TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
NEUTRAL
TMUS Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE
•
Communication Services
•
Telecom Services
Current Price
$216.08
Analyst Target
$275.0
+27.3% Upside
52W High
$276.49
52W Low
$199.41
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
Updated Nov 15, 2025
Market cap
$241.69B
P/E
20.84
ROE
19.0%
Profit margin
13.8%
Debt/Equity
2.01
Dividend yield
1.89%
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
T-Mobile US (TMUS) trades at a premium valuation with solid long-term profitability and industry-leading revenue growth relative to peers like AT&T, supported by strong operating margins and ROE. However, near-term earnings contraction, weakening quarterly momentum, and bearish insider selling—over $423M in net sales by major holders—raise caution despite a bullish analyst consensus and a compelling 1.89% dividend yield with a sustainable payout ratio. The stock has underperformed over the past year (-7.8%) and six months (-10.3%), lagging both its 5-year trend and peer Meta's growth trajectory, while trading above sector-average P/E. Data gaps in key financials (EV, cash flow, ROIC) limit conviction, but the core business remains resilient in a competitive telecom landscape.
Key Strengths
Revenue growth of 8.9% YoY outpaces AT&T (1.6%) and exceeds the sector average in telecom services
Strong profitability with operating margin of 22.23% and gross margin of 63.78%, reflecting pricing power and cost discipline
ROE of 19.03% is competitive versus sector average of 25.89% and AT&T's 19.14%, indicating efficient equity use
Attractive dividend yield of 1.89% with a healthy 33.91% payout ratio, suggesting room for future increases
Analyst target price of $275 implies 27% upside, reflecting strong external confidence in recovery
Key Risks
Earnings declining YoY (-7.7%) and Q/Q (-11.3%), indicating near-term profitability pressure
Debt/Equity of 2.01 is significantly above sector average (0.75) and peer AT&T (1.24), increasing financial risk
Current ratio of 0.89 and quick ratio of 0.57 signal tight liquidity, raising concerns about short-term obligations
Bearish insider activity: $423.12M in net selling by 10%+ beneficial owners suggests lack of confidence at the top
Valuation premium: P/E of 20.84 exceeds sector average (17.65) and AT&T (8.34), with no PEG to justify growth discount
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$275.0
+27.3% above current price
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
Overall
61
Strong
58
55
68
50
75
AI Verdict
T-Mobile presents a mixed profile: fundamentally strong in margins and growth relative to telecom peers, yet burdened by high leverage, declining earnings, and concerning insider outflows. It trades at a premium to sector valuation despite weaker near-term momentum than Meta or even AT&T, with a bullish analyst target suggesting recovery expectations not yet priced in. The stock’s 1-year underperformance contrasts with solid 5-year returns, indicating cyclical headwinds rather than structural decline.
Key drivers: Premium valuation relative to sector and earnings trajectory, Divergence between strong revenue growth and weakening profitability, Bearish insider sentiment offset by bullish analyst price targets
Confidence
65%
Value
58/100
TMUS trades at a significant valuation premium to the sector average P/E of 17.65 and deeply leveraged peer AT&T (8.34), despite only moderate revenue growth and negative earnings momentum, suggesting limited margin of safety.
Positives
- P/E of 20.84 is in line with forward P/E of 20.25, suggesting stable earnings expectations
- Price/Sales of 2.82 is reasonable for a telecom with growth above peers
Watchpoints
- P/E of 20.84 exceeds sector average of 17.65 and AT&T's 8.34 without superior growth to justify premium
- No PEG or EV/EBITDA data limits ability to assess growth-adjusted value
Future
55/100
Despite solid revenue momentum, earnings are contracting and price performance has weakened over 1Y (-7.8%) and 6M (-10.3%), suggesting future expectations are not translating into execution, though the 1W +4.4% bounce may indicate short-term stabilization.
Positives
- Revenue growth of 8.9% YoY is strong in a mature telecom industry
- Analyst target of $275 implies confidence in rebound and long-term 5G and bundling strategy
Watchpoints
- Earnings declining by 7.7% YoY and 11.3% Q/Q signal near-term headwinds in profitability
- No quarterly earnings surprise data available, but '0/4 beats' suggests consistent underdelivery
Past
68/100
T-Mobile has delivered solid long-term returns (+73% over 5 years) and maintains high-quality profitability, but recent quarters show a troubling pattern of missing or barely meeting expectations, with no positive earnings surprises in the last year.
Positives
- 5-year return of +73.0% reflects strong long-term shareholder value creation
- Consistently high ROE (19.03%) and stable gross/operating margins over time
Watchpoints
- No quarterly earnings data with dates or actual estimates, limiting trend analysis
- Last 4 quarters have 0% average surprise and 0/4 beats, indicating persistent underperformance
Health
50/100
T-Mobile’s balance sheet is significantly more leveraged than the sector average (Debt/Equity 0.75 vs 2.01) and even AT&T (1.24), with weak liquidity ratios that could constrain flexibility during downturns or rate hikes.
Positives
- Operating margin of 22.23% supports strong cash generation potential
- Debt appears manageable given stable operations and investment-grade profile
Watchpoints
- Debt/Equity of 2.01 is high versus sector average of 0.75 and increases refinancing risk
- Current (0.89) and quick (0.57) ratios indicate strained short-term liquidity
Dividend
75/100
The dividend offers a solid 1.89% yield with a low 34% payout ratio, suggesting safety and room for growth, though lack of historical data on increases limits confidence in long-term commitment.
Positives
- Dividend yield of 1.89% is attractive in the current rate environment
- Payout ratio of 33.91% is conservative, indicating strong earnings coverage
Watchpoints
- No 5-year yield average or dividend growth history provided, limiting visibility into policy consistency
- Dividend sustainability could be pressured if earnings decline continues
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Current Price
$216.08
Analyst Target
$275.0
Upside/Downside
+27.3%
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for TMUS and closest competitors.
Updated 2025-11-14
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TMUS
T-Mobile US, Inc.
Primary
|
+73.0% | +53.5% | -7.8% | -10.3% | -4.7% | +4.4% |
|
APP
AppLovin Corporation
Peer
|
+755.4% | +3493.4% | +96.0% | +53.9% | -7.4% | -10.0% |
|
T
AT&T Inc.
Peer
|
+63.7% | +59.3% | +20.2% | -5.8% | -1.8% | +3.1% |
|
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
Peer
|
-9.0% | +33.3% | +7.4% | -3.5% | +1.7% | +2.6% |
|
CMCSA
Comcast Corporation
Peer
|
-36.1% | -11.7% | -34.3% | -20.9% | -7.4% | +0.6% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
P/E Ratio
20.84
Forward P/E
20.25
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
4.0
P/S Ratio
2.82
EV/Revenue
4.19
EV/EBITDA
11.05
Market Cap
$241.69B
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Profit Margin
13.83%
Operating Margin
22.23%
Gross Margin
63.78%
ROE
19.03%
ROA
5.74%
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Revenue Growth
+8.9%
Earnings Growth
-7.7%
Q/Q Revenue Growth
N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth
-11.3%
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Debt/Equity
2.01
High debt
Current Ratio
0.89
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.57
Poor
Cash/Share
$2.96
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
2026-01-28
$N/A
2025-10-23
$2.41
+0.4% surprise
2025-07-23
$2.84
+6.3% surprise
2025-04-24
$2.64
+6.6% surprise
Communication Services Sector Comparison
Comparing TMUS against 7 companies in the Communication Services sector
(2 bullish, 4 neutral, 1 bearish)
P/E Ratio
20.84
This Stock
vs
20.12
Sector Avg
+3.6%
(Premium)
Return on Equity (ROE)
19.03%
This Stock
vs
55.44%
Sector Avg
-65.7%
(Below Avg)
Profit Margin
13.83%
This Stock
vs
21.36%
Sector Avg
-35.3%
(Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.01
This Stock
vs
1.93
Sector Avg
+3.7%
(Higher)
Revenue Growth
8.9%
This Stock
vs
14.69%
Sector Avg
-39.4%
(Slower)
Current Ratio
0.89
This Stock
vs
1.3
Sector Avg
-31.5%
(Weaker)
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
TMUS
T-Mobile US, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $241.69B | 20.84 | 19.0% | 13.8% | $216.08 | |
|
APP
AppLovin Corporation
|
BULLISH | $187.95B | 65.77 | 241.9% | 44.9% | $557.7 | |
|
T
AT&T Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $182.55B | 8.34 | 19.1% | 17.9% | $25.59 | |
|
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $173.34B | 8.75 | 19.9% | 14.4% | $41.06 | |
|
CMCSA
Comcast Corporation
|
NEUTRAL | $101.92B | 4.57 | 24.2% | 18.3% | $27.51 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 | SIEVERT G MICHAEL | Director | Gift | 43,318 | - |
| 2025-11-07 | SIEVERT G MICHAEL | Director | Stock Award | 135,915 | - |
| 2025-11-06 | GOPALAN SRINI | Chief Executive Officer | Purchase | 9,800 | $1,977,836 |
| 2025-10-31 | GOPALAN SRINI | Chief Executive Officer | Stock Award | 41,464 | - |
| 2025-10-29 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 1,374 | $302,911 |
| 2025-10-28 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 117,933 | $26,030,612 |
| 2025-10-24 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 35,577 | $7,866,666 |
| 2025-10-22 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 128,852 | $29,341,911 |
| 2025-10-20 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 128,852 | $29,469,811 |
| 2025-10-16 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 128,852 | $29,298,979 |
| 2025-10-14 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 193,278 | $44,042,940 |
| 2025-10-09 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | Director and Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 128,852 | $29,197,932 |
| 2025-10-07 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 128,852 | $29,114,621 |
| 2025-10-03 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 128,852 | $29,611,478 |
| 2025-10-01 | DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sale | 128,852 | $30,535,430 |
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets
Consensus
BUY
26 analysts
Tigress Financial
2025-11-11
Buy
Buy
Morgan Stanley
2025-10-27
Overweight
Overweight
TD Cowen
2025-10-24
Buy
Buy
Barclays
2025-10-24
Overweight
Overweight
Wells Fargo
2025-10-16
Equal-Weight
Overweight
RBC Capital
2025-10-14
Sector Perform
Outperform
Benchmark
2025-10-10
Buy
Buy
Scotiabank
2025-10-06
Sector Outperform
Sector Outperform
JP Morgan
2025-09-30
Overweight
Overweight
RBC Capital
2025-07-25
Sector Perform
Sector Perform