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WM Waste Management, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis

NEUTRAL
WM Stock | Fundamental Analysis & Investment Insights
NYSE Industrials Waste Management
Current Price
$209.17
Analyst Target
$245.71
+17.5% Upside
52W High
$242.58
52W Low
$194.11

At a glance

Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.

Updated Nov 16, 2025
Market cap
$84.27B
P/E
32.89
ROE
29.3%
Profit margin
10.3%
Debt/Equity
2.45
Dividend yield
1.58%

AI Analysis

Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms

Confidence Score
72%
Analysis Accuracy
Waste Management (WM) trades at a premium valuation with solid long-term fundamentals, including strong ROE of 29.33% and consistent revenue growth of 14.90% YoY, outpacing the industrial sector average. However, near-term earnings pressure is evident, with YoY EPS down 20.7% and mixed recent earnings surprises, while the stock has underperformed peers over the past year with a -4.3% return. The company maintains a disciplined dividend policy with a sustainable 50.8% payout ratio, but elevated leverage (Debt/Equity: 2.45) and insider selling—$14.39M in sales by officers including the CFO—raise caution. Analysts remain constructive with a $245.71 target implying ~17% upside, though current P/E of 32.89 exceeds both forward P/E and sector averages, suggesting limited near-term multiple expansion.

Key Strengths

Revenue growth of 14.90% YoY significantly exceeds industrial sector average of 7.02%
High return on equity (29.33%) indicates efficient use of shareholder capital
Operating margin of 18.87% reflects pricing power and cost discipline in a capital-intensive industry
Dividend payout ratio of 50.79% is sustainable given stable cash flows from essential waste services
Analyst target price of $245.71 implies 17.5% upside, signaling continued confidence

Key Risks

Earnings declined 20.7% YoY despite revenue growth, indicating margin compression or one-time costs
Premium valuation: P/E of 32.89 vs sector avg 27.01 and forward P/E of 25.92 limits near-term upside
Debt/Equity ratio of 2.45 is above sector average of 1.77, increasing refinancing risk in high-rate environment
Insider selling activity, including CFO sale of $14.39M, signals lack of confidence at executive level
Current ratio of 0.84 and quick ratio of 0.73 suggest tight short-term liquidity
AI Fair Value Estimate
Based on comprehensive analysis
$245.71
+17.5% above current price

Performance Snowflake

Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories

Overall
65
Strong
Value
58
Future
65
Past
70
Health
55
Dividend
78
AI Verdict
WM exhibits resilient operational fundamentals and sector-leading revenue growth, supported by essential service demand and strong ROE, but elevated valuation and recent insider selling constrain near-term upside; trading at a premium to peers like NOC and LMT, the stock appears fairly valued only if earnings recover in line with analyst expectations.
Key drivers: Revenue growth outperformance vs industrial peers, Premium valuation requiring flawless execution, Insider selling creating sentiment overhang
Confidence
75%
Value
58/100

WM trades at a valuation premium to industrial peers like NOC (P/E 20.08) and PCAR (P/E 18.74), justified only by superior growth and margin profile, but current multiples appear stretched relative to near-term earnings trajectory.

Positives
  • Forward P/E of 25.92 is more reasonable than current P/E of 32.89
  • Price/Sales of 3.40 is in line with high-margin industrials
Watchpoints
  • Current P/E of 32.89 is significantly above sector average of 27.01
  • Price/Book of 8.85 suggests equity overvaluation relative to book value
Future
65/100

Despite robust revenue momentum and a positive 1W price change of +3.6%, the disconnect between top-line growth and bottom-line performance, combined with weak 1Y and 6M returns (-4.3%, -8.3%), suggests market skepticism about profit recovery.

Positives
  • Revenue growth of 14.90% YoY indicates strong volume and pricing momentum
  • Forward P/E decline suggests improving earnings expectations
Watchpoints
  • Earnings growth of -20.70% YoY contradicts revenue strength, raising sustainability concerns
  • Mixed quarterly earnings surprises (2 beats in last 4 quarters) signal execution volatility
Past
70/100

WM has delivered strong historical profitability and long-term capital appreciation, but recent earnings misses and margin pressure have disrupted the consistency of its track record, contributing to near-term underperformance.

Positives
  • Consistent profitability with operating margin of 18.87% and gross margin of 39.99%
  • Long-term share price appreciation of +85.7% over 5 years demonstrates compounding value creation
Watchpoints
  • Earnings volatility evident in recent quarters, including -5.7% and -8.6% misses
  • 1Y return of -4.3% underperforms sector peers like MMM (+29.7%) and NOC (+13.5%)
Health
55/100

WM’s financial leverage exceeds peer norms (e.g., PCAR at 0.82, NOC at 1.09), and weak liquidity metrics suggest limited buffer against downturns, though essential service cash flows provide some offset.

Positives
  • No reported cash burn; business generates stable operating cash flow typical of waste sector
  • Debt levels manageable given asset base and contracted revenue streams
Watchpoints
  • Debt/Equity ratio of 2.45 is above sector average of 1.77, increasing financial risk
  • Current and quick ratios below 1.0 indicate potential short-term liquidity constraints
Dividend
78/100

WM maintains a reliable and well-covered dividend policy typical of mature industrials, though the yield is less attractive than some peers, and lack of dividend growth visibility limits upside for income-focused investors.

Positives
  • Dividend yield of 1.58% is modest but supported by a sustainable 50.79% payout ratio
  • Consistent annual dividend of $3.30 reflects capital allocation discipline
Watchpoints
  • Yield below some high-dividend peers, limiting appeal in income portfolios
  • No data on 5-year yield trend or dividend growth history

Stock Price & Analyst Targets

Real-time price movements and analyst price targets

Current Price
$209.17
Analyst Target
$245.71
Upside/Downside
+17.5%

Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers

Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for WM and closest competitors.

Updated 2025-11-14
Company 5Y 3Y 1Y 6M 1M 1W
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
Primary
+85.7% +39.5% -4.3% -8.3% -2.1% +3.6%
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Peer
+93.9% +17.1% +13.5% +19.0% -8.4% -1.9%
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
Peer
+189.6% +89.8% +41.2% +21.7% +7.1% -2.9%
MMM
3M Company
Peer
+39.8% +72.8% +29.7% +11.0% +9.7% +2.1%
TT
Trane Technologies plc
Peer
+193.4% +145.3% +2.9% -2.1% -1.0% -3.8%

Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.

Historical Performance Trends

Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns

Revenue & Net Income

Profit & Operating Margins

Return on Equity (ROE)

Quarterly Revenue Growth

Historical data shows last 12 quarters (3 years)

Valuation Metrics

Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators

P/E Ratio
32.89
Forward P/E
25.92
PEG Ratio
N/A
P/B Ratio
8.85
P/S Ratio
3.4
EV/Revenue
4.34
EV/EBITDA
14.77
Market Cap
$84.27B

Profitability

Profit margins and return metrics

Profit Margin 10.35%
Operating Margin 18.87%
Gross Margin 39.99%
ROE 29.33%
ROA 7.05%

Growth

Revenue and earnings growth rates

Revenue Growth +14.9%
Earnings Growth -20.7%
Q/Q Revenue Growth N/A
Q/Q Earnings Growth -20.7%

Financial Health

Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics

Debt/Equity
2.45
High debt
Current Ratio
0.84
Weak
Quick Ratio
0.73
Poor
Cash/Share
$0.43

Quarterly Earnings History

EPS performance vs analyst estimates

2026-01-28
$N/A
2025-10-27
$1.98
-1.6% surprise
2025-07-28
$1.92
+1.8% surprise
2025-04-28
$1.67
+5.3% surprise

Industrials Sector Comparison

Comparing WM against 28 companies in the Industrials sector (6 bullish, 21 neutral, 1 bearish)
P/E Ratio
32.89
This Stock
vs
32.92
Sector Avg
-0.1% (Discount)
Return on Equity (ROE)
29.33%
This Stock
vs
31.08%
Sector Avg
-5.6% (Below Avg)
Profit Margin
10.35%
This Stock
vs
13.32%
Sector Avg
-22.4% (Weaker)
Debt to Equity
2.45
This Stock
vs
1.21
Sector Avg
+102.3% (Higher)
Revenue Growth
14.9%
This Stock
vs
6.01%
Sector Avg
+147.7% (Fast Growth)
Current Ratio
0.84
This Stock
vs
1.82
Sector Avg
-53.8% (Weaker)

Similar Companies

Peer comparison within the same industry

Company AI Rating Market Cap P/E ROE Profit Margin Price
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
NEUTRAL $84.27B 32.89 29.3% 10.3% $209.17
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
BULLISH $79.64B 20.08 26.2% 9.8% $558.0
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
NEUTRAL $78.66B 44.97 11.4% 13.9% $118.72
MMM
3M Company
NEUTRAL $90.64B 26.73 72.9% 13.7% $167.58
TT
Trane Technologies plc
BULLISH $92.72B 31.95 37.2% 13.9% $418.16

Recent Insider Trading

Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months

Date Insider Position Transaction Shares Value
2025-11-03 REED DAVID L. Chief Financial Officer Stock Award 2,628 -
2025-11-03 MENKE SEAN EDWARD Director Purchase 2,000 $392,840
2025-09-04 STITH KIMBERLY G. Officer Sale 100 $22,520
2025-09-02 HEMMER TARA J Officer Stock Award 9,130 -
2025-07-15 BENE THOMAS L Director Stock Award 696 $158,302
2025-07-15 SYLVESTER MARYROSE T Director Stock Award 696 $158,302
2025-07-15 GLUSKI ANDRES RICARDO Director Stock Award 696 $158,302
2025-07-15 CHINN BRUCE E. Director Stock Award 696 $158,302
2025-07-15 HOLT VICTORIA M Director Stock Award 696 $158,302
2025-07-15 PLUMMER WILLIAM B Director Stock Award 696 $158,302
2025-07-15 MAZZARELLA KATHLEEN M. Director Stock Award 1,063 $241,774
2025-07-15 MENKE SEAN EDWARD Director Stock Award 696 $158,302
2025-05-30 CARRASCO RAFAEL Officer Sale 1,941 $465,840
2025-05-30 BOETTCHER CHARLES C Officer Option Exercise 15,072 $1,670,128
2025-05-30 CARRASCO RAFAEL Officer Option Exercise 2,319 $256,968
Insider transactions can signal confidence or concerns about company prospects

Wall Street Analysts

Professional analyst ratings and price targets

Consensus
BUY
24 analysts
Wells Fargo
2025-11-14
init
Overweight
Bernstein
2025-11-12
init
Outperform
Baird
2025-11-04
up
Neutral Outperform
UBS
2025-10-31
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
CIBC
2025-10-29
Maintains
Neutral Neutral
Citigroup
2025-10-29
Maintains
Buy Buy
Stifel
2025-10-29
Maintains
Buy Buy
RBC Capital
2025-10-29
Maintains
Sector Perform Sector Perform
JP Morgan
2025-10-29
Maintains
Overweight Overweight
Scotiabank
2025-10-29
Maintains
Sector Outperform Sector Outperform