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RLI

BEARISH
$51.5 Live
RLI Corp. · NYSE
Target $57.75 (+12.1%)
$50.63 52W Range $77.24

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AI Analysis

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Confidence
85%
RLI Corp presents a stable but deteriorating profile, characterized by a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a current price of $51.50 that significantly exceeds both its Graham Number ($43.22) and Intrinsic Value ($30.03). While the company maintains a strong ROE of 23.23% and very low leverage (Debt/Equity 0.20), these fundamentals are overshadowed by negative earnings growth (-12.2% YoY) and a severe bearish technical trend. The stock is currently trading at a premium to its defensive fair value despite a lack of growth catalysts.

Key Strengths

Strong Return on Equity (ROE) of 23.23%
Very low Debt/Equity ratio (0.20), indicating high solvency
Consistent track record of beating earnings estimates (3/4 last 4 quarters)
Conservative dividend payout ratio (14.92%)
Healthy profit margins (20.80%)

Key Risks

Negative earnings growth (-12.2% YoY and -13.2% Q/Q)
Significant overvaluation relative to Intrinsic Value ($30.03) and Graham Number ($43.22)
Strongly bearish technical trend (1Y Change: -26.7%)
Forward P/E (18.54) is higher than trailing P/E (12.00), suggesting expected earnings decline
Stagnant revenue growth (4.00% YoY)
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$40.0
-22.3% below current price

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