WM Waste Management, Inc. - Fundamental Analysis
At a glance
Key valuation, profitability, growth, and risk metrics.
AI Analysis
Powered by advanced machine learning algorithms
Key Strengths
Key Risks
Performance Snowflake
Multi-dimensional analysis across 5 key categories
WM trades at a valuation premium to industrial peers like NOC (P/E 20.08) and PCAR (P/E 18.74), justified only by superior growth and margin profile, but current multiples appear stretched relative to near-term earnings trajectory.
- Forward P/E of 25.92 is more reasonable than current P/E of 32.89
- Price/Sales of 3.40 is in line with high-margin industrials
- Current P/E of 32.89 is significantly above sector average of 27.01
- Price/Book of 8.85 suggests equity overvaluation relative to book value
Despite robust revenue momentum and a positive 1W price change of +3.6%, the disconnect between top-line growth and bottom-line performance, combined with weak 1Y and 6M returns (-4.3%, -8.3%), suggests market skepticism about profit recovery.
- Revenue growth of 14.90% YoY indicates strong volume and pricing momentum
- Forward P/E decline suggests improving earnings expectations
- Earnings growth of -20.70% YoY contradicts revenue strength, raising sustainability concerns
- Mixed quarterly earnings surprises (2 beats in last 4 quarters) signal execution volatility
WM has delivered strong historical profitability and long-term capital appreciation, but recent earnings misses and margin pressure have disrupted the consistency of its track record, contributing to near-term underperformance.
- Consistent profitability with operating margin of 18.87% and gross margin of 39.99%
- Long-term share price appreciation of +85.7% over 5 years demonstrates compounding value creation
- Earnings volatility evident in recent quarters, including -5.7% and -8.6% misses
- 1Y return of -4.3% underperforms sector peers like MMM (+29.7%) and NOC (+13.5%)
WM’s financial leverage exceeds peer norms (e.g., PCAR at 0.82, NOC at 1.09), and weak liquidity metrics suggest limited buffer against downturns, though essential service cash flows provide some offset.
- No reported cash burn; business generates stable operating cash flow typical of waste sector
- Debt levels manageable given asset base and contracted revenue streams
- Debt/Equity ratio of 2.45 is above sector average of 1.77, increasing financial risk
- Current and quick ratios below 1.0 indicate potential short-term liquidity constraints
WM maintains a reliable and well-covered dividend policy typical of mature industrials, though the yield is less attractive than some peers, and lack of dividend growth visibility limits upside for income-focused investors.
- Dividend yield of 1.58% is modest but supported by a sustainable 50.79% payout ratio
- Consistent annual dividend of $3.30 reflects capital allocation discipline
- Yield below some high-dividend peers, limiting appeal in income portfolios
- No data on 5-year yield trend or dividend growth history
Stock Price & Analyst Targets
Real-time price movements and analyst price targets
Multi-Horizon Performance vs Peers
Price momentum across 5Y → 1W horizons for WM and closest competitors.
| Company | 5Y | 3Y | 1Y | 6M | 1M | 1W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
Primary
|
+85.7% | +39.5% | -4.3% | -8.3% | -2.1% | +3.6% |
|
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Peer
|
+93.9% | +17.1% | +13.5% | +19.0% | -8.4% | -1.9% |
|
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
Peer
|
+189.6% | +89.8% | +41.2% | +21.7% | +7.1% | -2.9% |
|
MMM
3M Company
Peer
|
+39.8% | +72.8% | +29.7% | +11.0% | +9.7% | +2.1% |
|
TT
Trane Technologies plc
Peer
|
+193.4% | +145.3% | +2.9% | -2.1% | -1.0% | -3.8% |
Positive values indicate cumulative gains over the specified period. Comparables pulled from the same sector to highlight whether momentum is stock-specific or industry-wide.
Historical Performance Trends
Long-term financial metrics and growth patterns
Revenue & Net Income
Profit & Operating Margins
Return on Equity (ROE)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Valuation Metrics
Key valuation ratios and pricing indicators
Profitability
Profit margins and return metrics
Growth
Revenue and earnings growth rates
Financial Health
Balance sheet strength and liquidity metrics
Quarterly Earnings History
EPS performance vs analyst estimates
Industrials Sector Comparison
Similar Companies
Peer comparison within the same industry
| Company | AI Rating | Market Cap | P/E | ROE | Profit Margin | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
|
NEUTRAL | $84.27B | 32.89 | 29.3% | 10.3% | $209.17 | |
|
NOC
Northrop Grumman Corporation
|
BULLISH | $79.64B | 20.08 | 26.2% | 9.8% | $558.0 | |
|
JCI
Johnson Controls International plc
|
NEUTRAL | $78.66B | 44.97 | 11.4% | 13.9% | $118.72 | |
|
MMM
3M Company
|
NEUTRAL | $90.64B | 26.73 | 72.9% | 13.7% | $167.58 | |
|
TT
Trane Technologies plc
|
BULLISH | $92.72B | 31.95 | 37.2% | 13.9% | $418.16 |
Recent Insider Trading
Insider buy and sell transactions from the last 6 months
| Date | Insider | Position | Transaction | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | REED DAVID L. | Chief Financial Officer | Stock Award | 2,628 | - |
| 2025-11-03 | MENKE SEAN EDWARD | Director | Purchase | 2,000 | $392,840 |
| 2025-09-04 | STITH KIMBERLY G. | Officer | Sale | 100 | $22,520 |
| 2025-09-02 | HEMMER TARA J | Officer | Stock Award | 9,130 | - |
| 2025-07-15 | BENE THOMAS L | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-07-15 | SYLVESTER MARYROSE T | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-07-15 | GLUSKI ANDRES RICARDO | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-07-15 | CHINN BRUCE E. | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-07-15 | HOLT VICTORIA M | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-07-15 | PLUMMER WILLIAM B | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-07-15 | MAZZARELLA KATHLEEN M. | Director | Stock Award | 1,063 | $241,774 |
| 2025-07-15 | MENKE SEAN EDWARD | Director | Stock Award | 696 | $158,302 |
| 2025-05-30 | CARRASCO RAFAEL | Officer | Sale | 1,941 | $465,840 |
| 2025-05-30 | BOETTCHER CHARLES C | Officer | Option Exercise | 15,072 | $1,670,128 |
| 2025-05-30 | CARRASCO RAFAEL | Officer | Option Exercise | 2,319 | $256,968 |
Wall Street Analysts
Professional analyst ratings and price targets