powered fundamental assessment

Confidence
85%
PHM exhibits a contradictory profile: a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates deteriorating operational health, yet the balance sheet remains exceptionally clean with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.19. While the current price of $119.21 sits below the Graham Number ($125.69), it is significantly higher than the growth-based intrinsic value of $72.38, reflecting a premium that is not supported by current negative growth trends. Revenue and earnings are in a sharp cyclical decline (-12.4% and -30.4% YoY respectively), driven by mortgage rate volatility and affordability challenges. The stock is currently a battle between strong solvency and weakening fundamentals.

Key Strengths

Extremely low leverage (Debt/Equity 0.19)
Strong liquidity position (Current Ratio 7.14)
Low valuation relative to sector average P/E (11.53 vs 31.73)
Very low dividend payout ratio (9.28%), ensuring dividend safety
Consistent history of earnings beats over the long term (25 quarters)

Key Risks

Significant earnings contraction (-30.4% YoY)
Gross margin compression (28.9% to 26.3% per 10-K)
High sensitivity to mortgage interest rate volatility
Bearish insider sentiment with heavy selling by the CEO and COO
Weakening consumer demand and affordability challenges
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$102.5
-14.0% below current price

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Sector Comparison & Peer Analysis

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