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TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

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TMUS Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Communication Services Telecom Services
Current Price Live
$186.32
Analyst Target
$269.22
+44.5% Upside
52W High
$276.49
52W Low
$185.19

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AI Analysis

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Confidence Score
65%
Analysis Accuracy
T-Mobile US (TMUS) shows mixed financial health with a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, indicating stable but not strong fundamentals. While profitability metrics like ROE (19.03%) and gross margin (63.78%) are solid, the company faces near-term earnings contraction (YoY EPS growth: -11.1%) and elevated leverage (Debt/Equity: 2.01). The stock trades above both the Graham Number ($112.32) and intrinsic value estimate ($72.59), reflecting growth expectations, but insider selling and weak technical trends (0/100) raise caution. Analysts maintain a 'buy' recommendation with a high target price ($269.22), though recent price performance is negative (-12.3% over 1Y).

Key Strengths

Strong historical earnings surprise record, with 3 out of last 4 quarters beating estimates and multi-year pattern of positive surprises
High profitability margins: gross margin at 63.78%, operating margin at 22.23%, and ROE of 19.03% exceed sector averages
Solid dividend profile with a 2.14% yield and sustainable 33.91% payout ratio
Revenue growth remains positive at 8.90% YoY, outpacing peers like AT&T and Verizon
Large market cap ($209.69B) provides resilience and scale advantages in competitive telecom sector

Key Risks

Weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals suboptimal financial health, particularly around liquidity and earnings trends
Negative year-over-year earnings growth (-7.70%) and declining Q/Q EPS (-11.30%) indicate near-term profitability pressure
High leverage with Debt/Equity ratio of 2.01, above sector average of 1.22, increasing financial risk
Poor liquidity position: Current Ratio (0.89) and Quick Ratio (0.57) suggest potential short-term solvency concerns
Bearish insider activity: $264.83M in insider sales over last 6 months with zero buys, signaling lack of confidence from insiders
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$145.0
-22.2% below current price

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