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RSG Republic Services, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL
RSG Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Industrials Waste Management
Current Price
$209.8
Analyst Target
$246.67
+17.6% Upside
52W High
$258.75
52W Low
$199.43

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$64.95B
P/E
31.17
ROE
18.2%
Profit margin
12.8%
Debt/Equity
1.14
Dividend yield
1.19%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Republic Services (RSG) trades at a premium valuation with a P/E of 31.17, slightly above sector average, while delivering modest 3.3% YoY revenue growth and flat earnings growth, which creates tension between quality execution and stretched multiples. The company has a strong track record of earnings beats over the past 25 quarters—averaging a 3.46% surprise over the last four—with consistent margin expansion and solid ROE of 18.25%, outperforming many industrial peers on profitability stability. However, near-term price momentum is weak, with a 6M return of -14.9% and insider selling activity, offsetting bullish analyst sentiment (24 analysts, $246.67 target, buy rating). While RSG remains a high-quality operator in the waste management space with durable cash flows and a disciplined dividend policy, its current valuation demands near-perfect execution, leaving limited margin for error in a rising rate environment.

Key Strengths

Consistent earnings outperformance: 22 of the last 25 quarters beat EPS estimates, with an average surprise of 3.46% over the last four quarters
Superior profitability: 19.92% operating margin and 18.25% ROE exceed sector averages of 13.94% profit margin and 32.70% ROE (though ROE is lower than some peers like ITW)
Resilient business model: Waste management is recession-resilient with stable pricing power and high customer retention
Healthy dividend policy: 1.19% yield with a sustainable 35.14% payout ratio, indicating capital return discipline
Strong free cash flow generation implied by operating margin and low capex intensity typical in the sector

Key Risks

Premium valuation: P/E of 31.17 is high for only 3.3% revenue growth, especially versus peers like NSC (21.64 P/E) and ITW (23.64 P/E)
Near-term earnings contraction: -2.2% YoY earnings growth and -2.8% Q/Q decline raise concerns about margin compression or volume softness
Weak short-term price momentum: -14.9% over 6 months underperforms sector and key peers like NSC (+16.5%) and EMR (+6.7%)
Insider selling trend: Two sell transactions totaling $1.78M in the last six months with no buys, signaling caution from executives
Liquidity risk: Current ratio of 0.58 and quick ratio of 0.51 suggest tight working capital, below the sector average leverage but concerning for operational flexibility
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$235.5
+12.2% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
69
Strong
Value
58
Future
62
Past
80
Health
60
Dividend
85
AI Verdict
RSG demonstrates high-quality fundamentals with consistent earnings delivery and solid returns on capital, but its premium valuation and recent insider selling constrain upside despite a $246.67 analyst target implying 17.6% upside; relative to peers like NSC and EMR, it offers less value for similar growth, making it fairly priced at best in the current environment.
Key drivers: Earnings consistency and beat rate, Premium valuation relative to growth profile, Dividend sustainability and capital allocation discipline
Confidence
75%
Value
58/100

RSG trades at a slight premium to the industrial sector’s average P/E of 32.09 despite below-average revenue growth (3.3% vs 5.97%), making it appear relatively expensive for its growth trajectory.

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 30.81 is in line with peer EMR (31.66) and below high-growth CTAS (41.49)
  • P/S of 3.94 is reasonable for a stable cash flow business in industrials
Watchpoints
  • P/E of 31.17 is elevated relative to 3.3% revenue growth, resulting in a high PEG-like multiple
  • Price/Book of 5.48 is steep versus sector median and suggests intangible overvaluation
Future
62/100

While near-term earnings momentum shows signs of recovery (+7.3% Q/Q EPS), the broader trajectory of slowing revenue growth and negative YoY earnings expansion, combined with weak 6M price performance (-14.9%), suggests tepid investor sentiment on future catalysts.

Positives
  • Recent Q/Q EPS growth of +7.3% suggests potential rebound in profitability
  • Waste sector benefits from inflation pass-through and volume stability in economic downturns
Watchpoints
  • Revenue growth of 3.3% YoY is decelerating versus peer average of 5.97%
  • Negative earnings growth trends (-2.2% YoY) raise sustainability concerns
Past
80/100

RSG has a proven history of reliable earnings delivery and margin discipline, supported by strong 5Y total return of +120.4%, though recent underperformance (-14.9% over 6M) highlights a potential inflection point in sentiment.

Positives
  • 22 out of 25 quarters beat EPS estimates, including multiple double-digit surprises (e.g., +22.6%, +38.9%)
  • ROE of 18.25% and stable margins reflect long-term operational excellence
Watchpoints
  • Earnings growth has turned negative YoY (-2.2%), breaking a long streak of expansion
  • 52-week high of $258.75 was not retested, and price remains 18.9% below peak
Health
60/100

While leverage is in line with peers, RSG’s weak liquidity profile—current and quick ratios below 0.6—stands out negatively versus stable industrial operators, suggesting potential working capital strain despite adequate long-term debt levels.

Positives
  • Debt/Equity of 1.14 is manageable and below sector average of 1.26
  • Operating margin strength supports EBITDA cushion for debt servicing
Watchpoints
  • Current ratio of 0.58 and quick ratio of 0.51 indicate poor short-term liquidity
  • Missing cash flow data raises transparency concerns about true financial runway
Dividend
85/100

RSG’s dividend is well-covered and sustainable, with a prudent payout ratio typical of high-quality industrials, though the modest yield may not attract income-focused investors relative to peers like NSC.

Positives
  • Low payout ratio of 35.14% provides significant coverage and room for future increases
  • Dividend yield of 1.19% is supported by consistent cash flow and long-term policy
Watchpoints
  • Yield is below peer average; CTAS yields less but grows faster, NSC offers higher income
  • No 5-year yield average provided, limiting visibility into consistency

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$209.8
Analyst Target
$246.67
Upside/Downside
+17.6%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for RSG and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
Primary
+120.4% +68.9% +1.2% -14.9% -5.1% +2.0%
CMI
Cummins Inc.
Peer
+125.6% +98.6% +29.8% +39.8% +9.3% -2.3%
PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
Peer
+524.9% +199.4% +32.7% +24.6% -1.8% -3.5%
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation
Peer
+27.7% +22.6% +9.6% +16.5% -1.5% -0.1%
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
Peer
+29.2% +14.8% -7.4% -1.7% -1.5% -0.6%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
31.17
Forward P/E
30.81
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
5.48
P/S Ratio
3.94
EV/Revenue
4.75
EV/EBITDA
15.19
Market Cap
$64.95B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 12.77%
Operating Margin 19.92%
Gross Margin 43.27%
ROE 18.25%
ROA 6.34%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +3.3%
Earnings Growth -2.2%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth -2.8%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
1.14
Moderate
Current Ratio
0.58
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.51
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.27

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-02-12
$N/A
2025-10-30
$1.9
+6.5% surprise
2025-07-29
$1.77
+0.8% surprise
2025-04-24
$1.58
+3.1% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing RSG against 28 companies in the Industrials sector (6 bullish, 21 neutral, 1 bearish)
P/E Ratio
31.17
This Stock
vs
32.92
Sector Avg
-5.3% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
18.25%
This Stock
vs
31.08%
Sector Avg
-41.3% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
12.77%
This Stock
vs
13.32%
Sector Avg
-4.2% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
1.14
This Stock
vs
1.21
Sector Avg
-6.2% (Lower)
Revenue Growth
3.3%
This Stock
vs
6.01%
Sector Avg
-45.1% (Slower)
Current Ratio
0.58
This Stock
vs
1.82
Sector Avg
-68.0% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
NEUTRAL $64.95B 31.17 18.2% 12.8% $209.8
CMI
Cummins Inc.
NEUTRAL $64.53B 23.98 22.8% 7.9% $462.61
PWR
Quanta Services, Inc.
NEUTRAL $64.02B 63.69 13.4% 3.7% $429.3
NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation
NEUTRAL $63.72B 21.64 20.5% 24.2% $283.98
ITW
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
NEUTRAL $71.16B 23.64 91.7% 19.1% $243.97

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-08-25 BRUMMER GREGG Chief Operating Officer Stock Award 524 -
2025-08-22 BRUMMER GREGG Chief Operating Officer Sale 7,338 $1,716,652
2025-08-19 CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C. Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security Purchase 4,258 $1,000,245
2025-08-08 HODGES AMANDA Officer Stock Award 124 -
2025-06-25 VANDER ARK JONATHAN Chief Executive Officer Stock Award 970 -
2025-06-05 CARLSEN ELYSE Officer Sale 235 $59,495
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
24 analysts
Wells Fargo
2025-11-14
init
Overweight
Bernstein
2025-11-12
init
Market Perform
JP Morgan
2025-10-31
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Scotiabank
2025-10-31
Maintains
Sector Perform Sector Perform
Stifel
2025-10-31
Maintains
Buy Buy
UBS
2025-10-16
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
JP Morgan
2025-10-14
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Oppenheimer
2025-10-08
Maintains
Outperform Outperform
Barclays
2025-09-19
init
Equal-Weight
Citigroup
2025-09-17
Maintains
Buy Buy